Revolution på Energimarknaden? Falun 216-4-14 Tomas Kåberger Professor, Director Chalmers University of Technology Energy Area of Advance visiting fellow/academy/professor at IAS TU München/IIIEE Lund Univ. / Zhejiang University Executive board chair Renewable Energy Institute, Tokyo CO2- utsläpp i tre ledande regioner 1965-214 Gton 1 7 5 5 2 5 Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia China Data from BP Statistical review 215 3 3
3 3 17 more cement plants biting the dust Updated: 214-2-18 2:4 By ZHENG JINRAN in Shijiazhuang (China Daily) Hebei continues with project to cut excess capacity in polluting sectors Work began in Shijiazhuang, Hebei province, on Monday on the demolition of another 17 cement factories, two months after the first batch of demolitions to improve air quality. "After the second batch of demolitions is finished in March, we can meet the target of reducing excess capacity three years ahead of schedule, reducing production capacity by 4 percent," said Wang Liang, the mayor of Shijiazhuang. Hebei has been hit by many smoggy days in February, causing serious pollution. On Monday, the air quality index exceeded 2 in the morning. 4 5
Industriell erfarenhet ger lägre kostnader Prof. Clas-Otto Wene, Chalmers Univ. of Technology, 2 Sveriges Bioenergianvändning 197-215 15 1 5 TWh 197198199221 1/3 av använd energi 45 PJ 5 GJ/ capita 1,6 kw/ capita Data: Energimyndigeheten, kortsiktsprognoser Global vindel-kapacitet 198-215 GW 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 198 199 2 21 Data från GWEC Ledande länders utveckling av vind-el 198-215 14 GW 12 1 8 6 4 2 198 1997 21 25 29 213 China USA Germany Spain India Data GWEC,
Experience of Onshore Wind Turbines Electricity production @ 7,5 m/s /MW 1% 127% 145% 22 21 211 SWT 2,3-82 2,3 2,3 SWT 2,3 DD SWT 2,3 DD -113 1 By courtesy 212 4 cent/kwh. was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) 12 13
212 4 cent/kwh. 213 2,5 cent/kwh. was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) was 4,7 cent/kwh 212 4 cent/kwh. 214 2,35 cent/kwh. 213 2,5 cent/kwh. was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) was 4,55 cent/kwh was 4,7 cent/kwh 13 13 212 4 cent/kwh. 214 2,35 cent/kwh. 213 2,5 cent/kwh. was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) was 4,55 cent/kwh was 4,7 cent/kwh 212 4 cent/kwh. 214 2,35 cent/kwh. 213 2,5 cent/kwh. was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) was 4,55 cent/kwh was 4,7 cent/kwh 13 13
212 4 cent/kwh. 214 2,35 cent/kwh. 213 2,5 cent/kwh. was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) was 4,55 cent/kwh was 4,7 cent/kwh http://www.ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/files/info/tal-kort/fremskrivninger-analyser-modeller/notat_-_214_7_1_elproduktionsomkostninger_for_1_udvalgte_tekn 13! 212 4 cent/kwh. 214 2,35 cent/kwh. 213 2,5 cent/kwh. was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) was 4,55 cent/kwh was 4,7 cent/kwh http://www.ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/files/info/tal-kort/fremskrivninger-analyser-modeller/notat_-_214_7_1_elproduktionsomkostninger_for_1_udvalgte_tekn 13! 14 15
25 Solar PV Capacity, Globally GWp 2 15 1 5 1996 15 O1, O2, R1 & R2 hade i medeltal 69% 214 Data: BP statistical review, 215, for 215 IEA and estimate 1999 22 25 28 211 214 5 Solar PV GW 4 capacity, leading countries 3 199-215 6 c /kwh Germany China Italy Japan US UK Sjunkande tariffer för solel i Tyskland 24-214 45 3 2 15 1 jan 214 1 jan 213 1 jan 212 1 jan 211 1 jan 21 1 jan 29 1 jan 28 1 jan 27 17 Data BP stat rev 215, IEA 1 jan 25 1 jan 24 1 jan 26 Rooftop Groud mounted 1 18
