Farmers attitudes toward and evaluation and use of insurance for income protection on Montana wheat farms by Gordon E Rodewald

Transcription

1 Farmers attitudes toward and evaluation and use of insurance for income protection on Montana wheat farms by Gordon E Rodewald A THESIS Submitted to the Graduate Faculty in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Agricultural Economics Montana State University Copyright by Gordon E Rodewald (1960) Abstract: This research problem was designed to examine and evaluate farmers' attitudes toward crop insurance and to test the adequacy of crop insurance and to test the adequacy of crop insurance as a means of alleviating the adverse effects of yield variability encountered in dryland grain farming. Crop insurance was defined as any insurance available for crop protection; in Montana this includes all-risk insurance and crop-hail insurance. The hypotheses were: 1) that the use of crop insurance is more important in the short-run than in the long-run and; 2) that the farmer's use of crop insurance is influenced by his attitude toward and evaluation of crop insurance in relation to other methods of income protection. The tests were conducted with emphasis given to the beginning years for the farmer. To test this hypothesis and the adequacy of crop insurance the farmers attitude toward planning his farming operation, his attitude toward crop insurance, his evaluation of hazards faced, and his evaluation of alternative methods of protecting his farm income were determined. These tests were conducted through the use of; 1) the Guttman scalogram technique for measuring attitudes, and 2) the paired comparisons technique for determining rank order and finding the scale separation between hazards and alternative methods of income protection. The results of this analysis were then compared to the results of budget analysis to determine the adequacy of crop insurance. This was done for two areas; the Triangle winter wheat and the Northeast spring wheat. Four yield series compiled from state lease data were used. Two series from each area were used which were 17 to 20 years in length and in each case the average yield of the series approximated that of its respective area. To determine the effectiveness of crop insurance it was necessary to consider, in addition to cash expenses, the cost of maintaining the farm household. With these expenses it was possible to determine the effect on farm income of yield variability both in the short and long-run, This was done for the farm using and not using insurance. It was found in the study that farmers have a negative attitude toward the use of crop insurance. This was coupled with a low placing of crop insurance in relation to alternative methods of reducing the effects of low yields. In addition the budget analysis revealed that this appraisal by farmers may be accurate with respect to policies presently available.

2 FAEMBIiS ATTITUDES TOWARD AMD EVALUATION AMD USE OF.INSURANCE FOR INCOME PROTECTION ON 'MONTANA WHEAT' FARMS by Gordon E. Rodewa id, J r. A THESIS S u b m itte d to th e G ra d u a te F a c u lty i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l l m e n t o f th e r e q u ire m e n ts f o r th e d e g re e o f M a ste r o f S c ie n c e i n A g r i c u l t u r a l E conom ics a t M ontana S t a t e C o lle g e A pproved: lead, MaYor D e p a rtm en t C hairm an, E xam ining C om m ittee D ean, G r a d u a te /D iv is io n Bozeman, M ontana May I960 ]

3 hls-?*,. 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS age LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS... LIST OF TABLES... ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... ABSTRACT i l l i v v i v i i CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION... I THE PROBLEM SITUATION... I A g r ic u ltu r e on th e G re a t P l a i n s... I R is k and U n c e r ta in ty D e f i n e d... 3 Use o f I n s u ra n c e i n A g r i c u l t u r e... 4 In s u r a n c e P o l i c i e s P r e s e n t l y A v a ila b le... 6 The R e s e a rc h P roblem... 8 OBJECTIVES HYPOTHESIS... 9 PLAN OF FOLLOWING CHAPTERS... 9 CHAPTER I I. METHODOLOGY USID IN STUDY The S tu d y A r e a P ro c e d u re o f A n a ly s is ATTITUDE SCALES D e te rm in in g A t t i t u d e s V a l i d i t y o f S c a le S c o re s and J u s t i f i c a t i o n o f U se. 18 CONTINGENCY TABLES PAIRED COMPARISONS E s t a b l i s h i n g a Rank O rd er and T e s tin g th e Rank f o r A g reem ent S c a le V alu e s f o r th e Rank O rd e r J u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r U se BUDGET ANALYSIS B udget A ssum ptions CHAPTER I I I. FARMERS ATTITUDES TOWARD INSURANCE AND PLANNING P la n n in g A t t itu d e S ta te m e n ts In s u r a n c e A t t itu d e S ta te m e n ts F arm er A t t i t u d e s Toward P la n n in g T e s tin g P la n n in g A t t i t u d e s f o r A s s o c ia tio n F a r m e r 's A t t itu d e s Toward Crop In s u ra n c e CHAPTER IV. FARMER'S EVALUATION OF CROP INSURANCE AND HAZARDS F A C E D F a r m e r 's E v a lu a tio n o f Crop I n s u r a n c e F a r m e r 's E v a lu a tio n o f Types o f H azard s F a c e d i

4 TABLE- QF CONTENTS (c o n tin u e d ) CHAPTER V. ADEQUACY OF CROP INSURANCE Use o f Y ie ld S e r ie s on A ll R is k In s u r a n c e Use o f H a il I n s u ra n c e w ith th e Y ie ld S e r i e s CHAPTER V I. IMPLICATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH I m p l i c a t i o n s... ' 64 F u tu re R e s e a r c h CHAPTER V II. SUMMARY S u m m a ry APPEND IC IE S... ' APPENDIX A APPENDIX B APPENDIX C BIBLIOGRAPHY Zags ii

5 L IS T OF ILLUSTRATIONS FLgugg. PagR 1 Map Of C o u n tie s I n S tu d y A re a S c a le S e p a r a tio n s F o r A l t e r n a t i v e s By G roups S c a le S e p a r a tio n s F o r H azard s By G roups S c a le ' S e p a r a tio n s F o r H azard s By G ro u p s A ccum ulated G ross S a v in g s W ith No I n s u ra n c e And W ith A l l - R is k In s u r a n c e F o r Thg F o u r S p rin g W heat Farm s Y ie ld S e r ie s Numbgr A ccum ulated G ross S a y in g s W ith No I n s u ra n c e And W ith A l l - R is k In s u r a n c e F o r The F o u r W in te r W heat Farm s Y ie ld S e r ie s Number A ccum ulated G ross S a v in g s W ith No I n s u ra n c e And W ith A l l - R is k In s u r a n c e F o r The F o u r S p rin g Whgat Farm s Y ie ld S e r ie s Number A ccum ulated G ro ss S a v in g s W ith No I n s u ra n c e And W ith A l l - R is k I n s u r a n c e F o r Thg F o u r W in te r W heat Farm s Y ie ld S e r ie s Number iii

6 L IS T OF TABLES Number Paee I RESPONSE PATTERN B I QUESTION AND RESPONDENT I I GUTTMAN SCALE ANALYSIS FOR PLANNING ATTITUDES I I I OBSERVED CONTINGENCY TABLE FOR SCALE SCORE AND FARM SIZE. 21 IV EXPECTED VALUE FOR SCALE SCORE AND FARM S I Z E V F MATRIX SHOWING JUDGMENTS OF 251 FARMERS ON ALTERNATIVE METHODS OF PROTECTION USED BY FARMERS VI P MATRIX CORRESPONDING TO F MATRIX V II Z MATRIX CORRESPONDING TO P MATRIX V I I I IX X THEORETICAL NORMAL DEVIATES Z y CORRESPONDING TO SCALE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ITEMS IN THE Z M A TR IX THEORETICAL PROPORTIONS FOR ALTERNATIVES CORRESPONDING TO THE P MATRIX VALUES OF 9 and 9 1-, OBSERVED AND EXPECTED PROPORTIONS CONVERTED INTO ANGLES IN TERMS OF DEGREES X I SCALOGRAM ANALYSIS OF PLANNING ATTITUDES FOR ALL FARMERS. 38 X I I X I I I SCALOGRAM ANALYSIS OF PLANNING ATTITUDES FOR NON-INSURANCE USERS SCALOGRAM ANALYSIS OF PLANNING ATTITUDES FOR INSURANCE U S E R S XIV SCALOGRAM ANALYSIS OF INSURANCE ATTITUDES FOR ALL FARMERS. 41 XV XVI SCALOGRAM ANALYSIS OF INSURANCE ATTITUDES FOR INSURANCE USERS SCALOGRAM ANALYSIS OF INSURANCE ATTITUDES FOR NON- INSURANCE USERS, I v

