Demands and Success Factors for a Sustainable Energy System

Transcription

1 Demands and Success Factors for a Sustainable Energy System Dr. Dirk Aßmann, Wuppertal Institute Global Solar Economy - a Chance for Africa? Loccum, May 26-28, 2003

2 Fields of Action

3 Energy and its interconnections Gender aspects Water... Trade Poverty Political structures Population Nutrition Education Health

4 Carbon Emission Reduction Targets Industrialized Countries - 80 % Developing Countries + 70 % World - 50 % Source: IPCC 1992, Enquete-Kommission 1995

5 Why talk about Social costs? In market economies the structure and decisions of the energy system are determined by market prices and politics If we find substantial cost elements not reflected in market prices, decision makers get wrong signals and will take wrong decisions The larger the share of costs not reflected in the prices of any one energy technology, the more will be over invested in such technology As these costs not reflected in prices typically are environmental or health costs, this has lead to non sustainable energy use in the past

6 What are Social costs? Definition: Social costs arise when any costs of production or consumption are passed on to third parties, like future generations or society at large. Examples of social costs are: man-made climate change and its resulting damages forest damages due to acid rain health damages from major nuclear reactor accidents

7 Total cost estimation Since the early 1990s it has become a standard to demand the internalisation of such costs:

8 The Sustainability Triangle Internalisation Source: Bob Watson (IPCC), 2001, Marrakech

9 Air pollution in general causes damages to... human health (morbidity and mortality) soils and plants (e.g. losses in yields) buildings, structural metals and art work social assets (e.g. loss in recreation areas) with other words: high costs!

10 Case study: Indonesian Health Costs Comparison between - the additional costs of air protection and - the doing nothing health costs for Jakarta. (World Bank 1994) These doing nothing health costs mainly include: - avoidable mortalities - treatment of diseases - lost working days Not considered: - the whole set of hazardous air pollutants - long-term damages to natural ecosystems etc. - health costs in other cities of Jawa (Bandung, Surabaya...) Source: World Bank, 1991

11 Cost comparison for Indonesia (World Bank 1994) Year Additional cost for Health cost for Jakarta only, ERC, $ 10 6 /yr (1989) $ 10 6 /yr(1990) ,070 1, ,430 1, ,570 2, ,300 4, ,460 (5,340) Source: World Bank, 1991

12 External Costs Germany - Upper Estimates Categories of social costs analyzed so far: 1. Environmental damages like: - Forest damages (flora) - Materials damaged (like buildings) - Global climate change (short-term damage and mitigation cost) 2. Human health damages 3. Structural macroeconomic effects 4. Intertemporal misallocation of resources 5. Subsidies without adequate return Categories of social costs insufficiently analyzed so far: 1. Long term damages of global warming 2. Full costs of nuclear accidents 3. Damages due to intermediate production 4. Damages presently unknown Source: Hohmeyer 1988 und 2002

13 External Costs Germany 35 1 Eurocent = 1 US Cent Climate change Air pollution Total Lignite min Lignite max Hard coal min Hard coal max Gas min Gas max Fuel oil min Fuel oil max Source: Hohmeyer 2002

14 External Costs Germany - Upper Estimates Eurocent = 1 US Cent Lignite max Hard coal max Gas max Fuel oil max Hydro max Wind max PV max Biomass max 0 Total Source: Hohmeyer 2002

15 Impact of first rough internalisation on wind energy in Germany Renewable energy law 6000 MW MW programme Building privilege 2000 Feed law Source: BWE 2001

16 Impacts on Jobs More than 140,000 employees are due to renewable energy in Germany Job intensities: RE: 1 per 50,000 Euro GDP Fossil/nuclear: 1 per 130 to 150,000 Euro GDP

17 First conclusions The net external cost avoided by the use of renewable energy sources in Germany are still very substantial (mean value) Small hydro: Euro Cent/kWh Wind: Euro Cent/kWh PV: Euro Cent/kWh Biomass: Euro Cent/kWh This is three to four times the substituted internal costs of conventional electricity generation replaced (about 3 Euro Cent/kWh) Renewables should be paid Euro Cent/kWh feed into the public grid in Germany Source: Hohmeyer 2002

18 Fields of Action Technological Options Demand-Side Efficiency Supply-Side Efficiency Renewable Energy Utilisation Transportation: Innovative Fuels Large Scale Refurbishment Zero-Emissions Housing Estate Power Saving Modernisation of Power Plants Extension/Modernisation of District Heating Distributed CHP Wind Energy Biomass Geothermal Hydro Power Natural Gas Biofuels Hydrogen Energy Efficiency Distributed CHPC Solar Energy Intersectoral Approach: New Energy Services, Qualification, Setting Up Premium, R&D, Centres of Excellence, Intersectoral Networks, Climate-Protection/Energy-Agencies