19 http://www.solarbuzz.com/resources/articles-and-presentations/us-residential-demand-approaching-1-gw-annum & http://www.seia.org/research-resources/solarphotovoltaic-technology http://www.j-pec.or.jp/information/doc/pdat_h24koufu_213522.pdf http://www.gshakti.org/index.php? I USA, läggs ett nytt solcellstak var 3e minut läggs ett I Japan, USA, läggs ettnytt nytt solcellstak varannan solcellstak var 3e minut! minut http://www.solarbuzz.com/resources/articles-and-presentations/us-residential-demand-approaching-1-gw-annum & http://www.seia.org/research-resources/solarphotovoltaic-technology http://www.solarbuzz.com/resources/articles-and-presentations/us-residential-demand-approaching-1-gw-annum & http://www.seia.org/research-resources/solarphotovoltaic-technology http://www.j-pec.or.jp/information/doc/pdat_h24koufu_213522.pdf http://www.j-pec.or.jp/information/doc/pdat_h24koufu_213522.pdf http://www.gshakti.org/index.php? http://www.gshakti.org/index.php?
I I Bangladesh, Japan, USA, läggs ett läggs nytt ett solcellssystem solcellstak varannan varje 3e minut! http://www.solarbuzz.com/resources/articles-and-presentations/us-residential-demand-approaching-1-gw-annum & http://www.seia.org/research-resources/solarphotovoltaic-technology http://www.j-pec.or.jp/information/doc/pdat_h24koufu_213522.pdf http://www.gshakti.org/index.php?
Negative network effects will transform the economics and operations of our infrastructure within 1, days. Are you prepared to benefit from the massive value creation that will come with game-changing shifts in energy and other industries? In this comprehensively researched economic analysis, noted consultant Michael Rogol shows how to rapidly build small and midsize companies into hundred-milliondollar enterprises within a thousand days. If you do not adjust to market conditions, you put your business at substantial risk including possible annihilation. The clock is ticking. The book was published 13 December 211. A thousand days had passed on September 8th 214. 23 A ceiling of $16/MWh had been set on the solar electricity price. However, when the project developers started reverse bidding, the average price of electricity (for the 148 MW worth of projects which will see the light of day, pun intended) came down to $89/MWh. That s very low, lower than what fossil fuels or nuclear can offer. 89 USD/MWh 65 öre/kwh 24 24
A ceiling of $16/MWh had been set on the solar electricity price. However, when the project developers started reverse biddi ng, the average price of electricity (for the 148 MW worth of projects which will see the light of day, pun intended) came down to $89/MWh. That s very low, lower than what fossil fuels or nuclear can offer. 89 USD/MWh 65 öre/ 24 kwh A ceiling of $16/MWh had been set on the solar electricity price. However, when the project developers started reverse biddi ng, the average price of electricity (for the 148 MW worth of projects which will see the light of day, pun intended) came down to $89/MWh. That s very low, lower than what fossil fuels or nuclear can offer. 89 USD/MWh 65 öre/ 24 kwh A ceiling of $16/MWh had been set on the solar electricity price. However, when the project developers started reverse biddi ng, the average price of electricity (for the 148 MW worth of projects which will see the light of day, pun intended) came down to $89/MWh. That s very low, lower than what fossil fuels or nuclear can offer. 89 USD/MWh 65 öre/ 24 kwh A ceiling of $16/MWh had been set on the solar electricity price. However, when the project developers started reverse biddi ng, the average price of electricity (for the 148 MW worth of projects which will see the light of day, pun intended) came down to $89/MWh. That s very low, lower than what fossil fuels or nuclear can offer. 89 USD/MWh 65 öre/ 24 kwh
