Camilla Andersson, SMHI. ACCEPTED-projektet och resultat från andra Europeiska studier

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1 Camilla Andersson, SMHI ACCEPTED-projektet och resultat från andra Europeiska studier

2 ACCEPTED ACCEPTED is a research program that aims to improve our understanding of future exposure situations in cities and their impact on health, from an interdisciplinary approach. This will be achieved by using various models and pollution measurements and epidemiological studies and reviews. Bertil Forsberg koordinerar

3 Global climate Regional climate Emission scenarios Global air quality Regional air quality Ultimately we will simulate scenarios of future urban climate and air quality, combine future exposure scenarios, population scenarios and exposure-response functions to describe the effects of different trends and relevant policies on burden of illness attributed to urban pollutants and the interactions with extreme temperatures. Urban climate Urban air quality Through scenario-based health impact assessments Health Impact Assessment Population scenarios Exposureresponse Indooroutdoor Personal exposure Funded by the European network ERA-ENVHEALTH (Swedish EPA, ADEME, ANSES, BelSPO, UBA) Project duration Dec 2012-Nov 2015

to urban pollutants and the interactions with extreme temperatures.

4 Pågående arbete (urval) O3-mätningar på skolgårdar & bostäder, Uppsala Inne och ute (passiv provtagare Ogawa) Mätning pågår inne hos 30 barn i Uppsala Samtidigt mätning utomhus - finansieras av pilotstudie inom HÄMI

Ogawa) Mätning pågår inne hos 30 barn i Uppsala

5 Mer pågående arbete (urval) Utvärdering av Low emission Zones/mitigations Stockholm, Augsburg, Berlin, München Framtagning av framtida urbanklimat och framtida lufthalter Utsläppsscenarier (2020, 2030), framtida klimat (2050) Paris, Stockholm, Bryssel, Augsburg

Framtagning av framtida urbanklimat och framtida lufthalter

6 Web page: Sign up for the newsletter! Håll utkik efter möteskallelse! Someresultsfrom earlier projects

Source classification of Stockholm background air and associated health impacts 1997-2010 Jönsson, O., Andersson, C., Forsberg, B. & Johansson, C. 2012.

7 Source classification of Stockholm background air and associated health impacts Jönsson, O., Andersson, C., Forsberg, B. & Johansson, C Air pollution episodes in Stockholm regional background air due to European source regions and their effects on human population. Boreal Environment Research, Soot highest 10% ( ) Climatology ( ) Eastern Europe is the main (almost single) contributor to the highest 10% concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, BC and accumulation mode particles in Stockholm background air For surface ozone we see the same tendency but not as clear Eastern Europe causes the highest concentrations but since south-west is the predominant wind direction emissions in south-western Europe still causes the largest health impacts overall. Policy implications/future work For health impacts decrease should be in the south-west, but in order to decrease the very highest levels the focus should be on decreasing emissions in south-eastern Europe. The new data set can be used for future model and emission evaluation. 7

Soot highest 10% (2004-2010) Climatology (1997-2010) Eastern Europe is the main (almost single) contributor to the highest 10% concentrations of PM2.

8 IMPORT project ~ premature deaths In Europeduetofine PM in regional background air Larger health impacts of primary PM than secondary despite higher concofsecondarydueto correlation with population and larger assumed relative risk

impacts of primary PM than secondary despite higher

9 Andersson, Engardt & Langner future surface ozone over Europe CTM: MATCH Multi-scale Atmospheric Transport and CHemistry Eulerian three dimensional chemistry transport model ~60 chemical species Transport (advection and mixing) Natural emissions (sea salt, isoprene) Deposition Chemistry (photo-, wet-, thermal-, ~130 reactions in kpp) Particle components: sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, ec, oc, (anthr) dust, sea salt Input data 3D met, every 6 hours Anthr Emissions Boundary and initial concentrations Deposition velocities Etc 3-dimensional meteorological fields Emissions Boundary conc, parameters etc. 3-dimensional transport and chemistry model (MATCH) Land use 9

reactions in kpp) Particle components: sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, ec, oc, (anthr) dust, sea salt Input data 3D met, every 6 hours Anthr Emissions Boundary and

10 Andersson, Engardt & Langner future surface ozone over Europe Sensitivity to global climate model and GHG emission scenario to ECHAM5(A1B)-RCA3-MATCH HadCM3(A1B)-RCA3-MATCH Temperature increase is stronger in HadCM3 than in ECHAM5 Langner et al. 2012, ACP 10

1990-2009 to 2040-2059 ECHAM5(A1B)-RCA3-MATCH HadCM3(A1B)-RCA3-MATCH

Andersson, Engardt & Langner future surface ozone over Europe Health consequences of change in surface ozone due to climate change in 30 European countries, 1961-1990 to 2021-2050 Mortality (absolute

11 Andersson, Engardt & Langner future surface ozone over Europe Health consequences of change in surface ozone due to climate change in 30 European countries, to Mortality (absolute #cases) Hospitalizations (absolute #cases) ECHAM4 (A2)- RCA3-MATCH HadCM3 (A1B)-RCA3-MATCH ECHAM4 (A2)- RCA3-MATCH HadCM3 (A1B)-RCA3-MATCH Germany Greece Sweden Europe Orru et al 2012 Mortality: Hospitalization

1961 1990 2021 2050 1961 1990 1990 2009 2021 2050 2041 2060 Germany 2167 2562 2675 2723 2903 2945 2771 3276 3421 3482 3712 3766 Greece 1007 1052 956 984 1020 1045 1481 1546 1405 1447 1499 1536 Sweden

Andersson, Engardt & Langner future surface ozone over Europe Changes in anthropogenic precursor emissions have stronger effect than climate change in Europe!

12 Andersson, Engardt & Langner future surface ozone over Europe Changes in anthropogenic precursor emissions have stronger effect than climate change in Europe! from to ECHAM5 (A1B)-RCA3-MATCH (climate change only) ECHAM5-RCA3-MATCH+RCP4.5 (RCP4.5 emisand climate change) RCP4.5 emissions - representative concentration pathways to 4.5 W/m2 at is the most similar to CO2 emissions of A1B at Strong decreases of Nox and VOC in Europe by 2050 and then flattening out - Comparable (with some differences) emission decreases as in the EMEP and IIASA- PRIMES scenarios Langner et al

5 emissions - representative concentration pathways to 4.

Andersson, Engardt & Langner future surface ozone over Europe Downscaling effect of climate change and future emissions over cities SUDPLAN (www.sudplan.

A1B-r3 climate and RCP4.5 emissions in Europe. Local emissions as of 2010 (left) and projected Reference 2030 (right). Resolution 2x2 km.

13 Andersson, Engardt & Langner future surface ozone over Europe Downscaling effect of climate change and future emissions over cities SUDPLAN ( 140 O 3 max 8-hour Surface ozone (left) and (right) in the city center of Stockholm, based on ECHAM5 A1B-r3 climate and RCP4.5 emissions in Europe. Local emissions as of 2010 (left) and projected Reference 2030 (right). Resolution 2x2 km. Gidhagen et al 2012 measurements at Torkel Knutsson urban background station based on ECHAM5 A1B_3 climate & RCP4.5 emission scenarios 13 based on HadCM3 A1B climate & RCP4.5 emission scenarios

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Camilla Margareta Andersson

Short CV Camilla Margareta Andersson Born June 12, 1979 Nationality Swedish Telephone +46(11)4958203 (work) E-mail camilla.andersson [at] smhi.se Academic degrees 2009 PhD in applied environmental science