Soil Acidification in China: Will PM control undermine the efforts?

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1 Session 3: Soils and Geologic Networks Soil Acidification in China: Will PM control undermine the efforts? Yu ZHAO 1,2, Lei DUAN 1, Yu LEI 1,2, Jia XING 1, Chris P NIELSEN 2, Jiming HAO 1 1. Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing , China 2. School of Engineering and Applied Science, Harvard University, 29 Oxford St., Cambridge, MA 02138, USA National Atmospheric Deposition Program 2010 Annual Meeting and Scientific Symposium

2 Chinese soil acidification and emission trends Acidification in China is generally attributed to intensive coal combustion and high emissions of acid precursors. Parts of southern and southwestern China have the highest observed acidity of precipitation in the world, with continuously worsening conditions in recent years Tg China: MEP official report US:USEPA National Emissions Inventory EU: EMEP Emission Data China: Lu Z, et al.,atmos.chem.phys.(2010) Tg China: Zhang Q,et al.,j.geo.res.(2007) US: USEPA National Emissions Inventory EU:ENEP Emission Data China: MEP official report Year 0.0 Year Historical trends of SO 2 (left) and NOx (right) emissions

3 Chinese emission control policies National policy: energy saving and emission reduction - Shutting down small/inefficient units: 70GW during FGD (flue gas desulfurization) application after 2005; SCR (selective catalyst reduction) application after 2010; - Application of stringent emission regulations for on-road vehicles and cement production LEFT SCALE-Installed coal-fired capacity(gw) RIGHT SCALE-Application rate of flue gas desulfurization RIGHT SCALE-Coal consumption share by units larger than 600 MW % 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0%

4 Base cation: against acidification Base cations (BC: Ca 2+, Mg 2+, K +, Na + ) - Sources: PM emissions of industrial process e.g., cement and lime production - Future trends: controlled due to huge effects on human health Multi-pollutant control strategy - Research on acidification effect of S, N and PM control simultaneously Tg China SO2: MEP official report China NOx: Zhang, Q et al.,j.geo.res.(2007) China PM: Lei Y et al.,atmos.chem.phys.discuss.(2010) ? Year

5 Evaluating the acidification effects Emission inventory GDP Population Position of large sources Emission factors Activity level Economic development; energy consumption and emission control policies Policy implication Soil acidification estimate Exceedance of critical load Spatial allocation Compare Gridded emissions S, N, and base cation depositions Mapping Critical load (CL) Atmospheric simulation Soil Sensitivity to acid depositions Soil parameters Vegetation parameters

6 MOBILE sources AREA sources POINT sources Bottom up Methodology of emission inventory Power plants Cement Iron and steel Industrial boilers Other processes Residential Agriculture (NH 3 ) Transportation Pulverized; Grate; CFB; Oil and gas plants Precalciner; Shaft; Other rotary kilns Coke; Sintering; Pig iron; Steel making; casting Grate; CFB; Oil and gas plants Lime; Smelting; Chemical engineering; etc Fossil burning; Biomass burning Livestock; Fertilizer use On road vehicles; Non-road sources E i, j, T Ei j i, species E i, j Ei, j, k k E i, j. k Ei, j, k, m m E AL EF R 1 ) i, j, k, m j, k, m, n i, j, k, m i, j, k, m, n ( i, n n Emission Activity level j, regions k, sectors Emission factor Penetration rate m, fuel types; n, emission control types Projections in 2020: - SO 2 /NO X : Current and upcoming policies - NH 3 : No specific control; - PM (and there by base cation): Removal efficiency Two scenarios: BASE and CONTROL

7 Changes of EF and AL for

8 Base 2020 Control SO2, NOx and NH 3 emissions (kt) 1 Base cation emissions (kt) 1 Emission estimate Power plants Transport Industry Residential +23% % +24% +32% % SO2 NOx NH3 Base cations

9 Site 1 Site 2 Site 3 Site 4 Site 5 Site 6 Site 7 Site 8 Site 9 Site 10 Site 11 Site 12 Site 13 Site 1 Site 2 Site 3 Site 4 Site 5 Site 6 Site 7 Site 8 Site 9 Site 10 Site 11 Site 12 Site 13 Site 1 Site 2 Site 3 Site 4 Site 5 Site 6 Site 7 Site 8 Site 9 Site 10 Site 11 keq/ha keq/ha keq/ha Modelling: Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) (V4.4) Multi-layer Eulerian model base cations Monitored data: Atmospheric simulation IMPACTS: Larssen T, et al., Environ. Sci. Technol. (2006) EANET: Monitored Simulated Monitored Simulated Monitored Simulated Wet S depositions Wet N depositions Wet BC depositions

10 Simulated depositions of S and N 2005 S 2020 S 2005 N 2020 N

11 Simulated depositions of base cations Base 2020 Control

12 The extended critical load function The deposition of pollutants below which harmful ecological effects do not occur. Steady-Status Mass Balance (SSMB) CL max ( S) BC D BCW BCU ANC L, crit CL min ( N) N I N U ; CL max ( N) N CL ( S) limit BCW BCU ANC L, crit S D BCD CL( S) CL( S) BCD CL( S) limit limit I N (1 f U DE CLmax ( S) 1 f ) ( N D DE CL min ( N)) ( N ( N D D CL CL min min ( N)) ( N)) BCD: base cation deposition BCW: weathering rate of BC BCU: vegetation uptake of BC ANCL,crit: critical leaching of alkalinity NI: N immobilization rate NU: vegetation uptake of N fde: denitrification rate S-N S-N-BC Zhao Y, et al., Environ. Sci. Technol. (2007)

13 Chinese critical load maps (36 36 km) CL max (S) CL (N): minimum of CL max (N) and CL nut (N)

14 Exceedance of critical load Base 2020 Control

15 Area percentages of the domain 100% Cumulate distribution of exceedance 95% 90% Higher curves indicate relatively lower acidification risks at the national level. 85% 80% 75% base scenario 2020 control scenario 2020 with critical natural depostion 70% Exceedance of critical load (keq/ha/yr) Unwanted side effects of the control of primary PM and thus BCs, may wholly counteract the benefits to regional acidification of reduced emissions of acid precursors.

16 Conclusion remarks China s current program of emission controls is unlikely to achieve its longstanding goal of reduced acidification. In accord with the simulation, long-term monitoring found correlation of an increasing trend of precipitation acidity with a decrease in concentrations of airborne PM at many sites across China, and that correlation cannot be explained by changes in natural sources. Ongoing PM control efforts must be continued because of the benefits of reduced aerosol pollution and avoided associated damages to public health. Policy-makers may have little choice but to pursue even more stringent SO 2 and NOx controls in the future.

17 For More Information Zhao Y, et al., Environ. Sci. Technol. (2007) Zhao Y, et al., Environ. Sci. Technol. (2009) Zhao Y, et al., Environ. Sci. Technol. Submitted in Contacts

18 Formation and harms of acidification NH 3 DEPOSITION H +, NH 4+, SO 4 2-, NO 3 - exchange Ca, Mg, K, Na, Al SOIL Nutrient and base cation loss Leaching (water acidification) Increasing active toxic Al 3+

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