Demand for Long Distance Travel

Transcription

1 Demand for Long Distance Travel April 2011

2 Demand for long distance travel 1 Structure of this paper 1.1 This paper is structured as follows: Section 2 sets out past trends in the demand for long distance travel; Section 3 explains how we forecast long distance travel demand; Section 4 sets out the forecast results; Section 5 explains the implications of future growth for users and transport networks, and the options to address the adverse impacts of demand growth; Section 6 discusses how High Speed 2 would affect demand growth; and, Section 7 presents conclusions. What do we mean by the demand for travel? 1.2 Demand for travel is measured in terms of trips, where a trip is a single movement by one person from one location to another. In travelling from one location to another, people will often use several different modes of transport. This is still defined as just one trip and allocated to the mode that was used to travel the longest distance. For example, someone might walk from home to a bus stop, use a bus to get to the railway station, travel by train from there and take a taxi from the station at the other end to their destination. Whilst they used four different modes of transport, this is counted as one trip; and since rail was the mode of transport they used to travel the furthest distance, the trip is described as one rail trip. 2 Historic trends in demand for travel 2.1 The Department for Transport s National Travel Survey (NTS) monitors long term trends in personal travel in Great Britain. It shows that the number of trips made by the average person across all modes has remained relatively unchanged between 1972 and 2009 (see Figure 1). Over this period however total distance travelled has grown strongly as people make longer distance trips. Although total distance travelled has levelled off in recent years (and indeed fell during the recession), the length of the average trip has continued to rise. 2.2 The slow down in growth of distance travelled is very much driven by a slow down in the growth in car travel, with people s total distance travelled by car (passenger kilometres) growing by only 9% between 1996 and This compares with rail travel where there has been an increase in passenger distance travelled of 56% since Source: 2

3 Figure 1 Number of trips, distance travelled, average trip length per person in Great Britain, all modes of transport Index 1972 = Year Number of trips Total distance travelled Average trip length Source: National Travel Survey Note: Data for successive annual years have been averaged over three years to smooth year to year variation so that the longer trends are clearer. 2.3 The differences in the trend for each mode reflect the way in which the markets have developed over time. Car travel has seen increases in fuel prices of 80% between 1998 and 2010 (around a third higher than rail fare growth over this time) and increasing congestion on the road network. Both of these factors will tend to suppress car use. It is also likely that the car market is saturating, with the majority of households now owning one or more cars and so limiting the scope for further increases in car ownership and therefore car travel demand. Rail has not faced the same constraints in terms of costs and congestion. 2.4 The market for long distance travel is particularly relevant for HS2. As people become richer, they tend to value their time more highly and can afford to use faster and generally more expensive modes of travel to travel more frequently over longer distances. Table 1 illustrates the number of trips of over 100 miles people from different income groups take each year. It shows that people from the richest 20% of households are twice as likely to undertake such trips compared with the average person and over three times more likely compared with the poorest 20%. 3

4 Table 1 Annual average long distance trips per person (Great Britain) by income band (quintiles) Household income bands (average income within band) Rail Car Other modes All modes Lowest income band ( 13,584) nd band ( 19,918) rd band ( 25,699) th band ( 32,553) Highest income band ( 53,876) All households ( 29,126) Sources: Long distance (100+ miles) trips are from the NTS combined survey year ; Other modes are principally bus/coach and domestic air; household incomes by quintile are from Table 1 The effects of taxes and benefits on household incomes, 2008/09, ONS June The link between incomes and demand means that as the economy grows so does demand for long distance travel. This link is particularly strong for faster (more expensive) modes of travel such as rail and air which means that there has been more rapid growth in long distance trips (i.e. those over 100 miles) than in trips generally. 2.6 Figure 2 shows UK long distance travel by main mode (car trips of 100 miles and over, rail, air and all modes) between 1995 and Both air and rail have grown substantially. This is likely to reflect economic growth as well as improved journey times, frequency of service and reliability for rail, and lower costs of air travel. The number of air trips has declined in recent years reflecting increased security and check in time which has made air travel less attractive. The recession will also have had an impact on air demand. Rail travel has fared rather better during the recession with continued growth in trips on long distance operators and only slight falls in demand for other rail trips. This is likely to be due to continuing improvements to rail infrastructure and quality, particularly on the West Coast Main Line with improved journey times and service frequencies 2, generating new trips and attracting trips from air. Train Operating Companies have also used lower ticket prices to encourage passengers to keep travelling. 2 The first phase of the West Coast Main Line upgrade south of Manchester opened in September