7 L IS T OF TABLES ( c o n tin u e d ) Number XV II Page ' RANK ORDER AND STATISTICAL EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVE METHODS OF PROTECTION X V III RANK ORDER AND STATISTICAL EVALUATION FOR HAZARDS FACED BY FARMERS....' 46 XIX XX BUDGET INFORMATION FOR FARMS IN THE SPRING WHEAT AREA FOR THE FOUR FARM SIZES...52 BUDGET INFORMATION FOR FARMS IN THE SPRING WHEAT AREA FOR THE FOUR FARM S I Z E S XXI HAIL LOSSES AND PAYMENTS BY FARM S IZ E FOR EACH AREA, YIELD SERIES NUMBER I CXXII HAIL LOSSES AND PAYMENTS BY FARM SIZE FOR EACH AREA, YIELD SERIES NUMBER '. 63 v

8 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Thg a u th o r i s in d e b te d t o th e A g r i c u l t u r a l F in a n c e R e s e a rc h B ranch o f th e A g r i c u l t u r a l R e s e a rc h S e r v ic e, U n ite d S t a t e s D e p a rtm en t o f A g r ic u ltu r e f o r m aking p o s s ib l e t h i s r e s e a r c h e f f o r t. A s p e c i a l d e b t o f g r a t i t u d e i s due D r. D. C. M y rick, Mr. Don B o b tw ick, and Mr. LeRoy C. R ude, A g r i c u l t u r a l E c o n o m is ts, Farm E conom ics R e se a rc h D i v i s i o n, A g r i c u l t u r a l R e s e a rc h S e r v ic e, U n ite d S t a t e s D e p a rtm en t o f A g r i c u l t u r e, f o r th e p e r s o n a l and p r o f e s s i o n a l enco u rag em en t r e c e iv e d th ro u g h o u t t h i s s tu d y. Thanks a re e x te n d e d to P r o f e s s o r s R. J. Mc.Connen, E. H. U a rd, and J. F. F is c h e r f o r t h e i r c r i t i c a l re v ie w th ro u g h o u t th e s tu d y. A p p re c i a t i o n i s a ls o e x te n d e d to th e o th e r members o f th e ex am in in g co m m ittee, P r o f e s s o r s M. C. T a y lo r and C.. J e n s e n, and to th e s e c r e t a r i a l s t a f f who e x h ib i te d e x tre m e p a tie n c e i n p u t t i n g t h i s m a t e r i a l i n f i n a l form. Any e r r o r s o r o m is s io n s i n t h i s s tu d y a re th e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y o f th e a u th o r. X v i

9 ABSTRACT T h is r e s e a r c h p ro b lem was d e s ig n e d t o exam ine and e v a lu a te f a r m e r s ' a t t i t u d e s to w a rd c ro p in s u r a n c e and to t e s t th e adequacy o f c ro p in s u r a n c e and t o t e s t th e adequacy o f c ro p in s u r a n c e a s a m eans o f a l l e v i a t i n g th e a d v e rs e e f f e c t s o f y i e l d v a r i a b i l i t y e n c o u n te re d in d r y la n d g r a i n fa rm in g. Crop in s u r a n c e was d e fin e d as any in s u ra n c e a v a ila b l e f o r c ro p p r o t e c t i o n ; i n M ontana t h i s in c lu d e s a l l - r i s k in s u r a n c e and c r o p - h a i l in s u r a n c e. The h y p o th e s e s w e re : I ) t h a t th e u se o f c ro p in s u r a n c e i s more im p o rta n t i n th e s h o r t - r u n th a n i n th e lo n g - r u n and; 2 ) t h a t th e f a r m e r 's u se o f c ro p in s u r a n c e i s in f lu e n c e d by h i s a t t i t u d e to w ard and e v a lu a tio n o f c ro p in s u r a n c e i n r e l a t i o n t o o th e r m ethods o f incom e p r o t e c t i o n. The t e s t s w ere c o n d u c te d w ith em p h asis g iv e n to th e b e g in n in g y e a r s f o r th e fa rm e r. To t e s t t h i s h y p o th e s is and th e ad equacy o f c ro p in s u r a n c e th e fa r m e r s a t t i t u d e to w a rd p la n n in g h i s fa rm in g o p e r a tio n, h i s a t t i t u d e to w a rd c ro p in s u r a n c e, h i s e v a lu a tio n o f h a z a rd s f a c e d, and h i s e v a lu a t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e m ethods o f p r o t e c t i n g h i s farm incom e w ere d e te rm in e d. T hese t e s t s - w e r e c o n d u c te d th ro u g h th e u se o f : l ) th e G uttm an sc a lo g ra m te c h n iq u e f o r m e a s u rin g a t t i t u d e s, and 2) th e p a ir e d c o m p a riso n s te c h n iq u e f o r d e te r m in in g ra n k o r d e r and f in d i n g th e s c a le s e p a r a tio n b e tw een h a z a rd s and a l t e r n a t i v e m ethods o f incom e p r o te c tio n. The r e s u l t s o f t h i s a n a ly s i s w ere th e n com pared to th e r e s u l t s o f b u d g e t a n a ly s i s to d e te rm in e th e adequacy o f c ro p in s u r a n c e. T h is was done f o r two a r e a s ; th e T r ia n g le w in te r w heat and th e N o rth e a s t s p r in g w h eat., F o u r y i e l d s e r i e s c o m p ile d from s t a t e l e a s e d a ta w ere u se d. Two s e r i e s from e a c h a r e a w ere u se d w hich w ere I? t o 20 y e a r s i n le n g t h and i n e a ch c a s e th e a v e ra g e y i e l d o f th e s e r i e s a p p ro x im ate d t h a t o f i t s r e s p e c tiv e a r e a. To d e te rm in e th e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f c ro p in s u r a n c e i t was n e c e s s a ry to c o n s id e r, i n a d d itio n to c a s h e x p e n s e s, th e c o s t o f m a in ta in in g th e fa rm h o u s e h o ld. W ith th e s e e x p e n se s i t was p o s s ib l e to d e te rm in e th e e f f e c t on fa rm incom e o f y i e l d v a r i a b i l i t y b o th i n th e s h o r t and lo n g - r u n. T h is was done f o r th e farm u s in g and n o t u s in g in s u r a n c e. I t was fo u n d i n th e s tu d y t h a t fa rm e rs have a n e g a tiv e a t t i t u d e to w a rd th e u se o f c ro p in s u r a n c e. T h is was c o u p le d w ith a lo w.p la c in g o f c ro p in s u r a n c e i n r e l a t i o n t o a l t e r n a t i v e m ethods o f r e d u c in g th e e f f e c t s o f low y ie l d s '. I n a d d itio n th e b u d g e t a n a ly s is r e v e a le d t h a t t h i s a p p r a i s a l by fa rm e rs may be a c c u r a te w ith r e s p e c t t o p o l i c i e s p r e s e n t l y a v a i l a b l e. vii

