Modelling evaluation of PM10 exposure in Northern Italy in the framework of CityDeltaIII project
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1 Modelling evaluation of PM1 exposure in Northern Italy in the framework of CityDeltaIII project C. Carnevale, G. Finzi, E. Pisoni, M. Volta Dipartimento di Elettronica per l Automazione Università degli Studi di Brescia
2 Index 1. The GAMES modelling system 2. The Transport Chemical Aerosol Model (TCAM) 3. The CityDelta III base case simulation 4. Emission reduction scenarios 5. Conclusion
3 GAMES: Gas Aerosol Modelling Evaluation System Land use Topography MM5 output Emission inventories Meterological Pre-processor 3D wind and temperature fields Turbolence and Boundary Layer parameters Emission Model Temporal Profiles Initial and Boundary condition Pre-processors Boundary and Initial condition TCAM Emission Fields VOC speciation Profiles 3D concentration fields Continental model output System Evaluation Tool
4 TCAM: Transport and Depostion Module Eulerian 3D model Terrain-following co-ordinate system Horizontal Transport Module: Chapeau Function + Forester Filter Vertical Transport Module: Crank-Nicholson hybrid solver based on the vertical diffusivity coefficient Deposition Module Dry deposition: resistance-based approach Wet deposition: scavenging approach for both gas and aerosol species
5 TCAM: Gas chemical module Chemical Mechanism CBIV 9 SAPRC 9/97 COCOH 97 Species: 95 Reactions: 187 Numerical Solver QSSA (explicit) IEH (hybrid) Fast-Species (12): LSODE (implicit) Slow-Species: Adams-Bashforth (explicit)
6 TCAM: Aerosol module Chemical Species: inorganics 9 organics Size Classes: 1 (da.1 µm a 5 µm) Fixed moving approach Involved Phenomena: Condensation/Evaporation Nucleation SO 2 aqueus chemistry Shell Core
7 Y UTM (km) Base case: simulation domain NOVARA MILANO (m asl) x3 km 2 Horizontal resolution: 5x5 km 2 Vertical resolution: 11 varying thickness levels 1st level: 2m Simulation year: X UTM (km)
8 Base case: gas emission fields (ton/year) VOC NOVARA MILANO NH NOVARA MILANO NOx NOVARA MILANO SOx NOVARA MI LANO
9 Base case: PM emission fields (ton/year) PM1 PM NOVARA MILANO NOVARA MILANO
10 Base case: PM1 concentration maps (µg/m 3 ) 515 Year NOVARA MIL ANO Winter TORINO 495 NOVARA MILANO TORINO NOVARA MIL ANO Summer 49 5 TORINO
11 Y UTM (km) Base case: monitoring station (µg/m 3 ) Saronno NOVARA MILANO 5 TORINO X UTM (km) (m asl) Station Yearly Mean Winter Mean Summer Mean
12 Base case: Yearly performance Mean value (µg/m3) 95 Perc (µg/m3) OBS TCAM OBS TCAM Correlation NBIAS
13 Base case: Winter performances OBS TCAM Mean value (mg/m3) 95 Perc (mg/m3) OBS TCAM Correlation NBIAS
14 Base case: Summer performances OBS TCAM Mean value (µg/m 3 ) 95 Perc (µg/m 3 ) OBS TCAM Correlation NBIAS
15 Y UTM (km) Impact assessment: CLE and MFR (µg/m3) 515 SCENARIO NOx VOC PM2.5 PM1 SO2 NH3 Base Case BC (kt/y/domain) CLE-City Emission scenario 22 CLE - BC -54% -58% -57% -53% -54% -6% 22 MFR - BC -74% -58% -57% -53% -54% -6% 22 CLECity - BC -54% -58% -77% -68% -54% -6% CLE-BC MFR-BC 515 PM2.5 NE NW N W 5 TORINO 55 C NOVARA MILANO SE TORINO SW NOVARA MILANO S X UTM (km) E (m asl) NOVARA MI LANO 55 5 NOVARA MILANO TORINO
16 Impact assessment: CLE and MFR (µg/m3) SCENARIO NOx VOC PM2.5 PM1 SO2 NH3 Base Case BC (kt/y/domain) CLE - BC -54% -58% -57% -53% -54% -6% 22 MFR - BC -74% -58% -57% -53% -54% -6% 22 CLECity - BC -54% -58% -77% -68% -54% -6% CLE-BC MFR-BC NOVARA MILANO -2 NOVARA MILANO -2 5 TORINO TORINO
17 Impact assessment: CLECity (µg/m3) SCENARIO NOx VOC PM2.5 PM1 SO2 NH3 Base Case BC (kt/y/domain) CLE - BC -54% -58% -57% -53% -54% -6% 22 MFR - BC -74% -58% -57% -53% -54% -6% 22 CLECity - BC -54% -58% -77% -68% -54% -6% CLECity-BC CLECity-CLE NOVARA MILANO NOVARA MILANO TORINO TORINO AL ESSANDRIA
18 Y UTM (km) Impact assessment: point analisys Yearly Mean (µg/m 3 ) NE (m asl) 5 55 NW W C 5 TORINO 495 SE SW S N NOVARA MILANO E NW N NE W C E SW S SE Base Case CLE MFR CLE-City X UTM (km)
19 Conclusions Quite good performance in terms of mean values both in winter and summer; Correlation lower than.65 in all the station CAUSES? Evaluation of impact of different scenarios CLE and MFR scenarios can strongly reduce PM1 in central part of the domain CLE-City only influence Milan urban area
20 Thanks Dr. M. Bedogni (AMA, Milano) and Dr. G. Pirovano (CESI Ricerca, Milano) and all the CityDelta I-II-III community for the cooperation and the help during all this 5 years of simulations, base cases and scenarios
21 Y UTM (km) Base case: PM1 mean chemical composition 1% 9% 8% 515 7% NE 51 NW N 55 W NOVARA MILANO C 5 TORINO 495 SE SW S E (m asl) % 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % NW N NE W C E SW S SE Other EC+OC SO4= NO3- NH4+ X UTM (km)
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