5 Figure 2 Long distance trips by mode, total trips per year, Great Britain Index 1995 = GB rail trips (long distance operators) GB domestic air trips Year Air, car >100 miles, rail long distance operators All GB rail trips GB car trips (>100 miles) Sources: Office of Rail Regulation (rail trips 3 ), Civil Aviation Authority (air trips), car and all three modes trips are based on NTS trip rates, with population change from ONS. Data for successive years have been averaged over three years to smooth year to year variation. 2.8 Despite strong demand growth for both rail and air (Figure 2) the majority of long distance trips are still undertaken by car, with rail journeys constituting only 13% of such trips. This suggests that, even if car demand growth is more subdued, there is continued scope for growth in the long distance rail market. 2.9 Some commentators have suggested that the strong growth we have seen in air and rail demand is due to mode shift and not to increases in the total number of long distance trips. Others have suggested that it is due to changes in travel patterns with more trips being made to locations in city centres, for which rail is often a more attractive option than car. The view of HS2 Ltd is that the long distance travel market will continue to grow overall according to past trends and there will be particularly strong growth for rail. However constraining growth in the car or air markets would have only a limited impact on the economic case for HS2. As most people on HS2 would most likely be existing rail users, the key driver of the economic case is the growth in the number of long distance rail trips. 3 Long Distance GB Rail is approximated by growth in Long Distance Rail Operators (Cross Country, East Midlands, Great Western, East Coast, West Coast). 5

6 3 Future demand for travel 3.1 This section explains how we have forecast future demand for long distance travel. This is the growth that would occur without HS2. The forecasts are based on the past trends discussed previously. In line with the relevant HM Treasury and Department for Transport guidance these trends have been analysed in detail, relating growth between different local areas to local and national drivers of demand including economic growth and employment, transport prices and quality of service. 3.2 Despite the economic downturn there is little evidence to suggest the recent strong growth in long distance rail travel is about to stop. We therefore assume further growth in long distance rail travel but on a conservative basis that growth will stop in Our forecasts mean the average person would take 61% more long distance rail trips (over 100 miles) per year in 2043 than today. This is equivalent to about 0.5 extra long distance rail trips per person per year. 3.3 Our forecasts take account of the key drivers of growth in demand. This includes economic growth and changes in population, employment and transport costs. Some commentators have suggested that these relationships have weakened over recent years, pointing to periods where travel demand slowed while the economy continued to grow. The view of HS2 Ltd is that while the relationship between economic factors and demand for car trips may have weakened mainly because of increased road congestion and levelling off in car ownership, there is no evidence to suggest a weakening in relation to rail demand, and particularly for long distance rail. Indeed, the numbers of long distance rail journeys made continued to rise even through the recent recession. The strong growth in rail demand, demonstrated in Figure 2, is thought to be largely due to growth in people s income and there is clear scope for that to continue. 4 What growth in long distance demand have we forecast? 4.1 This section summarises our key predictions for demand for travel in 2043 compared with 2008 and places our forecasts in the context of current behaviour and past trends. 4.2 Our main interest is in long distance domestic trips, defined here as those over 100 miles. We forecast the total number of long distance road, rail and air trips per person will increase by 36%. This suggests that across all modes across the whole country, people on average would make 2.5 more long distance trips per person per year than they do today, an increase from 7.0 to 9.5 trips (see Table 2). 6