19 Specific Electricity Consumption in OECD 1995 average Best available techn.

20 Motor-pump system: the conventional and...

21 ... the Factor 4 version

22 Pyramid of Potentials: Insulation of Old Buildings in Germany Potentials 1999 (Alte Bundesländer)- Heating demand PJ (ABL) ErwartetesEinsparpotential(in Zeitraum bis 2050) Expectations Refurb.rate 1,2 %/a PJ/16 % Refurb.rate 2 %/a PJ/42 % Economical Potential Actual refurbishment standard: for2 Cent/kWh- 822 PJ/50 % for4cent/kwh- 872 PJ/53 % TechnicalPotential TheoreticPotential Actualstandard PJ /56 % Passivhouse standard PJ /85 %

23 Energy Efficiency Standards for New Buildings

24 Energy Efficiency in Housing: Passive Houses

25 Integrated Assessment of Future Technologies

26 Identificated Key Technologies and System Solutions Key Schlüsseltechnologien technologies System Systemlösungen solutions Clean Coal Technologien Clean Coal dezentrale Small CHP Kraft-Wärme-Kopplung (micro turbine, (Mikrogasturbine, stationäre Brennstoffzelle) Fuel Cells) Conc. Solar Power Solarthermische Kraftwerke dezentrale Energiesysteme (Mikronetze) Decentralisation Micro Inselsysteme grids Windenergie Wind (insbes. offshore Off-Shore) Photovoltaik Photovoltaics (inbes. Gebäudeintegration) Biomassevergasung (fest) Biomassgasification Hot Dry Rock Geothermie (HotDryRock) Small electr. motors kleine Elektromotoren (<1kW) LEDs LED Beleuchtung neue New Treibstoffe fuels (H (insbes. H2 und Methanol) 2 ) Wohnhaus Innovative der Zukunft residential (insbes. Passivhaus mit regenerativer houses (RE/EE) Wärmeversorgung) Sustainable offices Zukunftsfähige Bürogebäude (inkl. (RE/EE/Management Energieversorgung, Haustechnik und Energiemanagement) etc.) Wuppertal Institut für Klima Umwelt Energie, 2001

27 Usual form of activities (in the beginning of market development) woodresidues Heat demand Money Technical know how! Nothing happens! Logistical competence

28 Co-ordinated form Heat demand woodresidues Network Money Technical know how Logistical competence

29 Co-ordinated form... Know-how Logistics... Wood resid. Heat demand further partners Money => Added value by using synergies

30 The networker: Energy Agency Since 1987 more than 20 energy agencies have been established in Germany. We know two types of agencies: - M&I agencies: motivation, information, mediation, networking, qualification, initial advising (mainly indepedent and cost free) - C&G agencies: own planning, financing and operation of projects and plants with the purpose of profit

31 Components of technology Techniques Organisation - Management - Infrastructure - Controlling - Maintenance Machines - Equipment -... Products - Properties - Quality -... Knowledge - Education - Science - Experiences - skills -...

32 The pillars of technological competence Interaction and networks Innovation capability on the enterprise level Legal framework Educational system Balance of power Technology oriented institutions! Thinking in systems!

33 Energy Demand in the Building Sector in Germany Mio. tons CO2 (equivalent) per year Development in the business-as-usual case Playing field for politics in Germany 54% economic potential 71% technical potential Development by using most efficiency potentials

34 Socio-economic aspects of Mittelhessen 15 to 20 % unemployment rate Low incomes (compared to German average) Decline of agricultural business High energy import dependency Hugh restructuring demand in the building sector Increasing consumption of the environment/nature Rising emissions Very bad socio-economic situation Climate protection measures necessary

35 Some good conditions in Mittelhessen Good basis of technical institutions and innovative enterprises Stakeholder are interested in climate protection and new business options High energy (wood) resources Our project was directly linked to the local ministry of economy Existing legal framework on federal and state level Good know-how of the stakeholder

36 Strategy of the project First step: Deep analyses of local conditions and potentials Initiation of new networks Single impulses Dynamic development Themes: Cogeneration Biomass Building restructuring Contracting Organisational frame