A ceiling of $16/MWh had been set on the solar electricity price. However, when the project developers started reverse biddi ng, the average price of electricity (for the 148 MW worth of projects which will see the light of day, pun intended) came down to $89/MWh. That s very low, lower than what fossil fuels or nuclear can offer. 89 USD/MWh 65 öre/ 24 kwh A ceiling of $16/MWh had been set on the solar electricity price. However, when the project developers started reverse biddi ng, the average price of electricity (for the 148 MW worth of projects which will see the light of day, pun intended) came down to $89/MWh. That s very low, lower than what fossil fuels or nuclear can offer. 89 USD/MWh 65 öre/ 24 kwh A ceiling of $16/MWh had been set on the solar electricity price. However, when the project developers started reverse biddi ng, the average price of electricity (for the 148 MW worth of projects which will see the light of day, pun intended) came down to $89/MWh. That s very low, lower than what fossil fuels or nuclear can offer. 89 USD/MWh 65 öre/ 24 kwh 25
25 25 25 25
25 Olika energislags bidrag till ökningen av Increased elproduktionen electricity production i Kina 211-212 213-214 in China 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 2 4 TWh 4 175 15 Data: http://www.cec.org.cn/guihuayutongji/gongxufenxi/dianliyunxingjiankuang/215-2-2/133565.html (uncertainties fossil biomass remains) 17 15 1 Fossil Hydro Nuclear Wind Solar Biomass 26 Change in US electricity generation 214 to 215 3 TWh 2 1 1 2 Data from http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/ 27 Hydro New Renewable Nuclear Fossil UK electricity generation 215-214 TWh 2 1 1 2 3 Fossil Nuclear Renewable 28 https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/511955/energy_trends_march_216.pdf
TWh Change in Japan s Electricity Generation 215-214 (calendar year) 2 1 1 2 3 4 4 3 2 1 Tysklands elförsörjning 2-215 Fossilt Fossilt+import Kärnkraft+förnybart Kärnkraft Förnybart 5 Fossil Nuclear Renewables 3 Data: METI Electricity Research Statistics 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 6 TWh 5 Danmarks elproduktion 1985-214 4 3 2 1 Fossil Solar Wind Biomass 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 31 Data: BP statistical review 215 32
Fraunhofer ISE Fraunhofer ISE CO2- utsläpp i tre ledande regioner 1965-214 Gton 1 7 5 5 2 5 Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia China Monatliche Produktion Solar und Wind Monatliche Produktion Solar und Wind Jahr 214 TWh 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Januar Februar März April Mai Juni Juli August Sept. Oktober Nov. Dez. Legende: Wind Solar Data from BP Statistical review 215 FRAUNHOFER-INSTITUT FÜR SOLARE ENERGIESYSTEME ISE Stromerzeugung aus Solar- und Windenergie im Jahr 214 Prof. Dr. Bruno Burger 34 Fraunhofer-Institut für Solare Energiesysteme ISE Freiburg, den 7.1.215 www.ise.fraunhofer.de Wöchentliche Produktion Solar und Wind Tägliche Produktion Solar und Wind Wöchentliche Produktion Solar und Wind TWh Jahr 214 Tägliche Produktion Solar und Wind 2,5 2, 1,5 1,,5 1 4 8 12 16 2 24 28 32 36 4 44 48 52 Kalenderwoche TWh,5,4,3,2,1 Jahr 214 Legende: Wind Solar Januar Februar März April Mai Juni Juli August Sept. Oktober Nov. Dez. Legende: Wind Solar FRAUNHOFER-INSTITUT FÜR SOLARE ENERGIESYSTEME ISE Stromerzeugung aus Solar- und Windenergie im Jahr 214 Prof. Dr. Bruno Burger 35 Fraunhofer-Institut für Solare Energiesysteme ISE Freiburg, den 7.1.215 www.ise.fraunhofer.de Die maximale tägliche Summe der Stromproduktion aus Solar und Wind betrug,676 TWh am 22.12.214 Die minimale tägliche Summe der Produktion betrug,22 TWh am 21.1.214 Grafik: B. Burger, Fraunhofer ISE; Daten: Leipziger Strombörse EEX 44 Fraunhofer ISE FRAUNHOFER-INSTITUT FÜR SOLARE ENERGIESYSTEME ISE Stromerzeugung aus Solar- und Windenergie im Jahr 214 36 Prof. Dr. Bruno Burger Fraunhofer-Institut für Solare Energiesysteme ISE Freiburg, den 7.1.215 www.ise.fraunhofer.de