7 Table 2 Long distance trips, Great Britain, average number of trips per person per year Mode NTS HS2 Ltd forecast change Car % Rail % Air % Other % Total % Sources: 2008 data are based on results from four NTS combined survey years: , HS2 Ltd model forecasts for car, rail and air, without HS Rail demand is forecast to grow much faster than car, with 61% growth in rail trips over 100 miles per person by 2043, compared to 26% by car. However this is from a relatively low market share for rail in Even with this high rate of growth we are forecasting only 0.5 extra long distance rail trips per person per year on average. Population growth 4 will further boost travel demand such that we forecast the total number of long distance rail trips over 100 miles will grow by 95% between 2008 and 2043, or 1.9% per year on average. Table 3: Rail trip rates per person (return trips, ie, two one way trips, excluding commuting trips) Urban Areas to London % change (without HS2) Greater Manchester (Greater Manchester except Wigan) % West Midlands (West Midlands except Coventry) % Merseyside (Merseyside excluding the Wirral) % Glasgow (Glasgow City, East Dunbartonshire, West Dunbartonshire, Renfrewshire, East % Renfrewshire and North Lanarkshire) Source: HS2 Ltd model 4.4 Even within these high level trends, there are significant variations in growth around Great Britain. Generally we forecast long distance rail trips to London to have higher growth rates. For example, we forecast that the number of rail trips per person from Birmingham to London will more than double by 2043, and from Glasgow to London will almost treble by 2043 (Table 3). Such high growth rates reflect the scope for growth as well as past trends: we estimate there are currently just 0.05 return rail trips per person per year from the Greater Glasgow area to London. So a trebling of demand represents one extra return trip per year for every 10 people in Glasgow. 4 We assume 21% population growth between 2008 and 2043 based on DfT s National Trip End Model which is based on ONS population projections. 7

8 Residents of the West Midlands make greater use of rail for trips to London: a doubling of demand represents one extra trip per year for every two people in Birmingham. 4.5 Overall we forecast the total number of long distance rail trips will grow by 95% or by 1.9% per year on average in the 35 years between 2008 and This is lower than recent growth on franchised long distance rail operators which saw the total number of trips more than double in the 15 years between 1994/95 and 2009/10. We forecast that across all modes of transport, the growth rate will be slightly slower at 1.4% on average between 2008 and In summary: the average person in GB made 7.0 long distance trips in 2008, of which the majority were by car (5.4 per person, per year, on average), with fewer by rail and air (Table 2); we forecast domestic long distance trips by car, rail and air will increase by 36% per person on average by 2043 (from 7.0 to 9.5 trips per person per year on average); long distance rail trips per person on average are expected to increase at a faster rate than car trips (rail trips per person grow by 61% to 2043, compared to 26% for car, Table 2); an average West Midlands resident in 2043 would make more than double the number of rail trips between the West Midlands and London compared to 2008 (Table 3); and, we forecast that by 2043 the number of long distance rail trips over 100 miles will grow by 95% overall (paragraph 4.5). 5 Implications of future growth in long distance travel demand 5.1 Increasing demand for travel, and for long distance travel in particular, will tend to increase pressure on the transport network. We assume capacity will increase on the network in line with schemes that are currently committed. These include, consistent with the Spending Review 2010: any highways, rail and local transport schemes that the Government has committed to build before ; lengthening of some Pendolino trains on the WCML to eleven carriages from nine; 5 This does not include Evergreen 3, the proposal from Chiltern Railways to construct a new railway (including the reconstruction of an existing railway) between Bicester and Oxford, together with the construction or reconstruction of stations at Bicester Town, Islip, Water Eaton and Oxford. 8

9 continued investment in the roads programme and London transport beyond 2015, consistent with the National Transport Model, which is unlikely to be affected by the building of a new high speed line; and, investment in specific rail schemes beyond 2015 including Thameslink, Crossrail and the Intercity 125 High Speed Train (HST) fleet. How will increased demand affect the experience of travelling by train? 5.2 The previous sections set out our forecasts of demand for long distance rail travel in the UK. We forecast overall demand growth of 95% for long distance rail across the country between 2008 and 2043 (without HS2). Trips to and from London in particular will tend to grow more rapidly than the average. The net effect of this is that the number of long distance passengers on the WCML into London is forecast to increase by 127%. 5.3 The capacity on the WCML on the other hand will have benefitted only from some train lengthening and, as a result, on long distance trains leaving London across the day, the average number of seats occupied would increase from 56% in 2008 to 76% in This suggests that there would be significant crowding in peak periods, with people having to stand on many trains. 5.4 We are already seeing evidence of this today, with people having to stand on a number of long distance trains leaving Euston at popular times, and particularly on Fridays, despite the increases in capacity provided by the completion of the modernisation programme on this route. Network Rail s West Coast Main Line Route Utilisation Strategy 2010 suggests this overcrowding will worsen over the coming years, with increasing numbers of people standing on trains in peak periods through the week. How do capacity constraints affect the road network? 5.5 Congestion on major roads is forecast to increase. Roads are likely to be busier than today; delays will occur more often, and average speeds will be slower. The time taken to drive between locations will be both longer and more variable, meaning that people will be less likely to arrive at their destination on time. 5.6 This increase in congestion is unlikely to be driven by long distance trips (which account for a relatively small proportion of car traffic). However the increased congestion will affect people making long distance trips. For example, the DfT s National Transport Model forecasts 6 suggest that congestion across the English network as a whole will increase by about 54% between 2003 and This represents an average increase in time spent travelling of 9%. 6 Road Transport Forecasts 2009 Results from the Department for Transport s National Transport Model 9