37 Cogen/Biomass activities Description of techniques Potential assessment Showing reference-projects Preliminary analysis of possible projects Concrete drawing of business logistics Regional cross sectoral approaches Handbook From theory to practice

38 Cogen/Biomass strategy behind learning from good examples Transfer of knowledge Climate protection and energy agency Moderation and meditation Networks of important stakeholders Business logistics Development of possible projects

39 Tasks of the regional energy agency Contents and topics day-by-day job Heat insulation for old-/new building Energy conservation in SMEs Initial advice Know how transfer Co-ordination Renewable energies Co- and Trigeneration Financing by: Local government Local enterprises and utilities European Union Policy advising Information transfer Qualification

40 Case Study Cuba: Combination of Wind Energy and Energy Efficient Refrigerators and Lighting Wind Energy Feed-In Tariff International Co-operation Refrigerators, Replacement Lighting, Refurbishment Export Possibilities of Oil Integrated Action Production Capacities (in Long-Run) Environmental Impacts (Sulfur Content of Oil) Subsidies for Electricity in Households Electricity Consumption in Households Innovation Capability of Cuba! Positive Macro-Economic Impacts!

41 Innovative Street Lighting in Amman, Jordan Status Quo, 1999 Possible Measures Savings High Pressure Mercury 125 W Luminaries: 75 % HPM 250 W Lum.: 3 % High Pressure Sodium 250 W Luminaries: 18 % Others: 4 % Lamp Replacement 1: HSE Special Type Lamp Replacement 2: HSE Normal Type + Ignitor About 10 % - 20 % About 40 % - 60 % Demand Driven Operation About 40 % - 50 % Decentral Power Control About 30 % - 50 % Total Electricity Consumption 1998: 60 GWh/a Total Investment Costs: 5,5 Million JD Total Annual Savings: 1,4 Million JD Payback Time: 3.8 years

42 Case Study Solar & Save Project Energy Efficiency + Renewable Energy in High Schools Installation of a 40 kw photovoltaic system Module area: approx. 400 m 2 Electricity production: approx. 30,000 kwh/a Largest solar power plant in the region Modernisation of the lighting installation Installation of efficient lights with high frequency ballasts and lighting control depending on daylight Output savings: 50 kw Electricity savings: ca. 38,000 kwh/a Renewal of circulation pumps and ventilation systems Electricity savings: 30,000 kwh/a Installation of a district heating power station electrical output: 50 kw Further minor measures

43 Integrated Project and Joint Venture: Administrative Building District 22, Tehran, Iran Source: Abbaspour 2003

44 A success story: Labeling Transparency works!!! Energy Manufacturer Model More efficient Less efficient A B C D E F G Energy consumption kwh/year (Based on standard test results for 24h) Actual consumption will depend on how the appliance is used and where it is located Fresh food volume I Frozen food volume I Logo ABC 123 A Noise (db(a)re 1 pw) Further information is contained in product brochures 40 Norm EN 153 May 1990 Refrigerator Label Directive 94/2/EC

45 Energy Label on European Appliances 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% A B C D E F G More Efficient Energy label class EU Market 1999 EU Market 1996 EU Market 1992 Less Efficient Source: DENA 2003

46 The role of local knowledge Wind Catchers (Wind Towers)- Yazd (Iran) 10,000 kwh,consumption of evaporative cooler Source: Bahadori 2003

47 Solar Water Heater in Iran Supplying 1000 units of Solar Water Heaters (SWHs) Year-2001 Storage: Liters Outlet temp. :60 o Price:540 $ 70% Subsidies by IFCO Year-2002 Supply 10,000 units of SWHs Storage: Liters >22% Performance Outlet temp. :80 o > 33% Price:420 $ < 22% 60% Subsidies < 14% Year-2003 Supply 200,000 units of SWHs Storage: Liter > 6% Price subsidies time Outlet temp. :80 o Price:350 $ < 16% 50% Subsidies < 16% Source: Kashe 2003

48 Strategic approach for energy development

49 Summary Internalisation of external costs is essential (in fact, fossil fuels are more cost-intensive) RE and EE must be seen as two parts of the same game RE/EE create jobs (positive net effects) Do not only think in techniques but also in institutional aspects, balances of power, capacities, legal conditions, financing, networks etc. Use local knowledge Combine RE and EE approaches for getting better pay-back RE are not necessarily better than other technologies - it depends on how the business will be designed

50 Final conclusion Market prices must show the ecological and social truth Think in integrated systems, but keep projects as simple as possible Make RE/EE an issue and a business

51 Thank you very much for your attention!