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1 ( ) , 2 1 Scott Rozelle 3 1, 2 :,,,,, ;, ;,, : ; ; ; 20 80,,,, (Huang and Bouis, 1996;, 2000), , ,, , ;, (, 2006),20 90,,, (, ), ; 1,, , (, 2000),90,, ; 13 (, 2006) 90,, (, 2006), 3 (: KSCX2 - YW - N - 039), Center for Agricultural and Rural Development of the Iowa State UniversityIIED s RegoverningMarket,, 62

2 :,,,,20 90,? 90 5?, 90??,?,() (Huang and Bouis, 1996),(Huang and Rozelle, 1998; Frank et al., 2006) 90, ()( ) 90,,,,, (, 2005;, 2005;, 2004), ,(, 2006) (),,,, (, ),,,,,,,((),, ),, , 3,,(), ,( 36 ), ( 1 10, 10), 4,200,, , 25,:,, (),7: 3 ( 7) (3 ),10,,, : (1) 63

3 ( ) , ; ( 2) 12,105() ;50,7: 3, 10 20, : (1) ( ) ; (2) ; (3) ,, ( ), ;,,,, () 200, ,9% ; 2004, 25, 4 39% ( 1) () () () () () () ( ) ( % ) (/) (/) ( ) t ( ) t ( ) ( % ) () () ( % ) (/) :, 3%, 1990 t : 25,,25,, % % ( 1 ), ( 28% ) ; , 1. 73( 46% ), 20 90, ,1990 4, , 28%, 64

4 : 2000, , % ( 2), , 1, % (101 /145)5 5, 20 6, 4%, ( 2),,, , , (6. 7)20 90 (7. 3) , 75( 75% ) % % % () () (/) () , , 16%,,1990,, ,39% 45% ( 3),, ();, 1988 ( ) % % % % () () () , 1990, 94,100 67%,100299, 89% (11% ) 20 90,, 65

5 ( ) % 27%, 63%, (3 ), % ( 3) () ( 2 3), 1990, (20 90, 3) ( , 2) 4,, ,,30 (A )(B ), A B, ( 4) 425 () (/) , 30,,, 5. 4 ( 5 1),, 30 50( 52) ( ) t ( ) t () () (/) ( % ) ( % ) () ( ) : t (), ( ) ( 5 7) ;, (0. 8 )( 1. 5 )( 5 1) (), ( 5 38) 66,

6 :,,,, (),,,,, : y ijt = X ijt +U ijt Y ijt = f ( P j( t - 3), R jt, Y ij2000, H ijt ) (1) ij ; t, Y2, (, 1 =, 0 =), ( x), P () ; R, ( ) ; Y,, Y(2000) (),,; H,() (/) g ( % ), ( P)2,3 ( t - 3) ( ), 3 30 ( ) 3, 30,, ,,,30,,, j i:w ij = S j M j / a j ;:W ij = S j (1 - M j ) / b j, S j j 25,M j j, a j b j, 7: 3, a j b j 73,, Probit;, ( ),Tobit, Tobit (W eight Tobit) W eight Tobit,(, ) : y = x+ u x+ u > 0 = 0 x+ u0un (0, 2 ) (2) Ey = XF ( z) +f( z), z = x/, f( z)z, F ( z)z Ey 3 = E ( y/y > 0) = x+f( z) /F ( z), xy : d1 = 5Ey 3 /5x =[ 1 - zf ( z) /F ( z) - ( f 67

7 ( ) ( z) /F ( z) ) 2 ]; xy: d2 = 5Ey/9x t = F ( z),, W eight Tobit d1d2, () 6,, 62 ( Probit 2) 4( Tobit 2), , 7 (:613) 1., 6,,30,(1%) 2., ,3 /4, ,19, ,(0. 18)74% ( 7),, %, 1. 9%, 123% ;,,,16% ( 7) 3., 1, 0. 7% ( 6) ; , 0. 9%, (1. 55% ),58%( 7), 4. ProbitTobit, ( 6), 6 ( Probit) (1) (2) ( Tobit) ( ) (6. 08) (5. 66) 333 (1) (2) ( ) (4. 05) (4. 12) 333 ( ) (1. 51) (1. 95) (1. 30) (1. 80) 3 () (5. 37) (5. 05) (5. 69) (5. 57) 333 () (0. 31) (0. 22) (0. 42) (0. 30) (1. 32) (1. 58) (1. 50) (1. 71) (2. 97) (3. 13) (3. 09) (3. 31) 333 (/) (0. 61) (0. 12) (0. 46) (0. 02) (/) (0. 12) (0. 86) (0. 18) (0. 85) (0. 11) (1. 45) : , % 5%1% 68

