Motoring Ahead. How the Electric Car will change the Auto Industry, and Consumers. John Stonier Vancouver Electric Vehicle Association

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1 Motoring Ahead How the Electric Car will change the Auto Industry, and Consumers. John Stonier Vancouver Electric Vehicle Association Presented to the Solar Energy Society of Alberta Wednesday, October 13, 2010

2 Vancouver Electric Vehicle Association Formed 1985, BC Society enthusiasts and local businesses All types of electric vehicles, primarily personal use Affiliations: EAA; Electric Mobility Canada Monthly meetings every 3 rd Wednesday 15 th Annual ElectraFest! (formerly Ride Electric Vehicles!) Sept. 12th, 2010 Public Education Forum to share knowledge and experience Provide guidance and stakeholder support to government policy City of Vancouver charging infrastructure w/w VEVA: Millennium Water Olympic Village (2006) 3% Single Family Houses (2008) 100% Multi Unit Condos (2009) 20% with 100% electrical room pre-build. Canadian Electrical Code input to section 86 revisions 2008 Electric Mobility Canada input to the EV Roadmap (issued Feb 2010) SESA October 13,

3 Motoring Ahead Presentation Outline Why electric technology now? What challenges for full implementation? What advantages to the consumer? What next? SESA October 13,

4 Why electric technology now? History of the Electric Car c.1837 electric motor invented (primary batteries) c.1859 Gaston Plante s lead acid battery (secondaryrechargable) c.1900 first hybrids c.1900 electric cars peak 1936 electric cars gone 1973 Oil Embargo revived (brief) interest in EVs 1990 California CARB ZEV mandate 1996 GM EV first modern day gaselectric hybrid 2007 Tesla Now PHEV, EV centre stage 1901 Lohner Porsche Hybrid GM Enfield EV1 (UK) BC Dunsmuir Electric Hotel lamp Electric lighter trucks, shuttle, Carrall Vancouver St. Vancouver, 1913 BC 1912 SESA October 13,

5 Why electric technology now? Peak Oil versus Renewables Source: Andy Frank, SESA October 13,

6 Why electric technology now? Electric Car Attributes HP/Torque vs RPM The Drive/Ownership Experience: Superior acceleration Quiet, reliable performance Primary recharging: at home Regenerative braking Potential for advanced features Maintenance Free (tires and suspension still the same, brakes greatly reduced) Long, long useful lifetime unprecedented with modern consumer products Re-sale value SESA October 13,

7 Cents per Kilometer % Total Energy Why electric technology now? Energy efficiency and cost Basic Efficiencies W-W Gasoline 25% Diesel 30% Fuel Cell 50% Battery Electric 80% Grid tied Electric 90% 100% 90% 80% Full Cycle Energy Use Annual energy costs: ~$300 Other related costs: Battery Replacement 10 years life initially years life in future (?) Price declines with maturation of EV battery industry $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 $0.10 $0.05 $- 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% BC Consumer Fuel Energy Costs per Km - May 2008 ICE - SUV ICE - SI ICE - CI Gas-EV Hybrid 0% ICE Vehicle Type H2FCV (NatGas) BEV GM EV1 Source to Tank Inefficiencies Wheel Torque MIEV Fuel Cost per Km Well to Wheel Ref: Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich SESA October 13,

8 Why electric technology now? GHG Reduction Relative amounts of CO2 per km travelled Diesel Engine Gasoline Engine Electric (AB grid) Gas-Electric Hybrid 930g/kWh Relative CO2 Emissions per Km Electric ( US grid) 615g/kWh Electric (BC grid) SESA October 13,

9 What challenges for full implementation? Consumer Needs vs Perceptions Average daily driving 29 miles ~1% of trips > 100 miles Full-Electric vehicles perfectly suited to urban commuting Plug-in hybrids for inter-city "While it s great to have 250 or 300 mile range, it s completely unnecessary for most people, and you re paying for that. Giving people the option of a 160-mile version, a 230-mile version or a 300-mile version is a great idea." - Elon Musk, CEO Tesla Motors on the launch of the S-Sedan and its battery pack options SESA October 13,

10 What challenges for full implementation? Auto Industry Business Model Higher complexity & lower reliability = Higher revenue & profits Customer purchase frequency bounded by Warranty period and increasing maintenance costs Prediction: Electric cars will drastically reduce the cost of automobile ownership to the consumer!!! Buy big, buy often! Summer 2008 dealership display, Vancouver SESA October 13,

11 What challenges for full implementation? Comparing Costs of Production ICE Hybrids PHEV versus All Electric SESA October 13,

12 What challenges for full implementation? Batteries: Key to Plug-in Future Expensive, now but wait for mass production Energy density increasing 8% pa over the last 10 years Leading technologies for the future: Li-Ion NMC Li-S chemistries Ultra-caps Nanotechnology Internal resistance reduction Cathode surface area 15-75KWh per vehicle ~ 25KWh average SESA October 13,

13 What challenges for full implementation? Infrastructure Issues The Grid is everywhere, but where do you charge up? Home vs Away Connectivity: the last 10 feet Enact Changes through Building Codes Electrical Code Zoning By-laws Standardized Plug SAE J1772 Fast Charge? SESA October 13,

