The automotive challenges between markets and politics. Marius Baader April 9, 2014 International Spring Makers Conference, Düsseldorf
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1 The automotive challenges between markets and politics Marius Baader April 9, 2014 International Spring Makers Conference, Düsseldorf
2 Structure I. Economic Framework II. International Automotive Markets III. The German Automotive Market IV. The German Automotive Industry & its Political Challenges Page 2
3 I Global Economy GDP Forecasts China: Contradictory India: Will the elections safe us? Russia: Risky US: Winter passes by Euro Area: Moving forward Source: Consensus Forecasts March 2014, Feri February 2014 * partly estimated ** forecast Page 3
4 I Growth of the Global Economy Global GDP: growth rates by decade Global GDP: growth rates % World Advanced Emerging 8% World Advanced Emerging 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 1980er 1990er 2000er 2010er 0% Source: IMF Page 4
5 I Growth History Emerging Markets 12.0% % 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 4.3% 2.0% 10.9% 7.5% 5.4% 3.2% 8.2% 4.1% 5.7% 5.7% 6.6% 5.3% 4.6% 2.6% Brazil China Turkey India Indonesia Vietnam Russia Source: IMF Page 5
6 Structure I. Economic Framework II. International Automotive Markets III. The German Automotive Market IV. The German Automotive Industry & its Political Challenges Page 6
7 II International PC Markets (Units in 1,000) Russia* +39% +11% -5% -2% 2,654 2,939 2,777 2,722 12,734 14,442 USA* 15,532 15,961 12, p Western Europe China 13,239 11,773 11,554 11,741 12,214 16,304 17, % +13% +8% +3% -1% -8% -2% +2% +8% +8% +23% +7% p p p Mercosur* 4,271 4,431 4,504 4,439 India +6% +10% -7% -2% 2,514 2,761 2,554 2, p 5 ASEAN +4% +32% +6% -1% 1,483 1,958 2,080 2, p 7 +7% +4% +2% -1% p p: forecast * Light vehicles Source: Ward s, Anfavea, Adefa, ACEA, VDA, SIAM, CAAM/Fourin, AEB, Gaikindo. Page 7
8 II Passenger Car Markets (I/II) seasonally adjusted trend Source: ACEA, National Transport Authorities Page 8
9 II Passenger Car Markets (II/II) seasonally adjusted trend Source: ACEA, JAMA, ANFAVEA, SIAM Page 9
10 II Global Passenger Car Market 2020 Mercosur 2% Russia 3% India 1% China 0% Rest of the World 11% 40.2 m Triad 84% Mercosur 6% Russia 4% India 3% Rest of the World 17% China 22% 73.1 m Triad 47% Mercosur 6% Russia 5% India 6% Rest of the World 18% 91.8 m China 26% Triad 40% * * forecast Source: VDA Page 10
11 III Car Parc & Car Density in Selected Countries Car Parc (in million units) 300 Car Density (PCs per 1,000 inhabitants) Germany USA Brazil Russia India China Germany USA Brazil Russia India China Source: VDA Page 11
12 III Market Shares of German OEM Market Shares of German Company Brands 2013/2012 Western Europe* New EU Countries* USA Brazil Russia China* Japan* South Korea* South Africa Mexico* 8.5% (8.8%) 19.3% (21.6%) 21.1% (20.9%) 20.5% (21.4%) 4.8% (4.1%) 8.7% (6.9%) 20.2% (19.0%) 50.5% (50.1%) 45.9% (46.2%) % (40.8%) Source: VDA Page 12
13 Structure I. Economic Framework II. International Automotive Markets III. The German Automotive Market IV. The German Automotive Industry & its Political Challenges Page 13
14 III Domestic PC-Market 600,000 New registrations passenger cars domestic order intake 3.34 m 3.47 m 3.15 m 3.09 m 3.81 m 2.91 m 3.17 m 3.08 m 2.95 m 3.0 m*) 500, ,000 Jan.-Mar. 2014: New Reg.: +6% 300, , , Source: Federal Motor Transport Authority, VDA, VDIK * Forecast Page 14
