FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE FOR SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS ISE

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1 FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE FOR SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS ISE European Summer Campus Energy on all scales Dipl.-Phys.oec Johannes Mayer Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE

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3 Economic loss through climate induced catastrophes Pressemeldung im Handelsblatt für 2011 Grafik: IPCC SREX, Daten: Munich Re 3

4 Potential emissions from fossil resources Grafik: IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation 4

5 The Energiewende in Germany 5

6 Fighting climate change in the electricity sector Two options: A) Energiewende : Renewable Energies B) Nuclear Power Plants But: Environmental Risks, Costs and market perspective stand against a nuclear renaissance 6

Nuclear Power Plants But: Environmental Risks, Costs

7 Global Power Plant Installations in the Future Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Global Renewable Energy Market Outlook

8 Principles of the EEG Technology specific feed-in tariff (xx ct/kwh) Feed-in tariff is adjusted according to cost decrease Priority for RE production Power is sold at the EEX EEG-Umlage paid by ectricity consumers 8

according to cost decrease Priority for RE production

9 Development of wind energy in Germany and France Source: Koordinierungsstelle Erneuerbare Energien, Markt und Branchenentwicklung 9

10 Technological Progress triggert by incentive programs Source: IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation 10

11 Development of wind energy in Germany and France Source: Koordinierungsstelle Erneuerbare Energien, Markt und Branchenentwicklung 11

12 Average growth rates of RE technologies Grafik: BMU nach ZSW mit Daten der Internationalen Energieagentur (IEA) 12

13 Electricity production by source, first 7 months 2013 Installed solar and wind power GW year GW GW solar power wind power 13

14 Monthly Production from Solar and Wind in 2012 Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer ISE, Data: EEX 14

15 Combined power from solar and wind+ MW Anzeigejahr: Solar MW Wind Grafik: B. Burger, Fraunhofer ISE; Daten: Leipziger Strombörse EEX 15

16 Actual Electricity Production in May 2012 Ro-River Uran B-Coal H-Coal Gas PSt Wind Solar Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer ISE, Data: EEX, dstatis 16

17 Actual Electricity Production in CW 52, 2012 Ro-River Uran B-Coal H-Coal Gas PSt Wind Solar Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer ISE, Data: EEX, dstatis 17

18 Actual Electricity Production in CW 21, 2012 Ro-River Uran B-Coal H-Coal Gas PSt Wind Solar Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer ISE, Data: EEX, dstatis 18

19 Electricity production by source, first 7 months 2013 Electricity production: first seven months 2013 TWh TWh 85.1 TWh 65.5 TWh year TWh 24.2 TWh 19.4 TWh 10.5 TWh Uranium Brown Coal Hard Coal Gas Wind Solar Run of River 19

1 TWh 85.1 TWh 65.5 TWh year 2013 40 20 23.8 TWh 24.2 TWh 19.

20 Prices drop of Solar Modules 20

21 PV Feed-In Tariffs and Electricity Prices in Germany Source: Harry Wirth, Fraunhofer ISE Aktuelle Fakten zur Photovoltaik in Deutschland 21

22 Future LCOE of Renewable Energies 22

23 Electricity Import and Export in 2012 Import Export Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer ISE, Data: BMWi Energiedaten (-2011); DESTATIS (2012);Entso-e (2013, skaliert) 23

24 Electricity Import and Export in 2012 Electricity Export and Import TWh year 2013 January February March April May June July August Sept. October Nov. Dec. Legend: Export (DESTATIS) Import (DESTATIS) Export (Entso-e) Import (Entso-e) Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer ISE, Data: BMWi Energiedaten (-2011); DESTATIS (2012);Entso-e (2013, skaliert) 24

25 Electricity Import-Export-Balance since 1990 ~ 30 GW wind & PV ~ 60 GW wind & PV Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer ISE, Data: DESTATIS (2012) 25