10 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION R is k and u n c e r t a i n t y i n G re a t P l a i n s a g r i c u l t u r e a ris fe s from c lim a t ic f a c t o r s, i n s e c t s, d i s e a s e, and f l u c t u a t i o n s i n p r i c e s p a id and p r ic e s r e c e i v e d.. One way t o a l l e v i a t e th e a d v e rs e e f f e c t s o f r i s k and u n c e r t a i n t y i s to u se c ro p in s u r a n c e. THE PROBLEM SITUATION The u n c e r t a i n s i t u a t i o n f a c e d by G re a t P l a i n s fa rm e rs h as le d to th e u se o f in s u r a n c e a s a m a n a g e ria l t o o l t o re d u c e v a r i a b i l i t y i n farm incom e. A g r ic u ltu r e on th e G re a t P l a in s The G re a t P l a i n s fa rm e r h a s alw ays b e e n f a c e d w ith f e a t u r e s w hich make fa rm in g d i f f i c u l t. Among th e s e a re g r e a t e x p a n se s o f f l a t and t r e e l e s s la n d and a v a r i a b l e s e m ia rid c lim a te. \ f Only th e c lim a te has b e e n a c o n tin u in g p ro b le m, a lth o u g h th e g r e a t e x p a n se s o f l e v e l la n d c e r t a i n l y c o n tr i b u te i n a c a u s a l way t o th e c lim a te and to th e dam aging e f f e c t s o f some o f th e c lim a t ic phenom ena. These in c lu d e b l i z z a r d s and c h in o o k w in d s i n w in te r and h a ils to r m s and h o t w inds i n summer. l / A c c o rd in g to Heb th e f l a t, t r e e l e s s la n d o f f e r s no o b s tr u c tio n s f o r a i r m ovem ent. T h is r e s u l t s i n c o n s ta n t movement o f a i r w h ich r e s u l t s i n f r e q u e n t w in d s o f h ig h v e l o c i t y. F a rm e rs w ere u n f a m ilia r w ith t h i s. See H a l t e r P r e s c o t t H ebb, The G re a t P l a i n s. Ginn and Company, New Y o rk, 1931, p p. 3 and 6.

11 i A verage p r e c i p i t a t i o n i n a s e m ia rid a r e a i s g e n e r a lly m a rg in a l f o r c ro p p r o d u c tio n. E ven m o d e ra te v a r i a t i o n s below th e a v e ra g e re d u c e y i e l d s s h a r p ly, and v a r i a t i o n s i n t h i s d i r e c t i o n need n o t be l a r g e to b r in g c o m p le te c ro p f a i l u r e. On th e o th e r hand m odest v a r i a t i o n s above th e mean in c r e a s e y i e l d s s i g n i f i c a n t l y and th e m ore e x tre m e ly f a v o r a b le w e a th e r p a t t e r n s t h a t have b e e n e x p e rie n c e d have d e m o n s tra te d th e p h y s ic a l c a p a c i ty o f th e P l a i n s t o p ro d u ce y i e l d s as h ig h a s any o t h e r a re a. A ll o f th e s e c a u se c o n s id e r a b le damage e a ch y e a r to grow ing c ro p s and to th e fa rm e r t h e i r o c c u rre n c e i s u n c e r t a i n. T here w i l l b e y e a r s when r a i n f a l l i s i n s u f f i c i e n t to p ro d u c e a, c ro p a d e q u a te to c o v e r o p e r a tin g e x p e n s e s. M ontana A g r i c u l t u r a l S t a t i s t i c s show t h a t th e s e e v e n ts do n o t n e c e s s a r i l y come one a t a tim e b u t may in d e e d l a s t s e v e r a l y e a r s. F o r exam ple fro m 1933 t o 1938 p r o d u c tio n i n th e N o rth e a s t S p rin g w h eat c o u n tie s ra n g e d from 1.5 t o 10 b u s h e ls p e r a c r e, a v e ra g in g b u s h e ls p e r a c r e. 2/ H ot d ry w in d s a re n o t l im ite d t o p e r io d s o f d r o u th, b u t have much th e same end r e s u l t. H a ils to rm s, b l i z z a r d s, and c h in o o k s, when th e y o c c u r, do l e s s g e n e r a l damage to c ro p s d u r in g th e y e a r, b u t may d e s tr o y a c ro p f o r an i n d iv i d u a l f a r m e r. B l i z z a r d s and c h in o o k w inds do t h i s by w in te r k i l l i n g o r f r e e z in g th e c ro p and h a ils to r m s by k n o c k in g i t down and t h r e s h in g i t d u rin g th e l a t e s ta g e s o f d e v e lo p m en t. 2 / Montana. A g r i c u l t u r a l S t a t i s t i c s. Volume V, M ontana D e p a rtm en t o f A g r i c u l t u r e, C o o p e ra tin g w ith th e U n ite d S t a t e s D e p a rtm e n t o f A g r i c u l t u r e, A g r i c u l t u r a l M a rk e tin g S e r v ic e, H e le n a, M ontana, D ecem ber, 1954, pp

12 - 3 - Im provem ents have b e e n made i n c u l t i v a t i o n m eth o d s, v a r i e t i e s o f s e e d, and m anagem ent te c h n iq u e s, a l l o f w hich te n d to l e s s e n th e e f f e c t o f d r o u th, i n s e c t s, r u s t, and o th e r d i s e a s e s. Even w ith th e s e im provem en ts t h e r e i s no p h y s ic a l m ethod f o r p r o t e c t i n g a g a in s t th e p a rc h in g h o t w in d s and h a ils to r m s w hich d e s tr o y p o t e n t i a l l y good c r o p s. F o r t h i s r e a s o n fa r m e r s have tu r n e d t o in s u r a n c e a s a m eans o f co m b h tin g th e s e u n c e r t a i n t i e s and s t a b i l i z i n g t h e i r farm in co m es. R is k and U n c e r ta in ty D e fin e d ' Many d e f i n i t i o n s have b e e n g iv e n f o r u n c e r t a i n t y and th e a s s o c ia te d r i s k, how ever f o r th e p u rp o s e s o f t h i s p a p e r th e d e f i n i t i o n s g iv e n by F ra n k K n ig h t w i l l be u se d. K n ig h t s t a t e s " r i s k i s a m e a s u ra b le u n c e r ta in ty, and u n c e r t a i n t y i s an u n m easu rab le u n c e r t a i n t y. The p r a c t i c a l d i f f e r e n c e b e tw e en th e two i s t h a t i n r i s k th e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f th e outcom e i n a g ro u p o f i n s t a n c e s i s known ( e i t h e r th ro u g h c a l c u l a t i o n s a p r i o r i o r from s t a t i s t i c s o f p a s t e x p e r i e n c e ). I n u n c e r t a i n t y i t i s, i n g e n e r a l, im p o s s ib le t o form a g ro u p o f i n s t a n c e s, b e c a u s e th e s i t u a t i o n i s i n a h ig h d e g re e u n iq u e. I f th e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f d i f f e r e n t p o s s ib l e outcom es i n a g ro u p o f i n s t a n c e s i s known, i t i s p o s s ib l e to g e t r i d o f any r e a l u n c e r t a i n t y by th e e x p e d ie n t g ro u p in g o f i n s t a n c e s. T h at i t i s p o s s ib le d o e s n o t mean t h a t t h i s w i l l b e done and f o r th e i n d i v i d u a l t h e r e i s no d i f f e r e n c e b e tw e e n a m e a su ra b le u n c e r t a i n t y and an u n m easu rab le u n c e r t a i n t y. 11 3/ 3 / F ra n k H. K n ig h t, R is k. U n c e r ta in ty, and P r o f i t. H oughton M if f lin Company, New Y o rk, 1921, pp