8 : 5., ( 6),, ( 7), ( % ) : ( % ) : ( % ) ( ) ( ) / ( ) na na - 74 na na 73 na na - 18 na na na : 1 6 2( Probit 2),4 76 4( Tobit 2), d1 = 5Ey 3 / 5x =[ 1 - zf ( z) / F ( z) - ( f ( z) / F ( z) ) 2 ] d2 = 5Ey /9x t = F ( z)= () /, 1,,,, ;;,,,,,, 1.,.., 2000 (7) 2.,.., 2005 (3) 3..., 2004 (11) 4.,,.., 2005 (7) 5..., Huang, J. and H. Bouis. Structural Changes in Demand for Food in A sia, IFPR I s Food, Agriculture, and the Environment 2020 Paper Se2 ries 11, International Food Policy Research Institute, W ashington D. C, Huang, J. and S. Rozelle. Market development and food demand in rural China. China Econom ic Review 9 (1) : 1998, Frank H. Fuller, Jikun Huang, Hengyun Ma, Scott Rozelle, 2006, Got m ilk? The rap id rise of China s dairy sector and its future prospects Food Policy, A rticle In Press 18 April Available On L ine at www. elsevier. com / locate / foodpol 9. Frank H. Fuller, John C. Beghin, D inghuan Hu, and Scott Rozelle, 2004, China s Dairy Market: Consumer Demand Survey and Supply Characteristics Staff Report 04 - sr 99 August 2004 ( : 1.,, ,, ,, 95616) : 69

9 Vol. 28, Serial No. 336 of Aquatic p roducts. The studies show that the endowment conditions of aquatic resources are relatively good, but it tends to slow down in competitiveness; Export trade has the some issues such as p roducts relatively simp le, insufficient in deep p rocessing of the p roducts, the excessive concentration of exports regional and so on, we must take measures to op tim ize the trade structure of aquatic p roducts. Reform of the Rura l Coopera tive F inanc ia l Stock and D evelopm en t of the Stock Increm en ta l: an Ana lytica l Fram ework on the Increm en ta l Progressive D evelopm en t CHEN Chibo and PEN G Keqiang (27) This paper review s and studies the p rocess of the reform and development of rural cooperative fi2 nance. Authors study and discuss the system causes of the dual dilemmas in which we are p laced when we reform the form al rural cooperative finance and the informal develop. Then authors p ropose the ana2 lytical framework about rural cooperative financial incremental p rogressive development theory. Ana lysis of Econom ic Fundam en ta ls on the D evelopm en t of Ch ina s Rura l F inance L I M ingxian and L I X uew en (34) According to the study on the relationship between financial development and econom ic grow th, domestic and foreign scholars have all focused on the financial development on the supporting and facil2 itating role of econom ic growth, but neglect the decisive role of econom ic conditions on the level of fi2 nancial development. This paper uses four indicators which are used by the development of rural econ2 omy levels, rural industrial structure, rural degree of econom ic boom and the degree of m arket2oriented rural economy to measure the econom ic development of rural areas, thus it uses rural financial scale, rural financial structure and rural financial function to measure the situation of China s rural financial developm ent, emp irical analyzes the decisive role of the development of the rural economy on the de2 velopm ent of the rural financial development, suggests som e relevant recommendations on enhancing e2 conom ic fundamentals on the developm ent of China s rural finance. Im pact Research on Public Investm en t in Agr iculture Productiv ity and the Non2agr icultura l Payrolls YAN G X iangyang and ZHAO L ei (41) The Externa l Effects of the Rura lw eak F inanc ia lm arkets and the System Cho ice of M arket O pera tion D ENG J ing (50) Sta tus, Problem s and Solution s on the D evelopm en t of Ch ina sm a ize Industr ia l Cha in A Ca se Study in J ilin Prov ince ZHAN G Yuejie (55) W ith the extension of the m aize industrial chain, maize econom ic has developed more rap idly, so maize industry has becom e an important p illar industries in the development of the agriculture econom2 ic. Taken J ilin Province as an examp le, this paper app lies the theories of industrial chain m anagement and industry econom ic, and divides the maize industrial chain into p roduction chain, p rocessing chain, circulation chain and demand chain, then analyzes them. It also discusses the p roblem s that m aize in2 dustrial chain is divorced from J ilin Province, and the core of the p rocessing chain is not strong, and also it has low efficiency of the distribution chain. On that basis, this paper p resents to make the de2 velopm ent strategy of the maize industrialization. The R ise of Da iry Processing F irm s and Farm ers Partic ipa tion in Da iry Farm ing WU Yunhua, HUANG J ikun, Scott Rozelle, YAN G Zhijian (62) W ith rap id income growth and rising of modern retail market, the demand for and p roduction of dairy p roducts in China has increased significantly. The overall goal of this paper is to analyze the ma2 jor determ inants of household dairy p roduction w ith specific focus on the rising of dairy p rocessing firm s. B ased on household surveys conducted in the Greater B eijing area, the econom etric analyses show that the expansion of local dairy p rocessing firm s is p rimary factor affecting farmersparticipating in dairy p roduction. O ther important factors include local transportation and household s off2farm em2 p loyment. The results also show that poor farmers are not excluded from China s rap id expansion of the dairy market. 111

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