Renewables Policy: A California Perspective

Transcription

1 Renewables Policy: A California Perspective Todd Strauss 32nd IAEE International Conference 22 June

2 Agenda California s energy policies Evolution of California s Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) RPS implementation RPS challenges 1

3 California s Energy Policies Varied Objectives Small environmental footprint Manage customer cost Develop competitive markets Promote California industries and jobs Reduce reliance on fossil fuels Increased energy security and independence 2

4 California s Energy Policies California has put ambitious policies and programs into place Long-standing state policies that encourage the use of energy efficiency and renewable resources, and discourage coal and new nuclear Energy Action Plan Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) enacted in 2002 GHG reduction law (AB32) enacted in

5 California s Energy Policies California s Energy Action Plan has a loading order of preferred resources 1. Customer Energy Efficiency (CEE) 2. Demand Response (DR) 3. Renewables (RPS) 4. Distributed Generation (DG) 5. Clean fossil-fuel plants 4

6 Evolution of California s RPS Targets and deadlines change Original RPS law in 2002 By 2017, 20% of total annual energy to be met by renewables Increase renewables by 1% per year Only eligible renewables count 2006 law accelerates RPS target to 20% by Governor s Executive Order raises RPS target to 33% by Air Resources Board Scoping Plan to implement AB32 includes RPS target of 33% by legislation proposes to raise RPS target to 33% by

7 Evolution of California s RPS Many U.S. states have renewable goals State RPS State Goal Source: Database of State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency, dsireusa.org February

8 Evolution of California s RPS Details differ widely among the states *WA: 15% by 2020 OR: 25% by 2025 (large utilities) 5% - 10% by 2025 (smaller utilities) CA: 20% by % by 2020 proposed *NV: 25% by 2025 MT: 15% by 2015 *UT: 20% by 2025 CO: 20% by 2020 (IOUs) *10% by 2020 (co-ops & large munis) AZ: 15% by 2025 NM: 20% by 2020 (IOUs) 10% by 2020 (co-ops) MN: 25% by 2025 (Xcel: 30% by 2020) ND: 10% by 2015 SD: 10% by 2015 IA: 105 MW WI: requirement varies by utility; 10% by 2015 goal IL: 25% by 2025 VT: (1) RE meets any increase in retail sales by 2012; (2) 20% RE & CHP by 2017 *MI: 10% + 1,100 MW by 2015 OH: 25%** by 2025 MO: 15% by 2021 NC: 12.5% by 2021 (IOUs) 10% by 2018 (co-ops & munis) ME: 30% by 2000 New RE: 10% by 2017 NH: 23.8% by 2025 MA: 15% by % annual increase (Class I Renewables) RI: 16% by 2020 CT: 23% by 2020 NY: 24% by 2013 NJ: 22.5% by 2021 PA: 18%** by 2020 MD: 20% by 2022 *DE: 20% by 2019 DC: 20% by 2020 *VA: 15% by 2025 HI: 20% by 2020 TX: 5,880 MW by 2015 Solar hot water eligible Minimum solar or customer-sited RE requirement * Increased credit for solar or customer-sited RE ** Includes separate tier of non-renewable alternative energy resources State RPS State Goal Source: Database of State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency, dsireusa.org 7

9 Evolution of California s RPS Which resources are included? Eligible for California s RPS Wind Solar (concentrating thermal and photovoltaic) Small hydro (less than 30 MW and generally run-of-river) Geothermal Biomass, biogas (landfill gas, digester), biodiesel Ocean wave, ocean thermal, tidal current Fuel cell using renewable fuel Municipal solid waste conversion using a non-combustion thermal process Ineligible for California s RPS Large hydro Fossil-fueled cogeneration Gasified coal Municipal waste combustion 8

10 Evolution of California s RPS More details Energy must be delivered to California Annual targets; banking; earmarking Enforced differently for investor-owned utilities and public utilities 9

11 Evolution of California s RPS Renewable programs on the customer s side of the meter do not count toward RPS California Solar Initiative PG&E has connected 29,000 customers; 290 MW Net Energy Metering Self-Generation Incentive Program (SGIP) 1 MW or less New Solar Homes Partnerships 10

12 RPS Implementation PG&E Strategy Aggressively contract for renewables Work cooperatively with others to create solutions to project barriers Ownership of renewable generation Explore new, long-term supply opportunities British Columbia renewables, WaveConnect, Cleantech start-up support 11

13 RPS Implementation Aggressively contract Since 2002, PG&E has signed 53 contracts for RPS energy, totaling 5203 MW # MWs Geothermal Wind Bioenergy Solar PV Solar Thermal Solar/Biomass Small Hydro 4 53 Total *Does not include small renewable generator PPAs **Chart/map includes terminated/expired PPAs only if they contributed to RPS target 12

14 RPS Implementation Solar Technologies Under Contract Parabolic Trough Compact Linear Fresnel Reflector Power Tower Trough/Biomass Hybrid Fixed Thin Film (a-si) Concentrating PV Tracking Crystalline Silicon 13

15 RPS Implementation Existing contracts might be enough IOU Actual and Forecasted RPS Generation 90,000 Target: 33% of Expected IOU Retail Sales 80,000 70,000 GWh 60,000 50,000 40,000 Target: 20% of Expected IOU Retail Sales 30,000 20,000 10, Pre-2002 Contracts 2002 Contracts 2003 Contracts 2004 Contracts 2005 Contracts 2006 Contracts 2007 Contracts 2008 Contracts Pending Approval Short-listed Bids Expired Contracts RPS Target Graph is for all 3 California investor-owned utilities, not just PG&E Source: CPUC RPS Quarterly Report, January

16 RPS Challenges but new renewable projects face multiple barriers to getting on-line Source: CPUC Website Updated January Barriers associated with approximately 50 CPUC approved, but not yet operational contracts 15

17 RPS Challenges Transmission Accessing remote renewable resources frequently requires significant transmission investments Transmission development for renewables takes a long time and involves navigating overlapping state and federal policies and processes Integrating intermittent renewables is a challenge for grid planning and operations 16

18 RPS Challenges Financial market turmoil has had a severe and widespread impact on renewable energy projects Reliance on shrinking tax equity market Renewable energy projects require more capital than conventional gas-fired electric generation (2 to 5 times as much) and tend to have lower debt/equity ratios, resulting in significant reliance on tax equity Markets for project debt vanished 17

19 RPS Challenges Siting and permitting Continues to be a challenge in California 18

20 RPS Challenges Technology commercialization Technology may not transition from lab to largescale deployment Securing funding is difficult for technologies that have not been demonstrated commercially Challenging to assess environmental impacts of technologies that have not yet been deployed at commercial scale Longevity of new technologies is not yet proven in the field 19

21 RPS: What s Next? Much is currently in flux New state legislation may change rules Regional transmission planning efforts U.S. Department of Energy stimulus funding Attaining target RPS quantities at reasonable cost continues to be challenging 20