13 - L r - U sin g K n ig h t's d e f i n i t i o n we c a n sa y t h a t f a c t o r s su c h as c lim a te and p r i c e f l u c t u a t i o n s a re u n m easu rab le u n c e r t a i n t i e s f o r th e i n d iv i d u a l f a r m e r. H ow ever, th e incom e e f f e c t s o f m ost c lim a t ic f a c t o r s ' su ch as h a i l, d r o u th, and w ind a re u n c e r t a i n t i e s w hich may b e s h i f t e d to an in s u ra n c e company w hich c a n g ro u p th e i n s t a n c e s and become th e r i s k t a k e r. To th e e x te n t t h a t a fa rm e r s h i f t s th e u n c e r t a i n t y th ro u g h th e u se o f in s u ra n c e th e im p a c t o f th e e v e n t may be le s s e n e d. U n le s s th e fa rm e r ta k e s in s u r a n c e e v e ry y e a r f o r th e s e c o n tin g e n c ie s th e y a re s t i l l u n c e r ta in to th e f a r m e r. Even i f th e fa rm e r c a r r i e s in s u r a n c e e v e ry y e a r an elem en t o f incom e u n c e r t a i n t y re m a in s i n th e fo rm o f p r ic e and y i e l d u n c e r ta in ty w h ich c a n n o t b e f u l l y in s u r e d ; Use o f In s u r a n c e i n A g r ic u ltu r e The f i r s t a tte m p t t o i n s u r e g row ing c ro p s was a g a in s t h a i l on C o n n e c tic u t to b a c c o i n By 1920 h a i l in s u ra n c e s o ld by m u tu a ls, s to c k com panies and s t a t e h a i l d e p a rtm e n ts was a d o p te d by G re a t P la in s f a r m e r s.' L / The f i r s t a tte m p t t o i n s u r e c ro p s f o r o th e r th a n h a i l came i n th e form o f a g e n e r a l c ro p in s u r a n c e i n 1899, fo llo w e d a g a in i n 1917, 1919, 1931, and A ll o f th e s e w ere by p r i v a t e co m p an ies and a l l f a i l e d. 5 / I n 1938 C o n g ress p a s s e d th e F e d e r a l Crop I n s u r a n c e Act w hich 4 / Jo h n C. E l l i c k s p n, H a il I n s u ra n c e on Growing C ro p s. U n ite d S ta te s D e p a rtm en t o f A g r i c u l t u r e, I n fo r m a tio n B u l l e t i n 56, p r o c e s s e d Ju n e, 1951, p p '5 / W illia m G. M u rray, A g r i c u l t u r a l F in a n c e. Iow a S t a t e C o lle g e P r e s s, Ames, Iow a, 1953, p. 161.

14 - 5 - now p r o v id e s a l l - r i s k in s u r a n c e f o r su c h c r o p s,a s w h e a t, c o tto n, f l a x, c o r n, to b a c c o, b e a n s, c i t r u s, and c o m b in a tio n s o f c ro p s. Many p e o p le who c h o se fa rm in g a s an o c c u p a tio n w i l l have as t h e i r f i r s t g o a l s u r v i v a l o f th e farm f ir m and th e farm h o u s e h o ld. T h is may be a c c o m p lish e d by m a in ta in in g a f a v o r a b le n e t w o rth p o s i t i o n and in c r e a s in g h i s n e t w o rth o v e r tim e u n t i l h i s s u r v i v a l g o a l i s a s s u r e d. T h is means th e fa rm e r n e e d s " to m anage p r o d u c tio n, i n v e n t o r i e s, c a s h r e s e r v e s, and a c c e s s t o o u ts id e fu n d s (th ro u g h in s u r a n c e and c r e d i t ) so a s t o m inim ize th e p r o b a b i l i t y o f a r i s k l o s s l a r g e enough to r e n d e r th e fa rm e r i n s o lv e n t ". / The in s o l v e n t p o s i t i o n i s d e f in e d to be w here c a s h r e c e i p t s f a l l s h o r t o f m e e tin g n e c e s s a r y p r o d u c tio n and fa m ily l i v i n g e x p e n se s as w e ll a s d e b t and t a x p ay m en ts. I n th e G re a t P l a i n s r e g io n t h i s s u r v iv a l g o a l i s n o t alw ay s e a s i l y a t t a i n e d b e c a u s e o f th e u n c e r t a i n t i e s p r e v io u s ly m en tio n e d and by th e p r e c a r io u s c a p i t a l p o s i t i o n o f b e g in n in g fa r m e r s. The seco n d g o a l o f many fa rm e rs w i l l be' c a p ita l- a c c u m u la tio n. They w i l l t r y t o a t t a i n t h i s a f t e r th e s u r v i v a l g o a l has. b e e n re a c h e d. The s u r v i v a l g o a l o f th e fa rm e r may b e c o n s id e r e d t o b e th e s h o r t - r u n g o a l and c a p i t a l a c c u m u la tio n th e lo n g - r u n g o a l. W ith th e a d v e n t o f c ro p in s u r a n c e th e fa rm e r was f a c e d w ith th e d e c is i o n o f w h e th e r o r n o t to p r o t e c t h i s incom e w ith in s u r a n c e. He may make t h i s d e c is io n - e a c h y e a r o r he may make th e d e c is io n o n c e. Is/ R a in e r S c h lc k e le, " F a rm e r's A d a p ta tio n s t o Income U n c e r ta in ty ", J o u r n a l o f Farm E c o n o m ics. V o l. XXXII, No. 3, A u g u st, 1950, p.' 363.

15 6 - T here a re many r e a s o n s why fa r m e r s fa c e d w ith u n c e r t a i n t i e s choose t o u se o r n o t t o u se in s u r a n c e. Among th e s e a re a t t i t u d e s to w ard in s u r a n c e w h ich may b e a f f e c te d by su c h f a c t o r s as a g e, e x p e rie n c e, th e s i z e o f u n i t, n e t w o rth p o s i t i o n o r c o s t o f in s u r a n c e. A fa rm e r may p la y hunch es and buy a l l - r i s k o r c r o p ^ h a il in s u r a n c e o n ly once i n a w h ile, sa y one o u t o f f o u r y e a r s, t h in k in g he c a n i n t h i s m anner make in s u ra n c e pay o f f f o r him, w hich i t may a c t u a l l y d o. I n t h i s c a s e he may be c a l c u l a t i n g a p r i o r i th e p r o b a b i l i t y o f an e v e n t su c h as a h a i l sto rm o c c u r r in g. T h is ty p e o f c a l c u l a t i o n w ould be a s u b je c t iv e judgm ent on th e p a r t o f th e f a r m e r s. Some fa rm e rs may n o t u se in s u r a n c e b e c a u s e th e y c o n s id e r th e im p a c t o f th e r i s k to b e so s l i g h t as n o t t o w a rra n t i t s u s e. T here may a ls o b e i n s t i t u t i o n a l r e a s o n s why fa r m e r s ch o o se t o u se o r n o t u se in s u r a n c e. T hese may stem fro m p a s t e x p e rie n c e w ith th e in s u r a n c e compa,- n n i e s, f o r ex am p le, u n s a t i s f a c t o r y a d ju s tm e n t o f l o s s e s. In s u r a n c e P o l i c i e s P r e s e n t l y A v a ila b le I n M ontana, F e d e r a l Crop In s u r a n c e i s o f f e r e d f o r w h eat i n 19 c o u n tie s and f o r b a r l e y i n s i x. As w r i t t e n i n 1939 and r e v is e d i n 1946 th e F e d e r a l C rop I n s u ra n c e A ct s t a t e s t h a t th e amount o f th e c o v e ra g e o f f e r e d p e r a c re m ust be an amount lo w e r th a n th e p e r a c re c o s t o f p ro d u c in g th e c ro p i n th e a r e a and i n no c a s e s h a l l i t e x c eed 75 p e rc e n t o f th e a v e ra g e y i e l d. As t h i s i s an a l l - r i s k ty p e p o l ic y th e in d e m n ity may b e c o lle c t e d i f damage to th e c ro p i s from any n a t u r a l c a u se and i f th e damage b r in g s th e a v e ra g e y i e l d f o r th e farm below th e y i e l d o f c o v e ra g e. T h is l e v e l o f c o v e ra g e v a r i e s b e tw e e n a r e a s and b e tw e e n c o u n tie s d e p e n d in g upon th e

