PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS. Introduction to Probability Distributions
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1 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS Introduction to Probability Distributions
2 What is a Probability Distribution? Experiment: Toss a coin three times. Observe the number of heads. The possible results are: zero heads, one head, two heads, and three heads. What is the probability distribution for the number of heads?
3 Probability Distribution of Number of Heads Observed in 3 Tosses of a Coin
4 Characteristics of a Probability Distribution
5 Discrete Probability Distribution 1. List of All possible [x, p(x)] pairs x = Value of Random Variable (Outcome) p(x) = Probability Associated with Value 2. Mutually Exclusive (No Overlap) 3. Collectively Exhaustive (Nothing Left Out) 4. 0 p(x) 1 5. p(x) = 1 5
6 Random Variables Random variable - a quantity resulting from an experiment that, by chance, can assume different values.
7 Types of Random Variables Discrete Random Variable can assume only certain clearly separated values. It is usually the result of counting something Continuous Random Variable can assume an infinite number of values within a given range. It is usually the result of some type of measurement
8 Discrete Random Variables - Examples The number of students in a class. The number of children in a family. The number of cars entering a carwash in a hour. Number of home mortgages approved by Coastal Federal Bank last week.
9 Continuous Random Variables - Examples The distance students travel to class. The time it takes an executive to drive to work. The length of an afternoon nap. The length of time of a particular phone call.
10 Features of a Discrete Distribution The main features of a discrete probability distribution are: The sum of the probabilities of the various outcomes is The probability of a particular outcome is between 0 and The outcomes are mutually exclusive.
11 The Mean of a Probability Distribution MEAN The mean is a typical value used to represent the central location of a probability distribution. The mean of a probability distribution is also referred to as its expected value.
12 The Variance, and Standard Deviation of a Probability Distribution Variance and Standard Deviation Measures the amount of spread in a distribution The computational steps are: 1. Subtract the mean from each value, and square this difference. 2. Multiply each squared difference by its probability. 3. Sum the resulting products to arrive at the variance. The standard deviation is found by taking the positive square root of the variance.
13 Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation of a Probability Distribution - Example John Ragsdale sells new cars for Pelican Ford. John usually sells the largest number of cars on Saturday. He has developed the following probability distribution for the number of cars he expects to sell on a particular Saturday.
14 Mean of a Probability Distribution - Example
15 Variance and Standard Deviation of a Probability Distribution - Example
16 Example 2
17 Example 2
18 Example 2
19 Example 2
20 Example 2
21 Summary Measures mu 1. Expected Value Mean of Probability Distribution Weighted Average of All Possible Values = E(X) = x p(x) 2. Variance Sigma -squared Weighted Average Squared Deviation about Mean 2 = V(X)= E[ (x (x p(x) 2 = V(X)=E(X [E(X 3. Standard Deviation 2 = SD(X) 21
22 Binomial Probability Distribution Characteristics of a Binomial Probability Distribution There are only two possible outcomes on a particular trial of an experiment. The outcomes are mutually exclusive, The random variable is the result of counts. Each trial is independent of any other trial
23 Binomial Probability Formula
24 Binomial Probability - Example There are five flights daily from Pittsburgh via US Airways into the Bradford, Pennsylvania, Regional Airport. Suppose the probability that any flight arrives late is.20. What is the probability that none of the flights are late today?
25 Binomial Probability - Excel
26 Binomial Dist. Mean and Variance
27 Binomial Dist. Mean and Variance: Example For the example regarding the number of late flights, recall that =.20 and n = 5. What is the average number of late flights? What is the variance of the number of late flights?
28 Binomial Dist. Mean and Variance: Another Solution
29 Binomial Distribution - Table Five percent of the worm gears produced by an automatic, highspeed Carter-Bell milling machine are defective. What is the probability that out of six gears selected at random none will be defective? Exactly one? Exactly two? Exactly three? Exactly four? Exactly five? Exactly six out of six?
30 Binomial Distribution - MegaStat Five percent of the worm gears produced by an automatic, high-speed Carter-Bell milling machine are defective. What is the probability that out of six gears selected at random none will be defective? Exactly one? Exactly two? Exactly three? Exactly four? Exactly five? Exactly six out of six?
31 Binomial Shapes for Varying (n constant)
32 Binomial Shapes for Varying n ( constant)
33 Cumulative Binomial Probability Distributions A study in June 2003 by the Illinois Department of Transportation concluded that 76.2 percent of front seat occupants used seat belts. A sample of 12 vehicles is selected. What is the probability the front seat occupants in at least 7 of the 12 vehicles are wearing seat belts?
34 Cumulative Binomial Probability Distributions - Excel
35 Finite Population A finite population is a population consisting of a fixed number of known individuals, objects, or measurements. Examples include: The number of students in this class. The number of cars in the parking lot. The number of homes built in Temerloh
36 Hypergeometric Distribution The hypergeometric distribution has the following characteristics: There are only 2 possible outcomes. The probability of a success is not the same on each trial. It results from a count of the number of successes in a fixed number of trials.
37 Hypergeometric Distribution Use the hypergeometric distribution to find the probability of a specified number of successes or failures if: the sample is selected from a finite population without replacement the size of the sample n is greater than 5% of the size of the population N (i.e. n/n.05)
38 Hypergeometric Distribution
39 Hypergeometric Distribution - Example PlayTime Toys, Inc., employs 50 people in the Assembly Department. Forty of the employees belong to a union and ten do not. Five employees are selected at random to form a committee to meet with management regarding shift starting times. What is the probability that four of the five selected for the committee belong to a union?
40 Hypergeometric Distribution - Example
41 Hypergeometric Distribution - Excel
42 Poisson Probability Distribution The Poisson probability distribution describes the number of times some event occurs during a specified interval. The interval may be time, distance, area, or volume. Assumptions of the Poisson Distribution (1) The probability is proportional to the length of the interval. (2) The intervals are independent.
43 Poisson Probability Distribution The Poisson distribution can be described mathematically using the formula:
44 Poisson Probability Distribution The mean number of successes can be determined in binomial situations by n, where n is the number of trials and the probability of a success. The variance of the Poisson distribution is also equal to n.
45 Poisson Probability Distribution - Example Assume baggage is rarely lost by Northwest Airlines. Suppose a random sample of 1,000 flights shows a total of 300 bags were lost. Thus, the arithmetic mean number of lost bags per flight is 0.3 (300/1,000). If the number of lost bags per flight follows a Poisson distribution with u = 0.3, find the probability of not losing any bags.
46 Poisson Probability Distribution - Table Assume baggage is rarely lost by Northwest Airlines. Suppose a random sample of 1,000 flights shows a total of 300 bags were lost. Thus, the arithmetic mean number of lost bags per flight is 0.3 (300/1,000). If the number of lost bags per flight follows a Poisson distribution with mean = 0.3, find the probability of not losing any bags
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