Chris Hellinga. Scientific Advisor Delft Energy Initiative. Present and future energy use and supply in the Netherlands. Permanent under construction

Transcription

1 Present and future energy use and supply in the Netherlands Permanent under construction Chris Hellinga Scientific Advisor Delft Energy Initiative 1

2 KIVI NIRIA 1. Report ( ): Smart Energy Mix 2. Booklet 2010 : De energievoorziening van Nederland. Vandaag (en morgen)? 3. Future The 3 scenario model TU Delft Delft Energy Initiative Green Campus Energy Club 2

3 An impression of Dutch full scale use of solar & wind energy and biomass Current energy use: how much, for what? Trends until 2050 Growth Energy savings System changes Energy needs in 2050 Share of electricity? Primary supply with solar PV, wind turbines, biomass. 3

4 10 year TUD commitment for 4 societal themes Energy Health Infrastructures & Mobility Environment 4

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6 uranium heat + biomass coal Energy use by sector 2008 products (16%) industry - products % 16 natural gas built environment 20 energy end users (49%) national transportation industry energy use Transport (32%) 2. Industry (29%) 3. Built environment (20%) 4. Conversion losses(16%) 5. Agriculture / greenhouses (3%) mineral oil international aviation and Shipping (20%) agriculture international aviation and shipping 3 20 conversion Losses (16%) conversion losses 16 electricity 100 6

7 Industry - products Future energy demand; e.g. built environment built environment % energy carrier remaining fossil heat + biomass electricity function equipment function equipment toepassing energy carrier inzet elektricity national transportation industry energy use agriculture international aviation and shipping conversion losses space heating and domestic hot water (DHW) natural gas (<70 C) 39 kwh/p/d growth space heating and DWH Isolatie Insulation (-50% heating) warmte) 28 kwh/p/d savings heat pumps, geothermal, waste heat (no gas) Insulation 13 kwh/p/d system changes 7

8 Most important assumptions Energy demand (PJ) + 0,68% / year Growth +0,4% per year (=+18% in 2050) Savings Heat demand built env. -50% Internal combustion engines -20% Agriculture -25% Industry -25% System changes Low value heat (<70C) Light road transport : electric (heat pumps, geothermal and waste heat) : elektric 8

9 COP (Coefficient of Performance) COP = Electricity (kwh) delivered thermal energy used electric energy Heat (kwh) We assume: Low value heat supply: - 80% heat pumps (COP =3) - 20% geothermal/waste heat (COP=10) => Average COP = 4,4 Heat pump COP ~ 3-4 Geothermal heat COP ~ (Industral) waste heat COP : high 9

10 Transportation by segment Suited for electric transportation 17 kwh/p/d = 60% of nationial transport energy = 25% of total transport energy 10

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12 For all sectors 12

13 Consequences for the energy demand More energy functions Savings System changes Industry: -25% Built environment Heat pumps/geo -50% heat/m2 Electric transp. International combustion engines -20% (biomass conversion; CCS) 12

14 Future energy sources: Electricity Wind 25% of year average demand Solar-PV in the summer the rest The rest (transportation/feedstock for chemical industry) Biomass Wind: Factor 2 Zon: Factor 10 Monthly capacity factor of wind turbines in Germany (source: ISET Wind Energy Measurement Network (2004) Monthly solar intensityin London and Edinburgh (source: David MacKay, 2008) => a winter gap (18%). Here: fossil (+CCS)/nuclear 13

15 Assumption for sources used in

16 Electricity use Conversion losses + CCS Fossil 10% Electricity Mineral oil Natural gas (to end users) Rest shipping/ aviation Feed stock industry 40% Electricity "Biomass" Losses 4145 PJ = 193 kwh/p/d 3474 PJ = 160 kwh/p/d Electricity 2050 In absolute numbers: 3* the current use of which: 30% for biomass conversion Wind + solar-pv = 82% Seasonal fluctuation:18% from fossil/nuclear (16 GW) 16 GW = 75% of our current central e-power generation capacity. (nuclear would do better: no CCS); 16

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18 Percents of the estimated electricity use in 2050 (380TWh/year = 1360 PJ/year = 63 kwh/p/d) 18

19 What does storage mean? 18% = 250 PJ winter gap 1382 PJ Electricity "Biomass" Losses Our major electricity storage solutions will come from chemicals, not from water or batteries. => No power plants, We but will energy have to focus storage on seasons (i.e. 18% fluctuations more (NW wind Europe turbines +..). + solar PV ) Solutions determine which challenges remain for short term fluctuations. Water elevation: 1 m3, at 1 m (average) height = J 1.1 km water above Dutch soil ( km 2 )) These considerations have also major impacts in the thinking for future energy generation such as the contribution of CSP. Hydrogen: 1 kg = 120 MJ (=14 l (liquid) = l water/1 m h = 3 l diesel) 10 m height * 3 km Batteries in cars: 7 million passenger cars in NL Future: 80 kwh/car? (=400 km travel distance) 40 kwh on the average for buffering? => 1 PJ in total 0,4% of winter gap 25% of here estimated daily 2050 electricity use (round numbers, no conversion losses for storage and electricity production) 19

20 Conclusions The intake of energy carriers in the Dutch economy is twice as high as the energy use of end users In 2050 we might use three times as much electricity as in This is probably only 50% of our energy needs Year average electricity demand can sustainably be generated on Dutch surface (Seasonal) fluctuations have great impact on our energy system. Energy storage, smart grids, (international) exchange are important issues. Biomass will become important (transport fuels, feedstock). To what extent depends on the development of other solutions (direct conversion of sunlight to fuels, nuclear ship propulsion,?) International dependency will remain 20

21 To think about.. Energy savings are extremely important. 21

22 Innovatie met toegevoegde waarde Vergroening chemische industrie Building blocks bestaande Chemie BIOMASSA Bioraffinage zetmeel / suiker / lignocellulose Vergassing Fermentatie en andere processen Vergisting Aerobic An-aerobic Funct. melkzuur moleculen succinic azijnzuur acid andere Iso-butanol ethanol methaan SNG glycerol Iso-butyleen Ethyleen Paraxyleen Reforming Propyleen plastics, verdikkingsmiddelen concerveermid. plastics synthet. polymeren lijm PET-flessen Plastics, surfactants, wasmiddelen Plastics, tapijt kunstmest methanol Ton Runneboom KVIV Antwerpen Feb =80% chemische industrie 22

23 Vergroening via ARG-etheenpijpleiding Ton Runneboom KVIV Antwerpen Feb

24 The European Bulk Chemical industry needs Bio- Ethylene 24