15 Structure I. Economic Framework II. International Automotive Markets III. The German Automotive Market IV. The German Automotive Industry & its Political Challenges Page 15
16 IV Increasing Employment in the German AI 800, , ,039 (+ 4%) 748,425 (+ 2%) 761,450 (+ 2%) 600, ,726 +4% ±0% 291,527 (+1%) 400,000 29,235 +5% +2% 31,372 (+1%) 200, ,002 +4% +4% 438,551 (+2%) 0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 OEM Body/Trailer Suppliers Source: Federal Statistical Office Germany Page 16
17 IV Sales of the German AI OEM Body/Trailer Suppliers total domestic non-domestic total domestic non-domestic total domestic non-domestic 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 1% -3% 2% 9% 9% 9% % 0% -20% 3% -1% 7% 15% 11% 18% % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 2% 2% 3% 8% 8% 9% Source: Federal Statistical Office Germany Page 17
18 IV Meet Challenges with Innovations Figures for 2012 R&D-Expenditure of the German Industry Automotive Industry: More than 90,000 Empolyees in R&D 27 % 32 % OTHER INDUSTRIES 6 % 8 % 10 % 17 % 10 Patents per Workingday Automotive Ind. Electronics Mechanical Engin. Pharmaceuticals Chemical Ind. Source: Stifterverband Page 18
19 IV R&D-Expenditure of the German AI R&D-Expenditure in bn bn (+9%) 25.2 bn bn 10.2 bn (+14%) non-domestic bn 17.4 bn (+6%) domestic Source: Stifterverband Page 19
20 IV German OEM: PC-Order Intake und World Production World Production and Order Intake Order Intake Feb. 2014: +8% Jan.-Feb. 2014: +8% World Production of German OEM Total Order Intake, 2003=100 1,500,000 1,400,000 1,300,000 1,200, World Production Feb. 2014: +10% Jan.-Feb 2014: +9% 1,100,000 1,000, , , , Source: VDA Page
21 IV German OEM: Passenger Car-Production Domestic (in 1,000) Abroad (in 1,000) Source: VDA Page 21
22 IV Passenger Car Export Partners Europe Overseas % 700 5% % 252-8% % -1% -3% Jan-Dec 2012: 2,454,000 Jan-Dec 2013: 2,475,400 (+1%) -1% -16% % -6% -2% Jan-Dec 2012: 1,677,300 Jan-Dec 2013: 1,722,100 (+3%) -15% % 19% -10% 0% % 17% 20% 25% % 271 Source: VDA Page 22
23 IV Market Access is crucial for Exports Source: VDA Page 23
24 IV EU Target on Carbon Dioxide Reduction until 2020: The World s most ambitious! US-Target exceeds EU-Target by 28% 121g 117g 105g 95g 5.2l 5.0l 4.5l 3.8l USA China Japan EU Source: Cologne Institute for Economic Research, VDA Page 24
25 IV International Carbon Dioxide-Regulations Carbon Dioxide-Emissions of newly registered Passenger Cars in g/km New Regs Actual Values Approved Thresholds In Legislative Process In Consideration Source: Cologne Institute for Economic Research Page 25
26 IV Reduction of German Company Brands Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Germany Average Carbon Dioxide Emissions of German Company Brands Cars in Germany grams, i.e % g CO 2 /km Jan-14 Source: Federal Motor Transport Authority, VDA-Calculations Page 26
27 IV International EV-Markets USA 52,526 95,963 (+83%) South Korea (+28%) Japan 30,232 26,910 (+12%) Australia (+16%) Netherlands 5,491 22,797 (+315%) Russia (+159%) France 14,728 9,975 (+48%) South Africa 0 34 China 10,857 8,300 (+31%) Brazil 0 20 Norway 8,564 4,350 (+97%) India 3 1 (+200%) 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80, , , Source: IHS driven by Polk Page 27
