Problematiche ed incertezze nell uso di modelli a supporto delle decisioni: esperienze con il sistema modellistico MINNI

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1 Problematiche ed incertezze nell uso di modelli a supporto delle decisioni: esperienze con il sistema modellistico MINNI F.Monforti, G. Pace, T.Pignatelli, G.Vialetto, L.Vitali, G.Zanini ENEA, Bologna and Casaccia Research Centres G.Brusasca, G.Calori, S.Finardi, P.Radice, C.Silibello ARIANET, Milano 19 ottobre 26 Workshop ISAC

2 MINNI non è ma il Modello Integrato Nazionale a supporto della Negoziazione internazionale sui temi dell Inquinamento atmosferico

3 Emission Projections Atmospheric Modelling System RAINS Italy MINNI National Integrated Model Atmospheric Transfer Matrix

4 The MINNI Project Summary Info A 3 year project for the development of a National Integrated Modelling System (started in mid 22); Financed by ENEA and the Italian Ministry for the Environment (total investment 1,268 million euros); Carried out under the leadership of ENEA in cooperation with ARIANET and IIASA.

5 The MINNI Project Ultimate Objectives RAINS-Italy; Scenario Analysis for pollutants, O3 and PM; the Göteborg Protocol Environment and health impact (acidification, eutrofication, impact on vegetation, effect of PM and ozone on human health); Policy assessment and abatement measures; cost effectiveness Support to stakeholders and policy makers. of

6 The MINNI Project Computational domain Grid square cells 2 x 2 Km2

7 The MINNI Project Atmospheric modelling system Local data ECMWF fields RAMS Emission Manager Reference Meteorological year Meteorological Sub-system Space,time, species info Reference inventory Reference Emission year Emission sub-system EMEP B.C. FARM Chemical-trasport sub-system Concentration Deposition fiekds Transfer matrices RAINS

8 Flexible Air quality Regional Model (FARM) (included in the EEA Model Documentation System) GAS PHASE Assigned through FCM pre-processor (Kumar et al., 1995); currently adopted: SAPRC-9 (Carter, 199); SAPRC-99 (Carter, 2); adapted EMEP-acid (Hov et al., 1988). AEROSOL MODULES Aero (transfer matrices) bulk approach : Fine (-2.5 µm) Coarse (PM1 - PM2.5) Aerosol processes: sulfates, nitrates, ammonium, primary particles; excluding SOA, natural sources Aero3 CMAQ (experimental) Lognormal size distribution (sg and Dg): Aitken mode (-.1 µm) Accumulation mode ( µm) Coarse (PM1 - PM2.5) Aerosol processes: Nucleation; Coagulation; ISORROPIA equilibrium model; SOA treatment

9 Meteorological sub-system

10 FARM Input File Requirements Meteorological input files: Wind; Temperature; Water-vapor concentration; Pressure; cloud cover, base, top, water content; precipitation rate; Horizontal and vertical diffusivity (effective mixing height); Deposition velocities (gas); Aerodynamic resistance, u*, w* (aero3)

11 RAMS RAMS Computational Domains Coarse Grid Target Grid Nx Ny 46 8 Nz xy (km) 6 2 t (sec) 9 45 RAMS Simulations Details Initialisation: ECMWF Analyses, Synop observations, ECMWF soil temperature and humidity; Soil/Surface: Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere transfer model; Turbulence: Mellor & Yamada level 2.5; Microphysics: Prognostic Hydrometeor equations; Convection: Modified Kuo scheme activated; 4DDA: Nudging on pre-analysed fields;

12 ECMWF fields RAMS RAMS Re-analysis Po Valley detail SYNOPs Example for 6/1/1999 at 12: UTC 38 ECMWF plotted fields refer to 85 Hpa RAMS reanalysis reports surface wind

13 Emission sub-system

14 FARM Input File Requirements Emissions input files: Diffuse emissions; Elevated point source emissions

15 Periodo invernale: esempio pennacchi SO2 Isosuperfici a 1 e 2 ppb Periodo invernale: pennacchi

16 National emission inventory of NOX by province and sector (NUTS3 and SNAP2/3) + LPS All sectors Sector 7 (road traffic)

17 Emission module National inventory EMEP inventory (NUTS3, SNAP3) (5 km grid, SNAP1) Thematic layers Daily modulation Grid disaggregation Modulation profiles (yearly, weekly, daily) Column D Column F Column H Column J Column L Column N Column P hour Column R Column T Column V Time modulation Column X Column Z NMVOC speciation Speciation profiles Model input (hourly, gridded, speciated)

18 Chemical-transport sub-system

19 FARM Input File Requirements Air quality related input files: Initial concentrations; Boundary concentrations

20 Nesting into EMEP European model Data source for BC: EMEP boundary conditions & FARM model output Example: SO2 (21-22 Dec 1999)

21 Comparison with O3 monitoring data

22 SOMO35 - Comparison with EMEP network data (1) (sum of excess of daily maximum 8-means over a cut-off of 35 ppb calculated for all days in a year) 6 5 Dicembre Novembre Ottobre Settembre Agosto Luglio Giugno Maggio Aprile Marzo Febbraio Gennaio _M 5 5 C H H C _M 4 4 C H C H _M 3 3 C H H C 2 _M 2 C H C H 5 _M 5 AT AT 4 AT 4 _M AT SOMO35 (ppb*h) 4

23 SOMO35 - Comparison with EMEP network data (1) 6 5 Dicembre Novembre Ottobre Settembre Agosto Luglio Giugno Maggio Aprile Marzo Febbraio Gennaio M 8_ 8 SI SI M 4_ 4 IT IT M 1 _ 1 IT IT _M 2 2 U H U H M 4_ 14 1 FR FR M 8_ FR M 3 _ 8 FR D E E 3 D SOMO35 (ppb*h) 4

24 SOMO35 - Comparison between models AMS EMEP 1 5 for 1999

25 AOT4 - Comparison between models EMEP AMS for 1999 ppbh

26 Aero (transfer matrices) PM2.5= PM fine + ASO4 + ANO3 + ANH4 PM1= PM2.5 + PM coarse where: Primary fine Primary coarse PM fine PM coarse Modules to compute ASO4, ANO3 and ANH4

27 Average PM1 concentrations Primary Secondary Yearly avg. conc. Secondary PM dominant!

28 Calculation of S-R relationships for RAINS/Italy Emi SOx Dep S Contributions (%) to yearly total depositions % Emi NOx Dep oxn Piemonte Lazio Sicilia

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