June, High Speed Infrastructures the Spanish case
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1 June, 2011 High Speed Infrastructures the Spanish case
2 1. Cost of operation of the HSL Madrid-Barcelona 2. Impact of HSL on Air Travel. Aircraft vs Train 3. PPP in HSL in Spain 4. Other topics
3 Data comparison: California / Spain 3
4 Similarity between corridors San Francisco Los Angeles (California) SAN FRANCISCO San Jose SFO Airport Gilroy Merced Fresno Madrid Barcelona (Spain) Zaragoza Lleida P. BARCELONA Bakersfield Sylmar Palmdale Guadalajara Calatayud Camp de Tarragona Burkbank LOS ANGELES MADRID Max. Speed: 220 mph Max. Speed: 218 mph Travel time: 2h:40 Travel time: 2h:38 Distance: 347 miles Distance: 390 miles 4
5 Economic result of HSL Madrid Barcelona Income/Expenses 400 I3 Income 300 I2 M3 Margin 200 E3 Expenses 100 I1 E2 Expenses Maintenance 0 E1 Pax/ year Nº Passenger Income Expenses Margin Margin% pax/year 70M 43,8 M 26,2 M 37% pax/year 300M 158,5 M 141,5 M 47% pax/year 400M 193,2 M 206,8 M 52% Million M 5
6 Impact of High Speed Railway on air travel: the Spanish case
7 Impact of High Speed Railway on Air Travel LEFT CORNER Weighting 70 tons Record of 850 km/h Spanish long-distance travel-time champion RIGHT CORNER Weighting 400 tons Record of 300 km/h (and 1 K.O in Seville, 1992) Challenger IMPACT: The Past: Madrid-Seville The Present: Madrid-Barcelona The Future: Spanish HSR Corridors 7
8 The past: Madrid-Seville Travel distance: 500 Km Travel time (door to door): 2,3 hours (Air Travel vs Rail Travel) HSR Air Travel Passengers (thousands) HSR start-up (april 1992) Year 8
9 The past: Madrid-Seville Relative Modal Split air/ rail: from 75/25 to 20/80 Relative market share Air/HSR : European air transport liberalisation 2004-on: low-cost airlines impact on Spanish domestic traffic (mainland) NO EFFECT on relative modal split 9
10 The past: Madrid-Seville Total modal split Market share SUPPLY CONDITIONS-2007 HSR: 20 daily freq 65 EUR Estimated HSR induced demand (new traffic): 45% Air: 8 daily freq 27 EUR (restricted) 235 EUR (full flexible) % Connecting Passengers: 75% Change in Modal Split 1990 vs1994 Air: 39% vs 13% (-67%) Bus: 11% vs 6% (-45%) Private Car: 36% vs 31% (-14%) Railway: 14% vs 50% (+257%) 10
11 The present: Madrid-Barcelona Travel distance: 650 km Travel time (door-to-door): 2,5 hours (Air Travel vs Rail Travel) Relative market share Air/HSR 11
12 The present: Madrid-Barcelona HSR (start-up estimations, 2008) Daily Freq: 25 services / direction Price (return ticket): EUR Air (actual data, 2007) Daily freq: 80 services /direction Price (return ticket): 65 EUR (restricted)- 235 EUR (flexible) Features Very mature market: World busiest air route (971 flights/ week), 4 operators (1 low-cost since 2004). Fast Passenger Processing:Iberia non-reservation service (Air shuttle). 66% passengers do not check-in (less processing time at origin and destination airports). Iberia Air Shuttle: 82% 61% business traffic (time-sensitive) Iberia Air Shuttle: 82% Iberia Air Shuttle: 33% market share (20 points lost in six years due to incrasing competition) Iberia non-air Shuttle: 18% market share (unaffected througout the years: connections at Madrid) 12
13 The present: Madrid-Barcelona COMPETITION CONDITIONS Fares can be adapted both for HSR and Air Travel, so they WILL NOT BE the driver of the relative modal split Drivers are: 1) Total Travel Time / Direct Frequencies and 2) Personal Preferences (confort, fear of flying ) HSR Induced Demand (new travellers) will affect modal split, but not air travel demand) 13
14 The future: Spanish HSR Corridors Polulation distribution in mainland Spain optimal for transport network (hub&aspoke) Average stage lenght centre-periphery: km, optimal for HSR service competition HSR Corridors Layout Corredor Norte-Noroeste Corredor Noreste 500 km POPULATION DENSITY (INHABITANTS/ KM 2 ) Corredor Extremadura-Portugal < > 500 Corredor Andalucia Corredor Levante MAIN CORRIDORS Eje Mediterraneo 14
15 The future: Spanish HS Corridors 15
16 Conclusions The Past: Madrid-Seville HSR (1992) had a deep impact on air travel, leaving for air travel mainly connecting traffic to/ from destinations beyond Madrid. The Present: Madrid-Barcelona HSR (2008) sees a completely different picture for its competitor: a very mature air travel market, which has already undergone the liberalisation of the industry, with competitive fares and service level. Relative modal split has an important degree of uncertainty. The Future: The completion of the Spanish HSR network will have an overall impact on airport traffic of a 8,1% annual traffic loss for Mainland Spanish airports, if competitive HSR frequencies can be set. This loss will be phased according to HSR corridors start-up dates. 16
17 Recent High Speed projects Project Rio de Janeiro-Sao Paolo- Campinas High Speed Train Country Starting investment (Mill.) Subvenciones Públicas o Pago Directo (Mill.) Brazil 19,870 USD 0 USD 0% Porcentaje de Fondos Públicos TP-Ferro (Perpignan-Figueres) Spain 1,085 EUR 626 EUR 58% Tampa-Orlando High Speed Train United States 2,700 USD 2,200 USD 81% Tours-Burdeos High Speed Train France 7,800 EUR 4,446 EUR 57% Caia-Poceirao High Speed Line Portugal 1,360 EUR 694 EUR 51% Meca-Medina High Speed Train. Stage 1 Infrastructure Saudi Arabia 1,870 USD 1,879 USD 100% Meca-Medina High Speed Train. Stage 2 CAPEX Superestrucrure, Systemas and Rolling Stock Saudi Arabia 3,500 EUR 3,500 EUR 100% Madrid-Valencia High Speed Line Spain 6,200 EUR 0 EUR 100% 17
18 Heading towards: PEIT
19 Heading towards: PEIT ,776 km 2,120 km 19
20 Thank you for your attention
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