Economic aspects of inter-modality. SEE WORKSHOP EEC, December 5 th 2005
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1 Economic aspects of inter-modality SEE WORKSHOP EEC, December 5 th 2005
2 What is inter-modality? The use of different and coordinated modes of transports for one trip Speed train Alternative to short-haul flights Airport Central multimodal interchange node Airlines Local trains Airport local access Public buses Airport local access 2
3 Why inter-modality? PROFIT PERSPECTIVES AIRSIDE CONGESTION LANDSIDE CONGESTION INTER-MODALITY ENVIRONMENT AIRPORTS (resp. AIRLINES) COMPETITION 3
4 Objectives of the study presented To analyse inter-modality potential evolution By identifying driving factors (social, economic and environmental) And analysing their interaction To derive scenarios of inter-modality development To apply scenarios on case studies France Portugal 4
5 Society, Economic & Env. variables Key factor World economy Mobility Resulting factor Oil prices World geopolitics Group 1 Development of new Technologies outside transport Passenger demand on leisure markets Group 4 Freight transport demand Passenger demand on business markets Group 2 Transport policies Transport Infrastructure development Environmental and sustainable development concerns Group 3 Traffic Congestion Group 7 Operators strategies Transport technology Multimodal cooperation Multimodal competition Unimodal competition Group 6 Group 5 5
6 Inter-modality scenarios Scenario A: Continuation of the current instability situation Continuation of the globalisation process & economic growth Increasing inequalities Scenario B: Evolution towards a strong instability situation Growing international tensions & economic stagnation Increasing inequalities Scenario C: Global stability situation Continuation of the globalisation process & economic growth Social policies that enable a more equal distribution of revenues 6
7 7 Scenarios assumptions Freight demand Passenger demand Oil prices International tensions Env. concerns Economic growth level Scenario Strong C Low B A2 Strong A1 Leisure Business
8 Analysis of inter-modality potential development Scenario Level of use of air / HST intermodal agreements on passengers markets Level of use of air / rail intermodal agreements for airport access Level of use of air / bus intermodal agreements for airport access Level of use of air / rail intermodal agreements on freight markets Level of use of air / road intermodal agreements on freight markets A1 A2 B C 8
9 Scenarios: main conclusions Economic growth is not the only variable impacting inter-modality development Importance of environmental concerns Consequences of the globalisation process (Economic growth but with risks of unequal wealth distribution): Mixed effects on multimodal cooperation for passenger transport Positive effects on freight transport growth 9
10 Case study: France Current inter-modal infrastructure: Paris CDG & Lyon Saint Exupéry airport connected to the high speed rail network RER B at Paris CDG and Orlyval at Paris Orly provide local rail accesses to the airport Future inter-modal infrastructure projects: Airport local access: CDG Express, LESLYS (Lyon) Speed rail links to airports: TGV Est, TGV Ouest, TGV Toulouse-Bordeaux (Sud-Ouest), TGV Interconnection station at Orly, TGV Rhin-Rhone, TGV PACA (Côte d Azur), Freight express TGV 10
11 Inter-modality in France today... Despite inter-modal infrastructure, few intermodal agreements today: TGV Air Agreement with Thalys International Still fewer (short haul) air routes abandonned due to inter-modal agreements or competition Only the Brussels-Paris route Similar situation for core European countries 11
12 ... And tomorrow (1/2) Inter-modal agreements Scenario New Airport Infra Transport Infrastructure TGV Infra Airport local access Infra Development of intermodal agreements for passengers transport Air / TGV Air / rail for airport local access Air / bus for airport local access Development of inter-modal agreements for freight transport Air / rail Air / road A1 New airports: Nantes, Toulouse TGVs Est, Rhin-Rhône, Côte d azur, Ouest, Sud- Ouest, Orly interconnection, CDG Freight CDG Express Leslys (Lyon) A2 New airports: Nantes, Toulouse TGV Est CDG Express Leslys (Lyon) Nantes Toulouse B None TGV Est Leslys (Lyon) C None TGVs Est, Rhin-Rhône, Côte d azur, Ouest, Sud- Ouest, Orly interconnection, CDG Freight CDG Express Leslys (Lyon) 12
13 ... And tomorrow (2/2) New inter-modal infrastructures could not be sufficient for developing airport inter-modality Incentives should depend on: Airport congestion level Environmental pressure Unimodal competition level Multimodal competition level Transport policies at European/national level 13
14 Case study: Portugal Current infrastructure: 3 main airports: Lisbon, Porto, Faro Old rail infrastructure not connected with airports Planned future infrastructure development: HST Porto airport - Vigo HST Lisbon airport - Porto airport HST Lisbon - Madrid New Lisbon airport 14
15 The priority: Infrastructure The priority: Economic development of Portugal in the Iberian Peninsula and European context Current inter-modality is almost inexistant Railway (high speed) infrastructures investments already adopted, whatever the economic scenario considered Similar situation for eastern european countries 15
16 ... Then intermodality (1/2) Inter-modal agreements Scenario New Airport Infra Transport Infrastructure TGV Infra Airport local access Infra Development of intermodal agreements for passengers transport Air / TGV Air / rail for airport local access Air / bus for airport local access Development of inter-modal agreements for freight transport Air / rail Air / road A1 New airport: Lisbon Lisbon-Porto Porto-Vigo Aveiro-Salamanca Lisbon-Madrid Evora-Faro-Huelva Porto Lisbon Mode -rate A2 New airport: Lisbon Lisbon-Porto Porto-Vigo Lisbon-Madrid Porto Lisbon B None Lisbon-Porto Porto-Vigo Lisbon-Madrid Porto C None Lisbon-Porto Porto-Vigo Aveiro-Salamanca Lisbon-Madrid Evora-Faro-Huelva Porto Lisbon 16
17 ... Then intermodality (2/2) Intermodality level will depend on market conditions For very short haul domestic connections (Lisbon-Porto) abandon of air routes and intermodal agreements for feeding airports er if high level of congestion at airports speed rail should compete with air on short-haul connections (between Portugal and Spain) 17
18 Conclusion Future development of airport intermodality should depend on: Intermodal infrastructure but not only Market conditions Capacity constraints Political factors Impact of intermodality on air traffic: Few examples so far But we are only in the first stages 18
19 Study continuation: MODAIR project Analysis of: Actors expectations towards inter-modality Economic instruments, political and administrative measures that are likely to create favourable market conditions for airport inter- modality development. The impact of inter-modality on airport catchment area Elaboration of: Airport inter-modality indicators aiming at measuring inter-modality levels at airports A tool (software) displaying airport inter-modality level and the impacts of inter-modality improvements on the catchment area 19
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