Solar: Power Today. June 2011

Transcription

1 Solar: Power Today June 2011

2 Residential 1-10 kw Commercial Rooftop 10 kw 1 MW Utility Scale 1 MW 250 MW

3 Solar Growing Rapidly, Averaging 65% Compound Annual Growth Rate for the Past 5 Years 17 nuclear power plants worth of solar peak power shipped in 2010 Source: PV Industry Growth Data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant

4 Solar Industry Growth has Produced Steadily Falling Prices Module Pricing Trends Sources: data from IPCC, Final Plenary, Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN), May 2011; data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant; 2011 numbers based on current market data

5 Conventional Electricity Costs are Increasing Average Retail Price of Electricity Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) ; DOE, Annual Energy Outlook, 2011

6 Solar Adoption on High Tech Trajectory US cell phone subscribers has risen from 5.3 million to 285 million in 15 years

7 Solar Price Drops Mirror High Tech Consumer Goods Driven by Innovation, Automation, and Scale

8 Solar at Zero Cost in Increasing Markets 100% Financing accelerating solar home sales Sale of Energy, not equipment Never an Increase in your Utility Bill >100,000 solar power systems already installed

9 Cents per Kilowatt Hour Solar is Less Expensive Than New Nuclear $0.139 $0.129 $0.095 $0.07 Average time to permit and build a nuclear 1 GW power plant 13 years. Average time to permit and build 1 GW solar 1 year. The last nuclear power plant completed in the US, Watts Bar 1 in Tennessee, took 23 years 7 months to construct. Sources: 2011 nuclear price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version nuclear price is illustrative, calculated assuming 3.5% annual escalation; 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011, 2020 PV price illustrative, assuming 4% annual cost reduction from 2016 (further validated by prices bid by solar developers into the California markets).

10 Cents per Kilowatt Hour Solar Beats Natural Gas Peak Power Today $0.226 $0.238 $0.139 $ MW Gas CT Gas peakers pollute 3 times more than natural gas power plants. Sources: 2011 gas price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version gas price is illustrative, calculated assuming 1% annual escalation; 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011 (further validated by prices bid by solar developers into the California markets).

11 Cents per Kilowatt Hour New Coal Can t Deliver Power for 6-8 Years, When Solar Will Be Competitive $0.139 $0.109 $0.08 $0.07 $0.07 Coal Plant 5% 500 MW Source: 2011 coal price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version coal price is illustrative, calculated assuming 5% annual escalation: 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011, 2020 PV price illustrative, assuming 4% annual cost reduction from 2016 (further validated by prices bid by solar developers into the California markets).

12 Solar Meets Critical Peak Power Demand Sources: For summer peak load shape California Independent System Operator (CAL-ISO); For time of use rates Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E); For PV Tracking Output Solaria Corporation

13 Germany, with Less Sun than Seattle, is Largest Solar Market in the World Solar Energy Capacity (2009) in GW Lazard: Compiled from multiple industry sources, May 2011

14 Germany, with Less Sun than Seattle, is Largest Solar Market in the World Italy and Germany added 13 GW in 2010 Solar Energy Capacity (2010) in GW Lazard: Compiled from multiple industry sources, May 2011

15 U.S. Solar Market Is Small but Growing US Total Installed PV Solar Energy Nameplate Capacity and Generation DOE, NREL, Renewable Energy Data Book, 2009; Lazard: Compiled from multiple industry sources, May 2011

16 California Adding Multiple GW of Solar in the Next 5 Years 2009 Utility RFO submittals: 30 GW2011 Utility RFO submittals: 45 GW (expected) California could be 20% solar by Of the 8.6 GW under contract, 4.4 GW is below the Market Price Referent (MPR), defined as the 20-year levelized cost of energy from a new natural gas plant in California. Source: Greentech Media, February 2011

17 The Northeast has Huge Solar Potential 50% of New Jersey electrical load could be served by PV placed in a square 10 miles on a side

18 Utilities Recognize Solar s Advantages Completed US PV Projects Total USA Installed PV 2 GW in 50 States Global Installed 26 GW Source: Solar Electric Power Association (

19 Utilities Recognize Solar s Advantages Completed US Utility Solar US PV Announcements Projects 1 Equal to 12 nuclear plants in 4 years Over the next 4 years 12 GW 1 Note: Utility purchases only - Does not include residential and commercial markets Source: Solar Electric Power Association (