16 - 7 - r i s k o f th e a r e a. I n th e s p r in g w heat c o u n tie s th e c o v e ra g e v a r i e s from 4 to 9 b u s h e ls, f o r th e w in te r w heat c o u n tie s i t v a r i e s fro m 4 to The lo w e r c o v e ra g e s a re u s u a lly a s s o c ia te d w ith f i e l d s w here c o n tin u o u s c ro p p in g i s p r a c t i c e d. The prem ium r a t e s c h a rg e d v a ry a c c o rd in g t o th e c o v e ra g e and r i s k a s s o c ia te d w ith th e a r e a from.85 b u s h e ls to b u s h e ls i n th e s p rin g w h eat a r e a and fro m.59 b u s h e ls t o 1.50 b u s h e ls i n th e w in te r w heat a re a. R e d u c tio n s i n prem ium s a re a v a ila b l e to th e fa rm e r who i n s u r e s 200 a c r e s o r o v e r. The r e d u c tio n to him i s 4 p e r c e n t i f h i s in s u r e d a c re a g e i s o v e r 200 a c r e s and 2 p e r c e n t f o r e a c h a d d i t i o n a l 100 a c r e s. I n a d d itio n r e d u c tio n s a re a v a ila b l e t o e v e ry fa rm e r; f o r e a c h n o - lo s s - y e a r he w i l l r e c e iv e a r e d u c tio n o f 5 p e rc e n t up to a maximum o f 50 p e r c e n t. I f th e fa rm e r h a s f i v e c o n s e c u tiv e n o - lo s s y e a r s and h as a l o s s th e s i x t h y e a r h i s prem ium w i l l th e n go b a c k to a 15 p e rc e n t r e d u c t io n. T h is means t h a t i f a fa rm e r c a r r i e s i t e v e ry y e a r and c a n go f o u r y e a r s w ith o u t a l o s s h i s prem ium w i l l b e re d u c e d a t l e a s t 15 p e rc e n t r e g a r d l e s s o f th e l o s s e s e x p e rie n c e d a f t e r t h a t. H a il in s u r a n c e i s l e s s c o m p lic a te d th a n F e d e ra l Crop I n s u r a n c e. I t o p e r a te s th e same as f i r e in s u r a n c e, a u to m o b ile in s u r a n c e, o r any in s u r a n c e w here th e in d e m n ity i s p a id on th e p e rc e n t o f dam age. T here a re a b o u t 43 s to c k h a i l in s u r a n c e com panies o p e r a tin g in M ontana a lo n g w ith th e S t a t e H a il B oard in s u r a n c e. The p r i v a t e com panies a l l o f f e r i d e n t i c a l c o v e ra g e s and r a t e s. The c o v e ra g e o f f e r e d f o r h a i l in s u r a n c e by th e s e com panies i s th e amount o f c o v e ra g e th e fa rm e r f e e l s

17 8 he n e e d s, th e c o v e ra g e c a n n o t ex ceed th e e x p e c te d v a lu e o f th e c ro p. The S t a t e H a il B oard l i m i t s c o v e ra g e t o $12 an a c r e. The R e s e a rc h P roblem The p u rp o se o f t h i s r e s e a r c h i s t o d e te rm in e f a r m e r 's a t t i t u d e s to w a rd and e v a lu a tio n o f a l l - r i s k and c r o p - h a i l in s u r a n c e i n r e l a t i o n to a l t e r n a t i v e m ethods o f p r o t e c t i n g farm in co m es. F a rm ers a p p r a i s a l o f th e h a z a rd s fa c e d w i l l a ls o be d e te rm in e d. A t e s t o f th e adequacy o f a l l - r i s k and c r o p - h a i l in s u r a n c e as a m eans o f r e d u c in g th e e f f e c t s o f y i e l d v a r i a b i l i t y on th e flo w o f farm incom es w i l l be c o n d u c te d i n an e f f o r t to r e l a t e t h i s t o fa rm e rs a t t i t u d e s and e v a lu a tio n s. OBJECTIVES The g e n e r a l o b j e c t iv e o f t h i s s tu d y w i l l b e to a p p r a is e c ro p in s u ra n c e from th e v ie w p o in t o f b o th th e fa rm e rs and th e in s u r a n c e co m panies and make s u g g e s tio n s f o r i t s im provem ent as a t o o l i n th e m anagem ent o f fa rm s. S p e c if ic o b j e c t iv e s a r e : 1. t o d e te rm in e th e f a r m e r 's e v a lu a tio n o f in s u r a n c e a s a m a n a g e ria l t o o l i n r e l a t i o n to o th e r means o f c o m b atin g r i s k and u n c e r t a i n t y. 2. t o d e te rm in e f a r m e r 's a t t i t u d e s to w a rd a l l - r i s k and c r o p - h a il in s u r a n c e as a m eans o f s t a b i l i z i n g farm incom e. 3. to t e s t th e adequacy o f p r e s e n t in s u r a n c e to h e lp fa rm e rs s u r v iv e u n fa v o ra b le w e a th e r c o n d itio n s th ro u g h b u d g e t a n a ly s i s.

18 _ 9 - HYPOTHESIS I t i s m ore im p o r ta n t f o r M ontana fa rm e rs w ith a low n e t w o rth th a n a h ig h n e t w o rth t o u se a l l - r i s k and c r o p - h a il, in s u r a n c e f o r s t a b i l i z i n g fa rm incom e and a t t a i n i n g th e g o a l o f s u r v i v a l. S p e c if ic h y p o th e s e s a re s % 1. th e fa rm e r who u s e s a l l - r i s k and c r o p - h a i l in s u r a n c e i s l e s s l i k e l y t o e x p e rie n c e y e a r s when fa rm incom e i s n o t l a r g e enough t o c o v e r fa rm in g e x p e n se s th a n th e fa rm e r who d o e s n o t. 2. th e f a r m e r s u se o f a l l - r i s k and c r o p - h a i l in s u r a n c e i s in f lu e n c e d by b o th h i s a t t i t u d e to w ard and h i s e v a lu a tio n o f i t a s a m a n a g e ria l t o o l w ith r e s p e c t to a l t e r n a t i v e m ethods o f p r o t e c t i o n. PIAN OF FOLLOWING CHAPTERS The a n a l y t i c a l m ethods w i l l be d e s c r ib e d i n C h a p te r I I. An u n d e r s ta n d in g o f th e m ethods a re r e q u ir e d f o r co m p re h en sio n o f th e a n a ly s is w h ich fo llo w s, i n th e re m a in in g c h a p te r s. The m ethods are'; I ) Guttm an s c a l e, 2) C o n tin g en c y t a b l e s, 3) P a ir e d c o m p a riso n s, and 4) B u d g e ts. The f a r m e r 's a t t i t u d e s to w a rd p la n n in g and in s u r a n c e w i l l be d e s c r ib e d i n C h a p te r I I I. T h is in c lu d e s t e s t i n g a t t i t u d e s f o r a s s o c i a t i o n w ith o th e r f a c t o r s. I n C h a p te r IV th e fa rm e rs e v a lu a tio n s o f c ro p in s u r a n c e a s a manag e r i a l t o o l f o r s t a b i l i z i n g farm incom e w i l l be exam ined.

