Gröna tåget. Market and services. Ph.D. Oskar Fröidh August 8,

Transcription

1 Gröna tåget Market and services Ph.D. Oskar Fröidh August 8,

2 High ticket prices, not so fast services, environment Marknadsandel tåg 100 % Tokyo Nagoya Paris Bryssel Madrid Zaragoza Paris Lyon Madrid Sevilla Tokyo Osaka 80 % Paris Clermant Ferrand New York Washington 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % 0 Stockholm Göteborg 1996 Frankfurt München Hamburg Frankfurt Paris London Paris Nimes Paris Marseille 1990 Madrid Malaga Paris Strasbourg London Edinburgh Madrid Barcelona London Glasgow Paris Nice Restid tåg (timmar) Rail-air market Market shares for train as a function of train travelling times Competition With other modes: Car, Air (low-cost carriers), Coach On tracks: Rolling stock as a competition factor Travelling times the most important factor, fares, frequency, comfort and service important as well 2

3 Market and services Aim: To propose an attractive high-speed train concept as a specification of requirements based on business economics and cost-benefit calculations Note; Operators and manufacturers design the train in detail according to their own specifications 3

4 Why a new train concept? Gröna tåget is a high-speed train concept intended for reliable service on new and upgraded lines with mixed traffic (in Scandinavia). Gröna tåget enables Improved service supply (travelling times, frequency, fares, comfort) Improved economics of long-distance and fast regional rail operations New high-speed lines (320 km/h) when Increased accessibility (very short travelling times) is desired Lack of capacity on existing network. Releases capacity for increased freight and regional services on existing lines 4

5 Effects of Gröna tåget s most important market qualities Shorter travelling times Increased frequency Lower fares Higher top speed (250 km/h or more) Tilting capability Wide body (3+2 seating) Shorter trainsets, flexible train length Better supply Lower costs and increased train travel demand gives better economy (+increased cost-benefit ratio) 5

6 Possible travelling times by Gröna tåget Travelling times Shortest Gröna Infra investment Market today tåget except signalling* effect Western main line Some (capacity, Stockholm-Gothenburg level crossings, Travellers Non-stop (455 km) 2:45 2:30 catenary) from air Southern main line New high-speed link Stockholm-Malmö (Ostlänken, 150 km) Travellers 2 stops (617 km) 4:10 3:20 Some more (see above) from air Svealand line Eskilstuna-Stockholm Increased 5 stops (115 km) 1:00 0:55 Some (capacity) commuting Botnia line Travellers from Stockholm-Umeå car on inter- 10 stops (737 km) (2011: 5:40) 5:05 Some (capacity) mediate dist. * All lines need new signalling and traffic control systems (ETCS/ERTMS) if speed is increased above 200 km/h 6

7 Example of train length: Trainset with 310 seats GTW: Gröna tåget, Wide body 27 m 107 m GTC: Gröna tåget, Continental body width 27 m 133 m X 2000, Continental+ body width 25 m 165 m 7

8 Wide body or Continental body width Example of a possible layout of leading car (2:nd class) Toalett Bagage Bagage 3,27 m Förarhytt Toalett Bag 26,0 m GTW Wide body (3+2 seating): 90 seats (+22 %) Toalett Bagage Bagage 2,67 m Förarhytt Toalett Bagage GTC Continental body width (2+2 seating): 74 seats 26,0 m 8

9 Total cost of wide bodied and continental bodied train widths Total costs per seat-km 0,05 0,045 0,04 Euro ( ) per seat-km 0,035 0,03 0,025 0,02 0,015 0,01 0,005 GTC GTW Num ber of passenge rs per train Wide bodied trains have 10-20% lower total cost than continental body width trains Compared to X 2000: 20-35% lower cost Key: Space utilisation 9

10 Pros of short trainsets Shorter trainsets can improve economy to Increase frequency Run services at times with low demand Run direct connections without change - increases attractiveness and travel demand. Shorter trainsets = increased flexibility, higher load factor (EMU s multipled at peak demand) Entimmestrafik med långa tågsätt (15 turer) Långt tågsätt med anslutning (byte) Halvtimmestrafik med korta tågsätt (30 turer) Ger 25 % fler resenärer än entimmestrafik Entimmestrafik samt sex insatståg (21 turer) Ger 15 % fler resenärer än entimmestrafik Korta tågsätt med direktförbindelse Ger 20 % fler resenärer jmf byte Increased travel demand when service supply is improved is in general at least as important as possible cost reductions 10

11 Characteristics of the Gröna tåget train concept Short travelling times (with tilt capability) Short trainsets, flexible train length Wide body with 3+2 seating arrangement Market effects Increased train travel demand Improved economy Accessibility, cost-benefit outcome increases Less air and road trips environmental gains 11