Energy Efficiency Potential. Prof. Don Cleland Massey University

Transcription

1 Energy Efficiency Potential Prof. Don Cleland Massey University

2 Primary Energy 34% renewable 66% fossil fuels Consumer Energy 67% of primary End-Use Energy 4% of consumer Electricity (primary basis) 6o% renewable 2% gas 15% coal 75% renewable (consumer basis) Source: Energy Data File 26, Ministry of Economic Development

3 Source: Energy Data File 26, Ministry of Economic Development 24 Consumer Energy (excluding transport) Residential 22% Agriculture 7% Residential 35% 24 Electricity Agriculture 4% Industrial 41% Commercial 16% Industrial 55% Commercial 2%

4 CAE Study (2) - Residential Source: The Potential in NZ for Moving to a Sustainable Energy Future; CAE, 2

5 Industrial & Commercial Source: The Potential in NZ for Moving to a Sustainable Energy Future; CAE, 2

6 Industrial & Commercial (detail) Sector Consumer energy (%) BAU Activity BAU specific energy (MJ/GDP) BAU total energy Technical potential Realisable potential Commercial 9 >5% 2-3% Agriculture 5 1-2% 2-3% Food % 5-15% Wood & P&P % 1-2% Manufacturing 5 1-2% 5-1% Basic Metals % 1% Combined 47 >3% 1-2%

7 Residential & Commercial space heating & cooling building code obsolete insulation/glazing passive solar design direct gas (2:1)/heat pumps (>3:1) lighting CFLs/LED water heating insulation direct gas/solar/heat pumps/wetbacks appliances standby MEPS

8 Lighting Gas or Coal Generation Transmission Distribution Wiring Customer Lamp Fitting Useful Light Incandescent via Huntly Primary Energy % Loss 65% 5% 5% 1% 98% 5% Gas or Coal Generation Transmission Distribution Wiring Customer Lamp Fitting Useful Light CFL via Huntly Primary Energy % Loss 65% 5% 5% 1% 9% 5%

9 Water Heating Gas Burner Hot Water Gas CCGT Hot Water Primary Energy Primary Energy Direct Gas Electric Immersion via CCGT % Loss 2% % Loss 5% Gas CCGT Electricity Hot Water Solar or Heat Pump via CCGT Primary Energy % Loss 5% -2% Free Energy from Ambient

10 EU Refrigerator Energy Labels Market share (%) 12% st 3 months (GEA) A+ A B C D E F G Share of models/sales 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % A B C D E F G 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 1% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% Energy efficiency index (%) 1999 (CECED) 1997 (CECED) 1994 Sales-weighted (ADEME) (GEA) 17% 18% 19% 2% 21% 22% 23% 24% Source: Waide, 26

11 LLCC Domestic Refrigerators Life cycle cost (Tunisian Dinars) Electricity consumption (kwh/year) Source: Waide, 26

12 MEPS for Air-Conditioners (Japan) (C O P :A verage H eating and C ooling) N ew S tandard/ W indow (one box) Type New Standard/ Separate Type N ew S tandard/ O thers N ew S tandard/ D uct Type N ew S tandard/ M ultitype Present S tandard/ W indow (one box)type Present S tandard/ S eparate Type Cooling C apacity (kw )

13 Comfort, Temperature and Clothing (Florida Households) 4. Heating 3.5 Cooling Outdoor Temperature (oc) Source: Waide, 26

14 Residential Applicances (IEA) 45 Electricity consumption (TWh/year) Base case Current policies LLCC from 25 Source: Waide, 26

15 Commercial Buildings Table 2. Comparison of US office energy-use intensity and energy-cost intensity. Site/delivered energy intensity (kwh/m 2 -year) Energy-cost intensity ($/m 2 ) Energy Star offices 194 $ CBECS average 319 $ CBECS top 25% 152 $ 1.98 CBECS bottom 25% 684 $ CBECS = Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey;

16 Fonterra Energy Reduction Project started in 22 1% reduction in 25/6 ($15M) further 5% reduction by 27/8 how best practice refrigeration chilled water compressed air steam systems process integration projects (high ROI) partial implementation to date has not fully addressed evaporation & drying