19 C h a p te r V w i l l be d e v o te d t o b u d g e t a n a ly s i s o f c a p i t a l a c c u m u la tio n i n o r d e r t o d e te rm in e th e s u i t a b i l i t y o f c ro p in s u r a n c e a s a m a n a g e ria l t o o l. C h a p te r VI w i l l b e d e v o te d to im p lic a tio n s and f u t u r e r e s e a r c h. C h a p te r V II w i l l b e d e v o te d to a summary o f th e s tu d y.

20 CHAPTER I I METHODOLOGY USED' IN STUDY The S tu d y A rea Two o f th e m a jo r w heat p ro d u c in g r e g io n s o f M ontana, th e N o rth e a s t, s p r in g w heat a r e a and th e T r ia n g le w in te r w h eat a r e a w ere s tu d i e d. V a lle y, D a n i e ls, S h e r id a n, R o o s e v e lt, R ic h la n d, and McCone c o u n tie s r e p r e s e n te d th e N o r th e a s t w h ile T o o le, L i b e r t y, H i l l, C h o u teau, F e rg u s, J u d i t h B a s in, Teton, and P o n d e ra c o u n tie s r e p r e s e n te d th e T r ia n g le. These a re shown i n F ig u re I. Sam ple c o m m u n ities w ere random ly draw n fro m a l l o f th e s e c o u n tie s, e a c h d e s ig n e d to c o n ta in a t l e a s t 15 fa rm s, 10 o f w hich w ere to be c o n ta c te d. Farm s w ere, e lim in a te d w h ich d id n o t have as t h e i r m ajo r e n t e r p r i s e s m a ll g r a i n p r o d u c tio n. The in f o r m a tio n c o l l e c t e d r e p r e s e n te d 24 co m m u n ities and in c lu d e d 251 fa r m e r s. P ro c e d u re o f A n a ly sis. F o u r a n a l y t i c a l te c h n iq u e s a re u se d i n t h i s s tu d y ; l ) sc a lo g ra m a n a l y s i s, to d e te rm in e th e f a r m e r s ' a t t i t u d e to w ard c ro p in s u r a n c e and to w a rd p la n n in g i n g e n e r a l, 2) p a ir e d c o m p a ris o n s, t o d e te rm in e th e f a r m e r s ' e v a lu a tio n s o f c ro p and c r o p ^ h a il in s u r a n c e i n r e l a t i o n to a l t e r n a t i v e m ethods o f s t a b i l i z i n g fa rm incom e, 3) c o n tin g e n c y t a b l e s, t o e v a lu a te th e f a r m e r s ' a t t i t u d e s to w a rd in s u r a n c e and p la n n in g, and 4 ) b u d g e t s t u d i e s, t o d e te rm in e th e ad equacy o f c ro p in s u r a n c e i n h e lp in g fa r m e r s a t t a i n t h e i r g o a ls. E ach o f th e s e w i l l b e e x p la in e d

21 Toole Valley / Daniels ^ishi Cv Pondera Ro osevelt Teton Chouteau McCone JRichIond Juditm -L o$in Fergus F ig u re I. Map o f C o u n tie s i n S tu d y A rea.

22 13 - i n t h i s c h a p te r i n o r d e r t h a t th e r e a d e r w i l l have an e le m e n ta ry u n d e r s ta n d in g o f t h e i r a p p l i c a t i o n to t h i s s tu d y. The fa rm s i z e s a r e : 1) s m a ll fa rm s r a n g in g from 95 to 580 c ro p a c r e s, a v e ra g in g 384 c ro p a c r e s, 2 ) medium fa rm s r a n g in g fro m 600 t o 1,095 c ro p a c r e s, a v e ra g in g 830 c ro p a c r e s, 3) medium l a r g e farm s r a n g in g from 1,1 0 0 to 1,360 c ro p a c r e s, a v e ra g in g 1,200 c ro p a c r e s, and 4 ) l a r g e farm s ra n g in g fro m 1,400 t o 2,400 c ro p a c r e s, a v e ra g in g I,700 c ro p a c r e s. I t w i l l b e assum ed th ro u g h o u t th e s tu d y t h a t th e p r i c e s p a id and p r i c e s r e c e iv e d by fa r m e r s a re th o s e p a id and r e c e iv e d i n The c o s t i n f o r m a tio n used i n th e b u d g e ts a re fro m a s tu d y c u r r e n t l y b e in g c o n d u c te d by th e Farm E conom ics R e s e a rc h D i v i s i o n, i / Crop in s u r a n c e w i l l be d e f in e d as in s u r a n c e f o r incom e p r o t e c t i o n and w i l l in c lu d e b o th c r o p - h a i l and a l l - r i s k c ro p in s u r a n c e. The premium r a t e s and p o l i c i e s o f th e in s u r a n c e co m panies a re th o s e a v a ila b l e to f a r m e r s i n ATTITUDE SCALES An a t t i t u d e may be d e f in e d a s "th e, d e g re e o f p o s i t i v e o r n e g a tiv e a f f e c t a s s o c i a te d w ith some p s y c h o lo g ic a l o b j e c t ", 2 / T h is p s y c h o lo g ic a l l / S tu d y i n p r o g r e s s, S u p p ly R esponse t o W heat on D ry la n d Crop Farms i n M ontana, c o n d u c te d by LeRoy C. R ude, A g r i c u l t u r a l E c o n o m is t, Farm E conom ics R e s e a rc h D i v i s i o n, A g r i c u l t u r a l R e se a rc h S e r v ic e, U n ited S t a t e s D e p a rtm e n t o f A g r ic u ltu r e. 2 / A. L. E d w ard s, T e c h n iq u e s o f A t t itu d e S c a le C o n s tr u c tio n, A p p le to n - C e n tu ry -Cr o f t, I n c., New Y o rk, 1957,! p. 2.

23 - U - o b je c t may be a sym bol, p h r a s e, s lo g a n, p e rs o n, i n s t i t u t i o n, i d e a l o r i d e a to w a rd w h ich p e o p le may d i f f e r w ith r e s p e c t to p o s i t i v e o r n e g a tiv e " a f f e c t ". I n t h i s s tu d y th e p s y c h o lo g ic a l o b je c ts w ere c ro p in s u ra n c e and p la n n in g. The i n d i v i d u a l s ' a t t i t u d e to w ard an o b je c t i s d e te rm in e d th ro u g h h is p o s i t i v e o r n e g a tiv e re s p o n s e to e a c h o f a s e r i e s. o f a p p r o p r ia te s ta te m e n ts. I n o r d e r f o r th e s e s ta te m e n ts to be e f f e c t i v e i t i s n e c e s s a r y t h a t a few ' b a s ic r e q u ir e m e n ts b e m et; 1) s ta te m e n ts w hich r e f e r to th e p a s t r a t h e r th a n th e p r e s e n t sh o u ld b e a v o id e d, 2) f a c t u a l s ta te m e n ts sh o u ld be a v o id e d, 3 ) u se s ta te m e n ts w hich r e f e r to th e p s y c h o lo g ic a l o b j e c t, 4 ) s e l e c t s t a t e m en ts t h a t a re b e lie v e d to c o v e r th e e n t i r e ra n g e o f th e e f f e c t i v e s c a le o f i n t e r e s t, 5) a v o id s ta te m e n ts t h a t a re l i k e l y to b e a g re e d o r d is a g r e e d w ith by a lm o st e v e ry o n e, 6 ) k eep th e la n g u a g e o f th e' s ta te m e n ts s im p le, c l e a r, and d i r e c t,? ) e a c h s ta te m e n t s h o u ld c o n ta in o n ly one co m p lete th o u g h t, and 8 ) a v o id am biguous s ta te m e n ts, and w ords t h a t may n o t be u n d e r s to o d by e v e ry o n e. 3 / I f th e s e c r i t e r i a a re m et th e s ta te m e n ts sh o u ld have th e same m eaning to a l l r e s p o n d e n ts, w l t h i a common fram e o f r e f e r e n c e to th e o b j e c t. T here a re s e v e r a l m ethods o f u s in g th e s e s ta te m e n ts t o o b ta in th e a t t i t u d e o f th e r e s p o n d e n t, and from among them th e m ethod c a l l e d th e S c a lo g ra m was c h o sen f o r t h i s s tu d y. T h is m ethod, d e v e lo p e d by L. A. 3 / I b i d., p p

