SAE Government/Industry Future Transportation Trends. Bill Reinert Advanced Technology Group, Toyota Motor Sales, USA, INC January 27, 2011

Transcription

1 SAE Government/Industry Future Transportation Trends Bill Reinert Advanced Technology Group, Toyota Motor Sales, USA, INC January 27, 2011

2 Person Trip Length (miles) Percent (%) Change since 1960 Unique US Urbanization and Transportation Trends US Vehicle Miles Traveled grows with US economy Jobs and housing are decentralizing (despite efforts to do the opposite) Commute distance increasing (often between suburbs of metro area) Highway car remains critically important to US One-way Commute Distance Fifty-year US Travel and Economic Trends Personal Income (2000 $) Vehicle Miles Traveled Population National Highway Travel Survey 2001, US Bureau of Transportation Statistics Omnibus Household Survey 2003, ABC News/Time magazine/washington Post poll Gas $/Gal CPI Adj GDP: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, chained 2000 dollars; VMT: Highway Statistics 2007 Table VMT-421, FHWA; Population: US Census; Gas Price: Short Term Energy Outlook-October 2009 US Energy Information Administration, annual prices scaled by US CPI in 2008

3 Preliminary View of World Oil Supply Spare capacity Opec crude oil NGLs Biofuels Non-Opec crude oil Canadian tar sands Source Peter Wells

4 Reduction of Spare Capacity Opens the Door for Price Spikes Supply Price induced new supply or accelerated supply Demand Price spikes Price Source Peter Wells

5 b/d Mitigation - Natural gas will outlast liquids Compressed natural gas (CNG) 120,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 80,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 Natural gas 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 20,000, Source Peter Wells Peter R.A. Wells

6 Future Engines Require Future Fuels SI-ICE High compression ratio DI, Boosting Gasoline / Flame propagation (spark ignition) HCCI combustion Real world Flame propagation Fuel for SI-ICE High RON Zero sulfur Fuel: Ethanol Methanol? Bio-fuel Synthetic fuel Ideal HCCI (@ partial load) CI-ICE FAME FTD (DME?) Ideal Diesel fuel / Diffusive combustion (self-ignition) HCCI combustion Real world Diffusive combustion Fuel for CI-ICE High cetane number Zero sulfur Low Aromatics Low compression ratio Diesels & ICEs are unlikely to become a single technology New engines will require new fuels, all synthetic

7 Plug in Hybrids For Medium Distance Commuting

8 Operation Specifications Electric Vehicle Charger Assembly HV Battery Engine Household Outlet Electric Motor Max. Output In EV Driving Mode Power Source Electric Vehicle Charger Cable Assembly Engine MG2 Max. Speed AC 110 V to 220 V 98 HP (73 kw) 80 HP (60 kw) Approx. 62 mph (100 km/h) Range Approx. 13 miles (21 km ) Household Electrical Outlets Charging Time Approximately 3 hrs (110 V)

9 PHV Role: EV Mode For Short Distance HV Mode for Longer Trips U.S. Driving Patterns (%) Cumulative percentage of personal automobile trips 80% Trips Cumulative percentage of travel distance energy Approx. 35% Approx. 20% Average Daily Travel Distance per Vehicle (miles) Source: 1990 Nationwide personal transportation survey

10 New Urban Mobility EV Concept Range: 50 miles Charge Time: ~ 2.5hr/7.5hr (220V/110V) 2012

11 Car Sharing is Growing Currently at 70+ U.S. college campuses U.S. Car Sharing Growth Forecast Members (000s) 8,000 7,000 8 mm Potential 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2, k+ Current Members 1, ~2020 Fox Business 2008 (70 Campuses); Innovative Mobility Research 2007 (current members), CNW Research 2008 (8 million forecast)

12 Car Sharing Opens New Market Opportunities Two Basic Models, OEM Owner and Independent OEM Owned Example: Mercedes Smart Car To Go Two Locations, Austin, Texas and Ulm Germany Charge $.35/minute or $70 for all day Insurance (and future charging) Provided Mercedes Retains Control of Vehicle Municipality Provides Free Parking Income Stream From Services not From Sales (Enabled by Smart Phone Applications) Independent Owner Example: Zip Car 350,000 Subscribers and Climbing 49 US Cities, Plus Toronto, Vancouver and London 6000 Vehicles, 70 Different Models Largest Car Sharing Operation in the World Estimated to be $1 Billion Company in 5 years (Fortune Magazine) iphone App Finds the Car, Reserves the Car and Unlocks the Car Municipalities Provide Dedicated Parking and Charging