17 Industrial Process Integration 12 1 Heating = 25 kw Temperature ( o C) Hot Composite Cold Composite 2 Cooling = 26 kw Heat Flow (kw) 12 1 Heating = 3 kw Temperature ( o C) Heat Recovery = 22 kw Pinch 2 Cooling = 4 kw Heat Flow (kw)

18 BAU Improvement (OECD) Hypothetical energy use without savings 49% 1 Additional energy use without intensity declines = E nergy savings exajoules Actual energy use Source: Waide, 26

19 Califorian Experience 18, kwh/person/year 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, California Texas United States 4, 2, year Source: 4, 35, 3, 25, Utility Programs Building Standards Appliance Standards GWH 2, 15, 1, 5, Year Source: Waide, 26

20 GWh Can Market Signals Work? 3,5 Orion Energy & Peak Demand Energy Demand MW 8 3, 7 2, , 4 1,5 3 1, Years Source: Sutton, 26

21 Australian Projections Elec (w ate r savings) 26 Gas (wa ter sa vings) 2 25 G a s sp a ce hea ter s 24 Gas water heaters 23 Pool equipment P AC h e a t m o de 6 21 A C he a t m od e 6 Mt C O2 -e re duction belo C CAC 7 19 C hil le rs 7 18 W at e r d isp e nse rs 7 17 TV On m ode 6 16 G re en lig hts 15 S tan d by 6 14 M isc W H 5 13 L a rg e W H 5 12 M otors 4 11 M otors 1 1 S ma ll W H 5 9 Com R ef + I ce 4 8 Tra ns Flu oros 5 6 Ballast 3 5 PAC 7 4 PAC 1 3 AC 6 Enha n ce RF 5 1 All App s to 9 9 Prev io us P roj ectio n Source: Holt, 25

22 Australian Projections $.35 $.3 $.25 $.2 $.15 $.1 $.5 $. Energy Efficiency Landfill Gas Scrubbed Coal New IGCC Geothermal Advanced CC Conventional CC Advanced Nuclear Wind Biomass IGCC with Sequestration Hydro Advanced CC with Seq Conventional CT DG Base DG Peak Advanced CT Fuel Cells PV Solar Thermal Total Capital & Operating Costs in US23$/kWh Source: Holt, 25

23 Barriers and Issues capital availability & ROI expectations knowledge gaps by decision-makers paucity of information on options low cost of energy market distortions (many costs remain externalities) increased utility rather than reduced energy rate of stock turnover social equity owner/occupier disconnect leads to increase in electricity

24 Effect of EE on Electricity Electricity (MWh/$1 GDP) Percentage Electricity (%) Electricity (MWh/capita) Percentage Electricity (%) Total Energy (toe/$1 GDP) Total Energy (toe/capita)

25 Conclusions focus must be reduction in non-renewable primary energy projections conservative if we become as aggressive about energy efficiency as we are about supply >3% improvement over 1 years achievable new technologies can stretch this further

26 References 1. CAE (2) The Potential in New Zealand for Moving to a Sustainable Energy Future, report to EECA, December 2, Centre for Advanced Engineering, Christchurch. 2. Cleland, D.J. (1995) Energy efficient technologies for the future. In Improving Plant Energy Efficiency to Reduce Energy Costs and CO2 Emissions, MIRINZ Workshop, Hamilton, November 1995, p Cleland, D.J. (25) Sustainable energy use and management, In People and energy: how do we use it?, Proceedings Royal Society of New Zealand Conference, Christchurch, 18 November 24, The Royal Society of New Zealand, Miscellaneous Series 66, p Holt S. (25) Australia: A case study, Australian Greenhouse Gas Office, presented at the UNDP Side Event on Energy Efficiency Standards and Labelling, held during COP- 11, UNFCCC, Montreal, Canada, December 1st MED 23: New Zealand Energy Outlook to 225, Ministry of Economic Development, NZ Government, Wellington. 6. MED 26: Energy Data File January 26, Ministry of Economic Development, NZ Government, Wellington. 7. Sutton, R. (26) presentation to EMANZ, 2 May Waide, P. (26) Climate, cold and comfort: international energy-efficiency policy and how its set to change business practice, Refrigeration Science and Technology Series (Proceedings IIR-IRHACE 26 Conference, Auckland, NZ, February, 26; CD-Rom).