10 How do capacity constraints affect domestic air travel? 5.7 Availability of take off and landing slots on runways is currently the main constraint on the number of flights that can be operated to and from airports in the South East of England, and most of the major airports, notably Heathrow, are approaching maximum capacity. There continues to be strong demand for take off and landing slots for both international and domestic flights, with the former generally getting priority as they tend to be more profitable for airlines. 5.8 One way to accommodate some growth in demand for domestic air travel would be to use larger planes. However, if this is not feasible, domestic air demand will begin to experience limits on available capacity with consequences for the availability and price of tickets: flights may sell out earlier, meaning that passengers have less choice of travel times, may be required to purchase tickets further in advance and may force increased ticket prices for the busiest flights. So what are the options? 5.9 The implications of the substantial growth forecast in underlying demand for longdistance rail travel in the UK would include a significant worsening of the journey time, reliability, quality and cost of long distance journeys One option in the face of increasing demand is to make no increase in capacity referred to as the do minimum scenario. When faced with capacity constraints travellers react in different ways. Some people will travel anyway, some travel at a different time or by a different mode and some decide not to travel at all. Doing nothing has the advantage of avoiding expenditure in new infrastructure, but it means that those who adapt will often be making compromises that may affect their quality of life, or if travelling for business, their livelihood. Places that are served by congested road and/or crowded rail services may suffer restricted economic growth as people choose to avoid travelling to them to live, work or do business Another option is to control the demand for travel by increasing the cost of travelling. On the rail and air network, this is most likely to be through increased fares. As demand grows and crowding increases rail firms might reduce the possibility of discounted tickets which would increase the overall cost of rail to help manage demand. In order to keep crowding at levels similar to today we estimate average ticket prices would need to grow at around 2% over RPI after On the road network there are no plans to introduce road pricing for cars. Changing duty on fuel and vehicle taxes can influence the demand for travelling by road. Again, while this option reduces the need for investment in expensive new infrastructure, it would mean that individuals could be worse off, and in some cases would need to sacrifice making certain trips On the rail network, constructing new transport capacity in the form of an enhanced rail infrastructure is a clear way to tackle rail crowding issues. In the following section 10

11 we consider the demand effect of the option the Government is putting forward for consultation a new High Speed Line between London and the West Midlands. 6 Impact of HS2 (London West Midlands) on the Demand for Travel 6.1 A new High Speed Rail line would reduce journey times and offer more seats on trains, enabling more people to travel. It would also free up capacity on the WCML to allow the operation of more short distance passenger and freight services. 6.2 We forecast that by 2043, without HS2, the total number of long distance rail trips over 100 miles will grow by 95% in Great Britain and by 142% between London and the West Midlands. The impact of reduced journey times and crowding because of the first phase of HS2 (between London and the West Midlands) would increase the number of long distance rail trips in 2043 across Great Britain by a further 20% on top of the underlying growth in demand and by around 37% between London and the West Midlands. Who would use HS2? 6.3 We forecast that in 2043, approximately 136,000 passengers would travel on HS2 each day (42.6 million each year) on the section between Birmingham Interchange and Old Oak Common. A further 14,000 each day would use classic compatible trains without travelling on the high speed line itself. The numbers of predicted daily trips between a selection of city centres and London with and without HS2 are shown in Table 4. These are the total number of (one way) rail trips which originate within a city council area and not the total number of passengers using the station in each city. So for example in 2043 with HS2 20,900 people would make a rail trip between zones covering Greater London and the city of Birmingham. Table 4 Average Daily Rail Demand, between London and city council areas 2008 and 2043 London city council area Demand 2008 Demand without HS Demand with HS2 (London West Midlands) 2043 London Birmingham 6,600 15,200 20,900 London Manchester 6,000 14,900 18,100 London Liverpool 2,400 5,500 7,100 London Glasgow 900 2,400 5,900 Source: HS2 Ltd models 6.4 This means that with HS2 (London West Midlands) we estimate that there would be three times more rail trips between the city centres of Birmingham, Manchester, 11