24 G uttm an i n th e 's and i n 1.950, i s commonly c a l l e d th e G uttm an s c a le and will be r e f e r r e d to as su ch th ro u g h o u t th e s tu d y. 4 / I n o r d e r f o r a s e t o f s ta te m e n ts w ith a common c o n te n t to c o n s t i t u t e a G uttm an s c a l e th e i n d i v i d u a l w ith a h ig h e r s c o re th a n a n o th e r i n d i v i d u a l m ust ra n k as h ig h o r h ig h e r on e v e ry s ta te m e n t i n th e s e t. I f t h i s hap p en s t h e s ta te m e n ts a re s a id to c o n s t i t u t e an u n id im e n s io n a l s c a l e. I n th e u n id im e n s io n a l s c a l e th e s ta te m e n ts e s t a b l i s h a c o n tin u u m r a n g in g from l e a s t to m ost f a v o r a b le w ith r e s p e c t to th e p s y c h o lo g ic a l s ta te m e n t ( in s u r a n c e i n t h i s c a s e ). I n g e n e r a l th e co n tin u u m w ould mean t h a t e v e ry p e rs o n who had a s c a l e s c o re o f t h r e e a g re e d t o th e same t h r e e s ta te m e n ts, th o s e who had a s c o re o f f o u r a g re e d to th e same t h r e e a s th o s e w ith a s c o re o f th r e e p lu s one m ore s ta te m e n t, and th o s e who had a s c o re o f f i v e a g re e d w ith th o s e who had a s c o re o f f o u r p lu s one m ore s ta te m e n t and so on. I t i s th e p u rp o se o f th e G uttm an s c a l e to t e l l us w hat th e s c a l e s c o re i s f o r e a c h i n d i v i d u a l. I f th e num ber o f s ta te m e n ts i s r e l a t i v e l y s m a ll and t h e r e a re o n ly a few re s p o n d e n ts th e s c a l i n g Jaay b e done m a n u a lly. I f th e num ber o f r e s p o n d e n ts i s l a r g e t h i s w i l l b e m ore r e a d i l y done by th e u se o f a s o r t e r and a r e p r o d u c in g punch a f t e r th e in f o r m a tio n o r an sw ers to th e s ta te m e n ts have b e e n punched on c a r d s. The l a t t e r m ethod was used i n t h i s s tu d y as th e num ber o f re s p o n d e n ts was 251. L / I b i d.. p. 172.

25 16 One m ethod f o r s c a l i n g th e s ta te m e n ts by th e m achine m ethod was d e v e lo p e d by C a ro l L. S to n e w e ig h tin g th e ' s ta te m e n ts. u s in g R o b e rt H. F o r d 's p ro c e d u re o f The m ethod em ployed by b o th R o b e rt F ord and C a ro l S to n e i s t h a t th e w e ig h ts w i l l in c r e a s e i n m o d ifie d g e o m e tric p r o g r e s s io n. E ach g e o m e tric s c o re may b e a t t a i n e d i n o n ly one way. I n an e ig h t - s t a te m e n t s c a l e a re s p o n d e n t w ith a p e r f e c t n e g a tiv e re s p o n s e to ml 1 e ig h t s ta te m e n ts w ould have a g e o m e tric s c o re o f 0. T h is w ould be th e on ly way t h i s g e o m e tric s c o re c o u ld be a t t a i n e d. I f a re s p o n d e n t had a p e r f e c t p o s i t i v e r e s p o n s e t o th e e ig h t s ta te m e n ts h i s g e o m e tric s c o re w ould b e 255. B etw een 0 and 255 t h e r e a re 254 p o s s ib l e c o m b in a tio n s o f r e s p o n s e p a t t e r n s, s c o r e s 0, I, 3, 7, 15, 3 1, 63, 127, and 255, a re p e r f e c t g e o m e tric s c o r e s and w i l l c o n ta in no e r r o r s, a l l o t h e r s w i l l. The g e o m e tric s c o re i s o b ta in e d by a d d in g th e w e ig h ts o f th e s ta te m e n ts answ ered p o s i t i v e l y. F o r ex am p le, s ta te m e n t one h as a w e ig h t o f one, and two a w e ig h t o f tw o. T h is g iv e s a g e o m e tric s c o re o f t h r e e. The e r r o r s a re r e c o r d e d and d i s t r i b u t e d a c c o rd in g to ite m. T a b le I i l l u s t r a t e s some r e s p o n s e p a t t e r n s. F o r exam ple re s p o n d e n t H had a g e o m e tric s c o re o f 191, he c o u ld o b t a i n t h i s s c o re o n ly by an sw erin g p o s i t i v e l y to a l l b u t th e s e v e n th s ta te m e n t i n a s e r i e s o f e i g h t, had he answ ered p o s i t i v e l y t o t h i s q u e s tio n he w ould have had a p e r f e c t s c o re o f 255. T h is i s o b ta in e d by a d d in g th e w e ig h ts {l \ + 128) o r 22n f o r a l l p o s i t i v e r e s p o n s e s. 5 / C a ro l L. S to n e, M aohine M ethod f o r S c a lin g Twelve D ic h o to m ie s., S t a t e C o lle g e o f W a sh in g to n, pp

26 TABLE I. RESPONSE PATTERN BY QUESTION AJTO RESPONDENT R esp o n d ent R eso o n se o a t t e r n to Questions G eom etric S c a le Number I 2 3 A 5 A 7 A s c o re s c o re o f e r r o r s A '0 O O O O O O O O O O B O I '0 O O O O O 2 2 I C I I 1 O O O O O 7 3. O D I I I O O O O I E 1 1 O 1 O 1 O O F 1 1 I I O O O O 15 4 O G 1 I I 1 I O O O 31 5 O H I I I O I I I I 1 I 1 O I I J I' S 8 O W eight M 0» I n a d d itio n t o th e g e o m e tric s c o re th e re s p o n d e n t i s g iv e n a s c a le s c o r e w h ich c o rre s p o n d s t o th e r e s p o n s e c a te g o r y he b e lo n g s i n. In th e c a s e o f th e r e s p o n d e n t w h o.answ ered p o s i t i v e l y to a l l b u t th e s e v e n th q u e s tio n, i n a s e r i e s o f e i g h t, h is s c a l e s c o re w ould be e i g h t, th e same as i f h e 'd answ ered a l l e ig h t p o s i t i v e l y, b u t w ith one n e g a tiv e e r r o r. The r e a s o n f o r t h i s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n i s t h a t he m ost re s e m b le s t h a t g ro u p. A re s p o n d e n t w ith a g e o m e tric s c o re o f two may be c l a s s i f i e d e i t h e r w ith th e z e ro g ro u p o r th e g ro u p w ith a s c a l e s c o re o f tw o, i n e i t h e r c a se he w i l l r e c e iv e ah e r r o r o f o n e. A c c o rd in g t o th e r u l e s s e t up by F ord he w i l l b e p u t i n th e g ro u p w ith a s c a l e s c o re o f two and he w i l l r e c e iv e a n e g a tiv e e r r o r o f o n e. A re s p o n d e n t w ith a g e o m e tric s c o re o f 135 w ould have answ ered p o s i t i v e l y to th e f i r s t t h r e e ite m s, i n a s e r i e s o f e i g h t, n e g a tiv e t o th e n e x t f o u r and p o s i t i v e t o th e l a s t o n e. T h is p u ts him i n th e g ro u p w ith a s c a l e s c o re o f t h r e e w ith one p o s i t i v e e r r o r, th e