Vad gör man med bara sol och vind? 37 El-effektivisering El-produktionsprognoser Efterfrågestyrning(värme/kyla) El-överföring El-lagring Reserv-elverk 38 39 39
http://www.siemens.com/innovation/en/ home/pictures-of-the-future/mobility-andmotors/electromobility-electric-ferries.html 39 4 Cost development Li-Ion batteries USD/kWh http://www.international-pilot.com/airbus-puts-electric-e-fan-trainer-into-production-in-pau/ 41 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qfbfzjbqh_i#t=3
38, Tesla Powerwall Reservations In Under A Week! May 7th, 215 by Zachary Shahan One of the huge pieces of news coming out of Tesla s conference call last night was that 38, reservations have been made for Tesla s Powerwall. This has apparently even blown Tesla away, and looks to mean that Tesla is sold out through the middle of 216. I don t think anyone can put it in better words that Tesla CEO and Product Architect Elon Musk himself, so here s a transcript from that portion of the conference call: The response has been overwhelming. Okay like, crazy. In the course of less than a week, we ve had 38, reservations for the Powerwall, 2,5 reservations for the Powerpack. The Powerpack, it should be noted, typically this is bought by utilities or large industrial companies, for heavy industrial work. Typically, Powerpack, it s like at least 1 Powerpacks per installation, so if there s 2,5 reservations, there s actually 25, Powerpacks. Powerwall also, we suspect, is probably an average number of Powerpacks is probably 1½ to 2 per installation. So, you know, so, 3, reservations is more like 5, or 6, actual Powerwalls. I mean, there s like no way that we could possibly satisfy this demand this year. And we re basically, like, sold out through the middle of next year in the first week. It s crazy. 43 43 38, Tesla Powerwall Reservations In Under A Week! May 7th, 215 by Zachary Shahan One of the huge pieces of news coming out of Tesla s conference call last night was that 38, reservations have been made for Tesla s Powerwall. This has apparently even blown Tesla away, and looks to mean that Tesla is sold out through the middle of 216. I don t think anyone can put it in better words that Tesla CEO and Product Architect Elon Musk himself, so here s a transcript from that portion of the conference call: The response has been overwhelming. Okay like, crazy. In the course of less than a week, we ve had 38, reservations for the Powerwall, 2,5 reservations for the Powerpack. The Powerpack, it should be noted, typically this is bought by utilities or large industrial companies, for heavy industrial work. Typically, Powerpack, it s like at least 1 Powerpacks per installation, so if there s 2,5 reservations, there s actually 25, Powerpacks. Powerwall also, we suspect, is probably an average number of Powerpacks is probably 1½ to 2 per installation. So, you know, so, 3, reservations is more like 5, or 6, actual Powerwalls. I mean, there s like no way that we could possibly satisfy this demand this year. And we re basically, like, sold out through the middle of next year in the first week. It s crazy. 43 44
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/215-6-3/at-opec-the-saudi-oil-minister-mainly-wants-to-discuss-solar-power 44 45 46 47
47 48 Revolution på Energimarknaden? Falun 216-4-14 Tomas Kåberger Professor, Director Chalmers University of Technology Energy Area of Advance visiting fellow/academy/professor at IAS TU München/IIIEE Lund Univ. / Zhejiang University Executive board chair Renewable Energy Institute, Tokyo 49