12 Liverpool and London in 2043 than there were in Rail travel between Glasgow city centre and London would show even higher rates of growth because mode switch from air travel would be significant. 6.5 Such growth reflects the relatively low share of the long distance market taken by rail. Even with HS2, the level of demand from the West Midlands to London amounts to a little over 1 return rail trip per person per year. This is consistent with the forecast 2043 trip rates (excluding commuters) for journeys to London from places such as Brighton and Cambridge which would have comparable journey times to Birmingham with HS2 (Table 5). Table 5: Rail trip rates per person (return trips, ie two one way trips, excluding commuting trips) Urban Areas to London with HS2 % change (London West Midlands) Greater Manchester % West Midlands % Merseyside % Glasgow % Brighton % Cambridge % Source: HS2 Ltd model. Urban area definitions as in Table 3. Brighton and Cambridge trip rates assumed to be the same with and without HS2 (London West Midlands.) 6.6 Even the Glasgow to London flow, which by 2043 is forecast to grow to more than six times the 2008 level (with the introduction of HS2), represents an increase of only about around 3 trips per year for every 10 people in the Greater Glasgow area compared with today and one third of this is actually mode shift from air to HS2 trains. How have we forecast demand for HS2? 6.7 We have used a model that forecasts how the number of passenger trips made by rail, car and air are affected by changes to the transport network. It is based on existing models developed by the former Strategic Rail Authority and now owned by DfT. 6.8 The model looks at how the introduction of HS2 changes the journey experience how long it takes to travel, the length of time spent waiting for a train, the level of crowding passengers have to face on railways, or the level of congestion on the roads. Based on this change it works out the choices transport users are likely to make, from whether they travel to which mode they would choose and what route they might take. 12

13 6.9 The forecasts start from the estimated market for long distance travel described in section 3. The model then estimates the impact of HS2 and how many people would switch from different modes of transport, namely: existing rail services; car; and, air. In addition, the improved journey times and quality of service offered by HS2 would mean some new trips are made, including some trips being made more often. We refer to these as generated trips. Figure 3 Pie chart of trip type (switching from rail, car, air, or generated trips) Generated Trips 22% Switching from air 6% Switching from car 7% Switching from rail 65% Source: HS2 Ltd model 6.10 Figure 3 gives a breakdown of our forecasts by the four main sources of trip which have been modelled. It shows the majority of HS2 passengers would otherwise have used existing rail services, with smaller volumes switching from car and air services. Who would switch to the high speed services from existing rail? 6.11 The main rail service between London and Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool and Glasgow currently uses the WCML. If HS2 opens, the main direct rail services between these cities would be provided by the new HS2 services instead, with destinations north of Birmingham served by classic compatible trains running onto the WCML via the proposed link close to Lichfield. Our modelling is based on an assumption that fares charged on the new services would be no more expensive on average than those on the existing network. Because trains would be faster and have more seats, using the high speed service would be more attractive than existing rail services between these cities. 13