20 Solar Subsidies Pale in Comparison to Fossil Fuels Fossil Fuel and Solar Estimating U.S. Government Subsidies to Energy Sources: Environmental Law Institute, September 2009SEIA (Solar Energy Industries Association) Federal Energy Subsidies in the United States: A Comparison of Energy Technologies, February 24, 2011 Ending Oil Industry Tax BreaksCongressman Earl Blumenauer, Third District of Oregon, April 2011

21 Fossil Fuel Subsidies Pad Profits while Prices Increase $72 bn Sources :ARP of Electricity from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA); Subsidy Data Source from SEIA :

22 Relatively Small Solar Subsidies Produce Significant Price Declines $2 bn Sources: Weighted Average ASP Data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant; Subsidy Data Source from SEIA

23 Solar Creates Jobs Average Total Jobs/Megawatts x more jobs than coal Nat ural Gas Coal Nuclear Wind CCS Biomass Solar Thermal Geot hermal Solar PV Sources: Kammen, David M et al, 2004, Report of the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Lab, Putting Renewables to Work: How Many Jobs Can the Clean Energy Industry Create?, Energy Resources Group, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley.Wei, Max et al, 2010, Putting Renewables to Work: How Many Jobs Can the Clean Energy Industry Create?, Energy Resources Group, Goldman School of Public Policy and the Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, in Energy Policy, vol 38, issue 2, February 2010.

24 Solar is Ready Now Solar 17 GW Coal 6.7 GW Wind 2.5 GW Natural Gas 5.5 GW Solar added more than 17 GW worldwide 2010 All other sources combined only added 14.7 GW in the US 2010 Source: Erik Shuster, National Energy Technology Laboratory, Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants, January 14, 2011(Natural as includes NGCC at 4GW and NG GT and 1.5 GW.)

25 US Solar Resource Dwarfs Other Markets SPAIN Enough land area to power the whole country GERMANY Map Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy

26 US Lags in both PV Production and Market Growth 2010 Global Supply/Demand Supply 17.4-GWp Demand Source: Supply data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant; Demand data from Source: Greentech Media

27 TWH/yr Transition to Renewables To 2030 To 2040 To 2050 Substitute Generation Smartgrid Flexible Generation Energy Storage Solar power will be the largest source of electricity in the U.S. Sources: McKenzie Report, 2007 for starting points and energy efficiency; AWEA for wind; internal SunPower calculations for DPV, CPV, CSP

28 Public Support for Clean Energy 91 percent of Americans say developing sources of clean energy should be a priority for the president and Congress 85% of Republicans 89% of Independents 97% of Democrats Sources: Public Support for Climate & Energy Policies in May 2011, Yale Project on Climate Change.

29 Solar Less expensive than new nuclear and cost competitive with new coal and gas started today Delivers Gigawatt s of power fast 8 to 20 years faster than coal or nuclear

30 Thank Date You and other info

31 Appendix Date and other info

32 Solar is Cost Competitive in Many States Right Now Residential Price for Conventional Electricity (Cents per Kilowatt Hour) Solar PV is comparably priced in the Eastern US with a range of 15 to 25 cents/kw hour Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

33 Load (GW) Peak Demand/Heat Waves Coincide with Peak Sun New York City Blackout Summer 2003 Economic losses in NYC alone exceeded $1bn. New York City Summer 2006 Peak Demand Day Losses were between $7 to 10 bn in the Northeast U.S. and Canada Blackout could have been avoided with just 500 MW PV Economic Loss Sources: Reuters, ICF Consulting in Richard Perez - ARSC (with permission), City Comptroller, William Thompson, 2003

34 Among Global Energy Sources 15 World Energy Use 15 TW-yrs per year 23 Wind Natural Gas Renewable Energy (Annual Reserves) 4 6 Biomass OTEC 170 Petroleum 0.3 Tides 0.5 Waves 2 Geothermal Hydro 220 Uranium FINITE ENERGY (TOTAL RESERVES) 900 Total reserve Coal Richard Perez Used With Permission

35 Solar is by Far the Most Abundant 15 World Energy Use 15 TW-yrs per year 23 Wind 70 Solar 11 Natural Gas 40,000 TW-yrs per year 6 OTEC Biomass Petroleum Geothermal Hydro 220 Tides Waves Uranium 900 Total reserve Coal Richard Perez Used With Permission

36 Examples of Energy Disasters Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear MeltdownMarch 2011 BP Deep Water Horizon Oil SpillApril 2010 Upper Big Branch Coal Mine DisasterApril 2010 Natural Gas Pipeline Explosion in San Bruno, CASeptember, 2010