28 Electric Vehicles in Germany New Registrations New Regs. of Electric-Vehicles: Feb. 2014: 607 (+6%) Jan.-Feb. 2014: 1,297 (+23%) New Regs. by Segment: Electric Vehicles (BEV & Plug-In) Segment Jan. - Feb. 14 Share Small % Compact % Mini % Mini-Van 4 0.3% Medium % Luxury % Others % Sports Car 2 0.2% SUV 4 0.3% Total 1, % New Regs. of Electronic Vehicles (BEV & Plug-In) 1, % 1, % 1, % % % 200 0% % Change comp. to prev. Year New Regs. Electric Vehicles (incl. Plug-in) Trend Source: Federal Motor Transport Authority, VDA-Calculations Page 28
29 Thank you very much for your attention! Page 29
30 Annex
31 Global Passenger Car Market Outlook (Units in 1,000) /- 12/11 in % /- 13/12 in % Forecast /- 14/13 in % USA* 14, , , Mexico* , , Mercosur* 4, , ,439-1 China 13, , , India 2, , ,503-2 South Korea 1, , , Japan 4, , ,380-4 Turkey Russia* 2, , ,722-2 New EU W. Europe 11, , , World total 69, , , World w/o China 55, , , * incl. Light Trucks ** partly estimated Source: VDA, Polk Page 31
32 Global Passenger Car Production Outlook (Units in 1,000) /- 12/11 in % 2013** +/- 13/12 in % Forecast /- 14/13 in % NAFTA** 15, , , USA 10, , , Mercosur** 3, , , China 13, , , India 3, , , South Korea 4, , , Japan 8, , ,083-1 Turkey Russia** 1, , , New EU 3, , , W. Europe 11, , , World total 70, , , World w/o China 57, , , * incl. Light Trucks ** partly estimated Source: VDA, Polk Page 32
33 Global Commercial Vehicle Market >6t Outlook (Units in 1,000) /- 12/11 in % /- 13/12 in % Forecast /- 14/13 in % W. Europe New EU Turkey* Russia China , , India* Japan USA Brazil #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! World total 2, , , #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! World w/o China 1, , , * Commercial Vehicles >3,5t Page 33
34 II International CV Markets (>6t) Russia Western Europe NAFTA 375, , , , % +14% +1% +2% p +26% -9% +5% -3% 259, , , , p +95% +15% -16% +0% 116, , , , p 1,172,600 Brazil +10% % -20% +12% +1% 164, , , , p p: forecast * Trucks over 3.5t GVV 302, , ,000-12% -29% +2% p Source: ACEA, Anfavea, Anpact, ASN, Fourin, SIAM, Wards 1,060,943 1,061, ,270 India* 344,264 China -9% -21% +15% ±0% p Page 34
35 II CV-Markets (>6t) seasonally adjusted trend thousands Western Europe : +3% thousands USA thousands % -9% +5% -3% p Brazil p : -4% +10% -20% +12% +1% thousands Source: VDA, National Transport Authorities p : +5% +41% +13% +2% +4% China p : +19% -9% -21% +15% +0% Page 35
36 III New Registrations of CV over 6t 2013 on previous year s level February 2014: +35 percent Jan.-Feb. 2014: +18 percent Forecast 2014: 81,000 (+1 percent) Monthly New Regs. CV >6t, Trend and Seasonally Adjusted Values 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 85,463 94,524 99,809 98,189 61,201 73,685 89,238 80,700 80,533 81,000 4,000 2, p p: Forecast Source: VDA, Federal Motor Transport Authority Page 36
37 III New Registrations of CV up to 6t 2013: -3 percent February 2014: +14 percent Jan.-Feb. 2014: +9 percent Forecast 2014: 228,000 (+4 percent) Monthly New Regs. CV <6t, Trend and Seasonally Adjusted Values 25,000 20,000 15,000 10, , , , , , , , , , ,000 5, p p: Forecast Source: VDA, Federal Motor Transport Authority Page 37
38 IV Passenger Car Production Abroad by Country German OEMs operate globally China still booming Passenger car production abroad of German OEM s 3,600 3,300 3,000 2,700 2, % 2,892 3,473 Jan.-Dec. 2012: 8,235,816 cars Jan.-Dec. 2013: 8,633,658 cars (+5%) Spain most important European location outside Germany 2,100 1,800 1,500 1, % -13% -3% -4% -13% China Spain Brazil USA Czech Rep % -4% -9% +0% Mexico Slovakia Poland Belgium South Africa +5% 954 1,007 Other Source: VDA Page 38
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