13 Technology Enables New Possibilities Wireless Technology Promotes Modal Diversity Eco Technology Conserves Energy, Reduces CO 2 Locate Mass Transit Convergence of: Wireless Computing Consumer Electronics Transportation Energy Management Eco-impact Metrics Smart Grid Zipcar Available? Locate Smarter Recommend optimal mode to minimize price & travel time Charge Station Monitor Charge Status Charging Stations PEV ENABLERS Vehicle to Grid

14 Transition in Personal Mobility Transition will require: 1. Real-time Communication from Vehicle a) to customer (web portal, Smart Phone) b) to utilities 2. Shift to other modes of personal transportation 3. Partnerships Mobility based on Multiple Modes Car Sharing Personal Rapid Transit Mass Rapid Transit Now Future Mobility based on Personal Automobile

15 Ubiquitous Charging Increases Electric VMT

16 Challenges: What the Market will Bear 2008 Midsize Car Prices 25% 25% 20% 20% Mass Market Prius 15% 15% 10% 10% Prius PHV 5% 5% 0% 0 to to , ,500 to , ,500 to , ,500 to , , , ,500 to 32,500 to 37,500 to , ,500 to , ,500 to Source: PIN

17 Current/Developing Cost => even 10 mile AER is Too expensive - 70% of total cost is from the battery cells - Cost must be reduced not just cells, but the entire PEV system - Must consider the most balanced all electric range Battery Energy on board Challenges: Battery Costs Cost of PEV System Options for reducing PEVcost: Reduce battery cost per capacity Reduce All Electric Range Expand the Usable SOC ~50% useable energy in actual operation Cell Cost for 10 mile AER Battery Package w/o Cells Plug-in additional (Charger, Inlet, Cable)

18 Challenges: Key Infrastructure Issues Remain Vehicle to Grid Communications Electric Utilities have excess electricity generation capacity during off-peak hours typically at night Even during off-peak times, however, there is insufficient electricity distribution capacity for many PEVs to charge at the same time Communication between vehicle and grid is necessary to avoid negative impacts to distribution system (such as local outages) Level 2 Charging Equipment The majority of customers, particularly larger-capacity BEVs (50+ miles), will need/want L2 (220V) charging at home and business The installation of L2 charging equipment is extremely challenging: high cost, lengthy time period, complex interactions among City, Utilities, Contractor, Customer, OEM and Dealer Resolving L2 installation issues will be critical for EV market adoption Last Mile Grid System not Developed Old Transformers Cannot Accommodate Multiple EVs Charging in One Neighborhood Night Time Charging Limits Charging Hours Public Charging Not Assured

19 According to DOE Targets Fuel Cells Provide Most Efficient Packaging Over 100 Miles Source: DOE

20 Challenges for FC Vehicles Durability Compactness & High Power Density High & Low Temperature Performance Cost Cruising Range

21 Goal of Cost Reduction for FCHV 1/100 Model generation Model generation Model generation Model generation Resolving technical issues Reducing costs By innovative design, material, production engineering By mass production Cost reduction of 1/100 is required by innovative design, materials and production engineering.

22 Hydrogen Station Roll out Scenario

23 Source: DOE Over Time The Costs of Most Technologies Merge

24 Strong Regulatory Push: Reduce CO 2 CARB 2050 Vision CARB Assumptions: Retail Price Increase Versus 2035 Hybrid 2035 Plug-in Hybrid (30 mile AER) $3, Battery Electric (100 mile range) $5, Fuel Cell $2,800 Sources: California Air Resources Board; [ZEV] White Paper CARB expects BEV/FCV sales volume to surpass conventional gas by 2035 and reach 30% of mix by 2040 However, the above vision does not achieve the 80% reduction in GHG emissions from 1990 levels by 2050; ZEVs will need to reach 100% of vehicle sales by 2040, to meet the 80% goal

25 Roles of EV/PHEV/FCV Vehicle Size High-Speed, Long-Distance Driving ICE HV & PHV Sector Private use Public transport FCV Sector Large truck Highway driving between cities Med-to-High Speed, Med-Distance Driving EV sector Light vehicle Med/Large vehicles HV Delivery truck Lower-Speed, Short-Distance Driving Low-Speed, Inter-City Driving Electric welfare vehicle PMR Bicycle Winglet Scooter i-series Delivery vehicle EV commuter PHEV City bus Microbus Driving distance Electricity Mobility-based Gasoline, Diesel, Biofuel, etc Vehicle-based Hydrogen

26 Summary Apply existing technologies in new ways Most of the technologies mentioned already exist, just not yet in the mobility space For now smaller battery approaches are more cost effective Implies multiple charge periods throughout the day Fuel Cells are rapidly maturing Multiple solutions for rapidly changing circumstances PEVs and FCs both face significant infrastructure hurdles At the end of the day, customer is king All solutions must solve customers problems without creating new ones Charging solutions to manage the grid may be at odds with customer expectations.