27 e r r o r com ing fro m th e l a s t q u e s tio n w h ich he answ ered p o s i t i v e l y. In i n s t a n c e s w here th e re s p o n d e n t h as an e r r o r, and i t i s u n c e r t a i n w h e th e r i t sh o u ld b e a p o s i t i v e o r n e g a tiv e e r r o r, th e e r r o r w i l l b e s p l i t and one h a l f w i l l b e n e g a tiv e and one h a l f p o s i t i v e. F o r ex am p le, i f th e re s p o n d e n t answ ered a l l q u e s tio n s n e g a tiv e ly, e x c e p t th e seco n d one 'h is e r r o r w ould b e s p l i t h a l f and h a l f. I f t h e r e a re two e r r o r s, and t h e r e i s d o u b t a b o u t w h ich g ro u p he b e lo n g s t o, th e e r r o r w i l l b e s p l i t t w o - th ir d s n e g a tiv e, tw o - th ir d s p o s i t i v e, o n e - t h i r d n e g a tiv e, and t w o - th i r d s p o s i t i v e i n t h a t o r d e r f o r th e f o u r r e s p o n s e s in v o lv e d. V a l i d i t y o f S c a le S c o re s.and Ju s.t.i ic.a t.i.qn-0. -IIg.e. T here a r e - t h r e e c r i t e r i a t o e s t a b l i s h th e v a l i d i t y o f a s c a le i n th e G uttm an s e n s e ; l ) t h e c o e f f i c i e n t o f r e p r o d u c i b i l i t y m ust b e.9 0 o r o v e r. Th@ c o e f f i c i e n t i s c a l c u l a t e d by t o t a l i n g th e number o f e r r o r s and d iv id i n g t h i s by th e num ber o f r e s p o n d e n ts m u ltip l ie d by th e number o f s ta te m e n ts, a l l s u b tr a c te d from 1 o r : 6/ C o e f f i c ie n t o f T o ta,! number..of_errpr_g r e p r o d u c i b i l i t y Number o f r e s p o n d e n ts x num ber o f ite m s I t h a s a p o s s ib l e ra n g e from z e ro to o n e. 2) No ite m i n th e s c a le h a s a t o t a l p o s i t i v e o r n e g a tiv e e r r o r w hich i s m ore th a n $0 p e r c e n t o f th e p o s i t i v e re s p o n s e ( f o r th e p o s i t i v e e r r o r ) o r n e g a tiv e r e s p o n s e ( f o r th e n e g a tiv e e r r o r ). 3) T hat th e t o t a l num ber o f e r r o r s f o r any ite m i s no m ore th a n 15r p e r c e n t o f th e t o t a l num ber o f re s p o n s e s f o r t h a t ite m. U I b i d.. p. 10.

28 T h at th e s e q u a l i f i c a t i o n s a re m et may be d e te rm in e d from a t a b l e such as. T ab le T I, w hich shows th e num ber o f p o s i t i v e r e s p o n s e s and t h e i r e r r o r s, th e num ber o f n e g a tiv e r e s p o n s e s and t h e i r e r r o r s, t o t a l e r r o r s and p e r c e n t o f e r r o r s f o r e a c h ite m. TABLE I I. GUTTMAN SCALE ANALYSIS EOR PLANNING ATTITUDES S c h e d u le s P o s i t i v e s N e g a tiv e «E r r o r s Q uestion'- s R e sp o n se s s E r r o r s s R e sp o n se s E r r o r s ; T o ta l _ : T o ta l Number Number Number Number Number P e r c e n t ' T o ta l C o e f f i c ie n t o f r e p r o d u c i b i l i t y - I % 251 x 8 To o b ta in th e t a b l e th e num ber o f n e g a tiv e and p o s i t i v e re s p o n s e s a re c o u n te d f o r e a c h q u e s tio n a lo n g w ith t h e i r r e s p e c tiv e e r r o r s. T h is i s done from th e t a b u l a t e d s h e e t o b ta in e d by l i s t i n g th e c a r d s used f o r th e m achine m ethod o f s c a l i n g. The m achine may b e used t o c o u n t th e t o t a l e r r o r s, t o t a l n e g a tiv e e r r o r s and t o t a l p o s i t i v e e r r o r s so th e r e s e a r c h e r n eed n o t go th ro u g h t h i s c o u n tin g p r o c e s s by hand. I n T ab le I I th e c r i t e r i o n t h a t no ite m have more th a n $0 p e rc e n t e r r o r i s n o t m et. A f te r o b s e rv in g t h a t two o f t h e c r i t e r i a had b e e n m et, th e re s p o n s e p a t t e r n o f a l l re s p o n d e n ts was s tu d ie d and i t was d e c id e d t h a t th e s e ite m s sh o u ld n o t b e r e s c a le d.a s. w ould be s u g g e s te d by th e. c r i t e r i o n. V

29 20 T h is c o n c lu s io n was re a c h e d b e c a u s e i n i n s t a n c e s w here t h e r e a re more th a n a 50 p e r c e n t e r r o r i t w i l l b e n o tic e d t h a t t h e r e a re v e ry few r e s p o n d e n ts, m ost o f w h ich answ ered i n c o r r e c t l y. T h is s u g g e s ts t h a t judgm ent sh o u ld b e used i n a p p l i c a t i o n o f th e c r i t e r i a. A lth o u g h a t t i t u d e s a lo n e c a n n o t b e c o n s id e re d as d e te r m in a n ts o f f a r m e r 's a c t i o n, t h e i r u se i n a g r i c u l t u r a l econom ics r e s e a r c h may le a d t o i n s i g h t s i n t o th e s o l u t i o n s o f p ro b le m s c o n s id e r e d im p o rta n t by th e f a r m e r s th e m s e lv e s. T h is p o in t i s i l l u s t r a t e d more f u l l y i n C h a p te r I I I. CONTINGENCY TABLES A f te r th e s c a l e s c o re h a s b e e n d e te rm in e d 1 f o r e a c h re s p o n d e n t and we know th e d e g re e o f f a v o r a b le n e s s o r u n f a v o r a b le n e s s th e n e x t s te p i s to d e te rm in e w hat f a c t o r s in f lu e n c e th e r e s p o n d e n t 's a t t i t u d e to w ard c ro p in s u r a n c e. To do t h i s c o n tin g e n c y t a b l e s w ere c o n s tr u c te d t o com pare s c a l e s c o r e s t o o th e r f a c t o r s t h a t a p p e a re d t o b e a p p r o p r i a t e. A l i s t o f th e f a c t o r s t e s t e d a re i n C h a p te r I I I. I n te r v ie w s w ith fa rm e rs s u g g e s te d t h a t th e s e f a c t o r s may a f f e c t th e f a r m e r 's a t t i t u d e s. T a b le I I I i s an exam ple o f a c o n tin g e n c y t a b l e. I n t h i s t a b l e th e s c a l e s c o r e s a p p e a r on one s id e and 'farm s i z e a p p e a rs on th e to p. The t a b l e th e n shows- how many tim e s th e s c a l e s c o re 0-4 was a s s o c ia te d w ith e a c h fa rm s i z e g ro u p. F o r exam ple,, s c a l e s c o re 0-4 was a s s o c ia te d w ith th e group u n d e r 600 c ro p a c r e s 29 tim e s, w ith th e 600-1,0 9 9 group 24 tim e s, w ith th e 1, 100-1,3 9 9 g roup 8 tim e s, and w ith th e 1, ,4 9 9 g ro u p 20 tim e s.