14 What challenges for full implementation? Grid Impacts and Opportunities How much more electricity do we need? Where do we get it? Nega-Watts! eliminate waste Renewables Load Management: Smart Grid technology on charging circuits V2G, V2G(half), V2S Load Smoothing RE Generation Integration SESA October 13,

15 What advantages to the consumer? Value and, Values. Product and Environmental Sustainability Driving Performance Like ICE, but better acceleration Better use of available torque Regenerative Braking Quiet, reliable. Economic Value Long life low energy cost Low maintenance costs With mass production: Low purchase price Photograph by: Mark Van Manen, Vancouver Sun SESA October 13,

16 What advantages to the consumer? Electric Car of 2020 Mass Production, Battery Development Dramatically lower costs, lower purchase price to consumer Vehicle ranges will not be considered an issue Fast charging Electric technology opens up new features Smart charging V2G grid integration Programmable performance Car tones the technology that will produce the i-phone of automobiles Honda IMAS concept car SESA October 13,

17 What Next? Leading Jurisdictions Countries: France: 2M cars by 2020; 8.5B Germany: USA: US$2.4B for storage technologies China: More than a dozen companies scaling up production of EVs Cities: London, Berlin, Paris, San Francisco Public charging infrastructure Vancouver Working with VEVA since 2006 Leader in private charging infrastructure Leading city for new electric car introductions With Mayor Gregor Robinson at the wheel, new Mitsubishi i MiEV electric car arrives at BC Hydro headquarters in Vancouver, April 6, Koji Sogo, president and CEO of Mitsubishi Motor Sales of Canada Inc. was in the passenger seat. Photograph by: Glenn Baglo, Vancouver Sun SESA October 13,

18 What Next? Vancouver By-Law 9419 Approved by Council July 9, 2009, adopted October 20, 2009 Effective April 20, 2011 All new condos required to: have 20% parking stalls wired to CEC std Have electrical rooms with sufficient space for equipment necessary for future installation of 100% of parking stalls SESA October 13,

19 Charging Standards Level 1 110VAC 1kWhr/hr About 5km range/hr Level VAC 4-10kWhr/hr About 20-50km range/hr Level 3 >300VDC 40-60kWhr/hr About km range/hr Public Charging: SAE J1772 standard for Levels 1 & 2 Fast Charging Standards: 4 being put forward CHAdeMO adopted and in use in Japan SESA October 13,

20 What Next? Mainstream Offerings Coming Mitsubishi Renault/Nissan GM: Chevrolet Volt, Cadilac Converj Subaru BMW Mercedes Volvo; Volkswagen Ford Transit Connect SESA October 13,

21 What Next? Leading Upstart - Tesla S-Sedan Deliveries now over 1,000 Production cars (January in 2010) 2012 $50,000 base price Unprecedented media coverage Stunning car 300kW (402HP) Daimler $20M US DoE $465M Toyota $50M IPO $226M June pack sizes to choose from: mile range on a single charge Tesla Roadster Travels 313 Miles (501km) on a Single Charge Competing in Australia s Global Green Challenge, Customer Simon Hackett s red Roadster goes from Alice Springs to Coober Pedy with 3 miles left on the charge. SESA October 13,

22 What Next? Upstart - Fiskar PHEV single offering, the Karma 1,500 pre-sales Buying GM s Boxwood Road Plant in Delaware $529M US Fed Gov t Loan SESA October 13,

23 What Next? Other Upstarts to Watch Better Place BYD Aptera SESA October 13,

24 What Next? Commercial Fleets Bright Smith Electric Navistar Ford Transit Connect SESA October 13,

25 What Next? 2020 Production Rate Predictions Within 10 years close to 30% of the car market will be made up of purely electric vehicles Diarmuid O Connell, Business Development Chief, Tesla Motors (Sept 2009) Dream On Klaus Berning, senior sales executive, Porsche (Sept 2009) SESA October 13,

26 What Next? 2030 Sales and Adoption Predictions Electric cars will account for 64% of US light vehicle sales and comprise 24% of the US light vehicle fleet Baseline forecast: Center for Entrepreneurship & Technology, University of Berkely (Technical Brief, 2009) The rates of adoption are driven by the low purchase price and operating costs of electric cars with separate battery ownership or battery leasing. The estimates include the cost of installing charging and battery switching infrastructure to extend the range of electric vehicles. SESA October 13,

27 What Next? 2009 CET Technical Brief SESA October 13,

28 What Next? Electric Businesses in Alberta SESA October 13,

29 Motoring Ahead Conclusions Will the Electric Car work for Consumers? Absolutely, with familiarity, they will drive demand Urban Commuters first, Inter-city later What Changes are Required? 1. Build smart-grid & infrastructure 2. Look at business opportunities 3. Nega-Watts & 100% renewables as new energy source SESA October 13,

30 Motoring Ahead Thank You Vancouver Electric Vehicle Association John Stonier, CA Principal and Chief Energy Officer Signature Renewables Inc. Office: Mobile: Developing the Renewable Energy Continuum SESA October 13,

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