14 6.12 There would also be some passengers who switch from other rail services because they can make quicker connections using the high speed services. For example, most passengers travelling between Manchester and Reading today use a direct service via Birmingham that takes around 3 hours 30 minutes. With the HS2 Y network in place, it would be possible to travel from Reading to Manchester in about 1 hour 30 minutes by travelling from Reading to the new Old Oak Common station and changing onto a high speed service there. Why would people choose to travel by high speed rail rather than car? 6.13 Rail s competitiveness with car depends on the distance being travelled, and how easy it is to get to and from the rail stations involved. Rail tends to be favoured for longer journeys and for journeys to and/or from city centres. For example, between Manchester and London rail is currently around 90 minutes quicker than road for city centre to city centre journeys. If the journey starts in a suburb of Manchester, however, an extra 30 minutes to an hour may need to be allowed to travel to the city centre if going by rail, whereas the journey time by road is likely to be little different, or even faster Based on the improvements to rail services that HS2 (London West Midlands) enables, but recognising the inherent advantages of car for certain journeys, we estimate that 7% of trips made by high speed rail would have otherwise been taken by car. Of these 5,600 would be leisure trips and 4,700 business trips. This represents a small proportion of the overall number of car trips for longer distance journeys, but could be a more significant proportion of journeys on some specific routes. Why would people choose to travel by high speed rail over air? 6.15 Air is not an option for trips between the West Midlands and London, as there are no flights. For point to point trips between Manchester and London rail already has 76% 7 of the rail air market. On the West Coast corridor, it is mainly for trips between London (and the South East) and Scotland that rail and air compete, because journey times are comparable The best journey times by rail between London and Glasgow today are around four and a half hours and of today s total rail and air market between London and Glasgow is about 17% by rail and 83% by air. With HS2 operating between London and the West Midlands the rail journey time would reduce to around four hours, in the region where it begins to be strongly competitive (Figure 4) These changes in mode share only consider the impact of the proposed line between Birmingham and London. The government has set out its proposals to extend the high speed rail network further which would further reduce rail travel times significantly and make rail even more competitive with air. Domestic and international comparisons have shown that once rail journey times fall to around 3hr Figure. DfT analysis of rail air mode shares. 14

15 30 minutes or lower, rail s share of the market begins to increase rapidly and it usually becomes the preferred mode of travel. Figure 4 shows the current rail share of the rail and air market on selected UK routes. Figure 4 Rail share of Rail & Air market on selected UK routes, Diamonds show data for a range of UK city pairs, with a line of best fit. Rail share of Rail/Air Market (%) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Rail journey time (hours) 10 Source: DfT analysis of rail and air demand data Why would there be new trips as a result of HS2? 6.18 Quicker journey times and increased frequencies enable passengers to make trips that would otherwise have been impractical or unattractive. With the reductions in journey time anticipated from HS2, passengers would be able to get to more places within reasonable travel times than they could before. Overall, we estimate that these new opportunities would lead to an extra 33,000 trips a day being made on HS2 by Of these new trips 59% would be for leisure and 37% for business This increase in demand can be compared with the increase experienced when the WCML was upgraded. 15

16 Case Study: West Coast Main Line Upgrade The WCML runs from London to Liverpool, Manchester and Glasgow. The first stage of the upgraded line opened in September 2004 and the upgrade of the whole line was completed in December This included signalling, track and rolling stock improvements to allow higher speed trains and more trains to be run. This reduced journey times along the route by an average of 34 minutes. As a result of the upgrade, an increase in the number of passengers on the route was experienced compared to other routes which had not been upgraded in the same period. For example, between 2006 and 2009 this resulted in 36% more passenger journeys (relative to 13% across the East Coast Mainline between London, Leeds, Newcastle and Edinburgh) and 38% more passenger kilometres (relative to 15% across East Coast Mainline services). 7 Conclusions 7.1 The past 15 years have seen strong growth in rail demand, especially for long distance travel. Growth was also strong in air demand prior to the effect of the increased security checks required in recent years. There has been much more modest growth in car demand, both for long distance travel and for shorter distances. 7.2 The evidence is that this growth has been driven primarily by economic growth, with population also playing a role. This is supported by evidence from the National travel Survey which shows that people in higher income groups make many more rail trips. Both the economy and population are forecast to continue to grow. 7.3 Our forecasts continue the past growth, but generally at a more modest level than seen on average over the last 15 years. Long distance rail and air travel grow the fastest. 7.4 There are plans to increase capacity on the rail network, and specifically the West Coast Main Line through train lengthening, resulting in just under a 20% increase in the number of seats. This is not nearly sufficient to meet the forecast growth in demand up to Without additional capacity, which is only possible with major investment, rising demand is likely to lead to significantly increased crowding. 7.6 One of the principal objectives of High Speed 2 is to provide additional transport capacity to cater for this forecast growth in demand. The effects would be: in 2043 approximately 136,000 passengers would travel on HS2 each day (46.2 million each year) on the section between Birmingham Interchange and Old Oak Common, and a further 14,000 each day would use classic compatible trains without travelling on the high speed line itself; and, of the people we have forecast to use HS2, 65% would switch from existing rail services, 7% from car, 6% from air, while 22% would be entirely new trips. 16