THE FUTURE OF THE SOLAR INDUSTRIE

Transcription

1 THE FUTURE OF THE SOLAR INDUSTRIE Eicke R. Weber Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE and University of Freiburg, Germany Ecosummit 2015 Berlin, May 20, 2015

2 Fraunhofer ISE Research for the Energy Transformation in these Topics: Fotos n Energy Efficient Buildings n Silicon Photovoltaics n III-V and Concentrator Photovoltaics n Dye, Organic and Novel Solar Cells n Photovoltaic Modules and Power Plants n Solar Thermal Technology n Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology n System Integration and Grids Electricity, Heat, Gas n Energy Efficient Power Electronics n Zero-Emission Mobility n Storage Technologies n Energy Systems Analysis 2

3 A Radical Transformation of our Energy System is Needed Jeremy Rifkin: We are starting the 3 rd Industrial Revolution! n Limited availability of fossil fuels Fossil fuels get scarce 3

4 A Radical Transformation of our Energy System is Needed n Limited availability of fossil fuels n Danger of catastrophic climate change n Risk of nuclear disasters n Growing dependency on imports from politically unstable regions New since recently: The world gets warmer Increasing economic opportunities! 4

5 Cornerstones for the Transformation of our Energy System to efficient use of finally 100% renewable energy - Energy System 2.0 n Energy efficiency: buildings, production, transport n Massive increase in renewable energies: photovoltaics, solar and geo thermal, wind, hydro, biomass... n Fast development of the electric grid: transmission and distribution grid, bidirectional n Small and large scale energy storage systems: electricity, hydrogen, methane, methanol, biogas, solar heat, hydro... n Sustainable mobility as integral part of the energy system: electric mobility with batteries and hydrogen/fuel cells 5

6 World EnergyRessources renewable finite World Energy Ressources (TWyear) SOLAR 23,000 per year per year Waves per year 3-11 per year OTEC WIND Natural Gas 215 Total 240 Total 2010 World energy use: 16 TWy per year 2 6 per year Biomass Petroleum 2050: 28 TW TIDES 0.3 per year 3 4 per year HYDRO per year Geothermal Total Uranium R. Perez et al. 900 Total reserve 6 COAL

7 renewable finite World Energy Ressources (TWyear) SOLAR 23,000 per year per year Waves per year 3-11 per year OTEC WIND Natural Gas 330 Total 310 Total 2010 World energy use 16 TWy per year 2 6 per year Biomass Petroleum 2050: 28 TW TIDES 0.3 per year 3 4 per year HYDRO per year Geothermal Total Uranium R. Perez et al. 900 Total reserve 7 COAL

8 Electricity generation from renewable energy sources Development in Germany /2013 Year 2013 Total* 25.4% TWh PV 4.7% 30 TWh 35.9 GW Bio 8.0% 48 TWh Wind 8.9% 53 TWh 34.7 GW Hydro 3.5% 21 TWh * Gross electricity demand 8

9 Price Learning Curve of Solar Energy (c-si Photovoltaics) - Driven by Innovation & Market Introduction! Preis über kumulierter Kapazität in GW Learning Rate: Each time the cumulative c-si PV production doubled, the price went down by 20 % - by a factor of 10 in 25 years! Solar Electricity Today: 8-10 ct/kwh in Germany, half in sun-rich countries! Source: Navigant Consulting; EUPD PV module prices (since 2006), Graph: ISE

10 Source: Solarbuzz

11 Crystalline Silicon Technology Portfolio c-si PV is not a Commodity, but a High-Tech Product! material quality n diffusion length n base conductivity device quality n passivation of surfaces n low series resistance n light confinement material quality cell structures n PERC: Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell n MWT: Metal Wrap Through n IBC-BJ: Interdigitated Back Contact Back Junction n HJT: Hetero Junction Technology Industry Standard 14% PERC 15% BC- HJT IBC-BJ HJT MWT- PERC 16% module efficiency 21% 20% 19% 18% 17% device quality Adapted from Preu et al., EU-PVSEC

12 Advanced Cell Technologies Passivated Emitter and Rear PERC 1 Heterojunction on Intrinsic layer HIT 3 Passivating Layer Local Contacts Metal Wrap-Through MWT-PERC 2 Interdigitated Back Contact/Junction IBC-BJ 4 Lightly Doped Front Diffusion Texture+passivation Layer Metal Wrap Through Contact Passivating Layer Local Contacts 12 1 Blakers et al., Appl. Phys. Lett. 55, pp , Dross et al., Proc. 4th WCPEC, 2006, pp Sanyo/Panasonic 4 Sunpower

13 High-Efficiency III/V Based Triple-Junction Solar Cells 13 Slide: courtesy of F. Dimroth

14 World Record Efficiency of 46 % for a Wafer Bonded Four-Junction Solar Cell 14

15 PV-Production Capacity by Regions Will China dominate the 100+ GW/a market 2020? Source: Navigant Consulting, Grafik: PSE AG

16 Global PV Production Capacity and Installations Module Capacity (GW) Excess Capacity (GW) Production Capacity Installations Excess Capacity Outlook for the development of supply and demand in the global PV market. Source: Lux Research Inc., Grafik: PSE AG 16

17 The xgwp European Gigawatt Fab VISION: European PV system industry as column of European energy transformation and competitiveness Industrial network Close partners downstream & upstream New business models Political innovation Business model innovation European cooperation Motor: Germany & France European innovation network leading research institutes directly involved Permanent high level of innovation Cheaper Solar Power Higher efficiency Lower costs Better characteristics Latest PV Technology (details tba).. Entrepreneurial innovation Product innovation Process innovation Technical innovation Less material needed Less process steps Higher automation Higher quality VISION: Disruptive PV with next technology generation 17 17

18 PV Electricity Cost (LCOE) till 2050 in different regions PV will generate lowest-cost 2-4ct/kWh! Source: ISE PV cost study

19 PV Market Growth (IEA 2014) n Rapid introduction of PV globally is fueled by availability of cost-competitive, distributed energy n In 2050 between and GW p PV will be installed! n By 2015, less than 200 GW p have been installed! We are just at the beginning of the global growth curve! Source: IEA

20 The Future of the Solar Industry n The global energy transformation is the challenge of our generation, as first step of the needed transformation to sustainability. n Harvesting solar energy by photovoltaics will be one of the cornerstones of our future energy system n Driven by R&D in a rapidly expanding market, the price for solar electricity will continue to fall, from 9ct/kWh in Germany today to below 5ct/kWh, in sun-rich countries half these numbers, below the cost of electricity from all other sources! n The transformation process will require huge investments in the global energy system to the tune of $ 20,000 bn, to guarantee stable supply n The key challenge will be the question which countries will dominate the needed technologies and the markets..asia or US/EU? n Let s have a look at some latest technology developments! 20

21 Thank you for your attention! Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Eicke R. Weber with ISE coworkers 21