26 Some basics about the german electricity market 26

27 A few facts on the German electricity market Annual cross power production: ~ 590 TWh Total Generation Capacity: ~ 170 GW Solar: ~ 33 GW Wind: ~ 30 GW Electricity market liberalization in 1998 Since 2002: European Energy Exchange (EEX) Price and dispatch mechanism: Merit-Order Source: Peter Kaminski 27

28 The Merit-Order Uranium Brown Coal Hard Coal Gas Oil Marginal costs of electricity production Available Net Plant Power, Increasing flexibility of power plants Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer ISE 28

29 The Merit-Order Renewable Uranium Brown Coal Hard Coal Gas Oil Marginal costs of electricity production Price drop Available Net Plant Power, Increasing flexibility of power plants Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer ISE 29

30 Historical Day-Ahead Base- and Peak-Prices Day-Ahead Price, volume weighted & inflation-adjusted (2010 prices), Update: June 2013 /MWh Base_h Peak_h Base hours (00:00-24:00) Peak hours (08:00-20:00) HY Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX

31 History of Price Extremes in the Day-Ahead Market /MWh 2500 Weekly Day-Ahead maximum and minimum prices, Update: July Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX 31

32 Negative Electricity Prices in Germany 32

33 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: March 2013 / MWh Period Mean Period Min Period Max Std Deviation Day-Ahead 38,97-50,00 120,20 17,13 Intraday 39,31-83,20 110,40 19,04 Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX, Entso-e 33

34 Electricity Production and Spot-Prices: CW / MWh Period Mean Period Min Period Max Std Deviation Day-Ahead 36,12-50,00 108,60 21,03 Intraday 36,67-83,20 110,40 25,20 Source: Johannes Mayer, Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX, Entso-e 34

35 Analysis of the Negative Spot-Prices on Over 30 GW Solar and Wind Nuclear and brown coal power plants not able to reduce power. 14:00-15:00 RoR Uran BC HC Gas PSt Wind Solar Production GW 1,2 9,4 12,9 3,3 4,3 0,3 16,6 14,1 Plant Utiliz.* 32,4 % 78,0 % 71,5 % 16,2 % 22,0 % 2,8 % 54,9 % 42,4 % *compared to total installed capacity 35 Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX

36 Analysis of the Negative Spot-Prices on Total projection error Su Actual production from wind and solar was higher than projected, the total load was lower than projected the day before. The result was an oversupply with electricity of up to 15 GW. Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX 36

37 Development of low and negative price periods Abbildung 1: Anzahl der Niedrigpreisstunden (<= 10 /MWh und <= 0 /MWh), 1. Halbjahr 37

38 Plant System Utilization over Day-Ahead Prices 100% Utilization ratio depending on Day-Ahead Spot-Prices, 1. HY 2013 Source: Johannes Mayer, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX, Bundesnetzagentur, dstatis 38 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Day-Ahead Spot-Price in /MWh Uranium Brown Coal Gas Hard Coal

39 Nuclear plant utilization including non-availabilities Planned non-availability Unplanned non-availability Actual production Sum Source: Bruno Burger, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems; Data: EEX, Bundesnetzagentur, dstatis 39

40 Flexibility of conventional power plants Uranium Brown Coal Hard Coal Gas Cold start Warm Start Load change rate Minimum Load

41 Change of electricity production by source Change in electricity production: first seven months 2013 versus first seven months 2012 TWh TWh +2.7 TWh +4.8 TWh +1.3 TWh TWh -2,0-4,0-6,0-8,0-3.3 TWh -5.6 TWh Uranium Brown Coal Hard Coal Gas Wind Solar Run of River 41

42 Price curve of European Union Allowances (EUAs) Source: 42

43 Conclusion The EEG was very succesfull in kick-starting renewable energies Costs for PV and wind systems reduced significantly Negative Prices show upcoming system conflict More flexibility in the power system is necessary Development of a new electricity market design 43

44 Thank-you for your attention! Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Dipl.-Phys.oec Johannes Mayer 44

FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE FOR SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS ISE

FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE FOR SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS ISE Electricity Production and Spot-Prices in Germany 2014 Dipl.-Phys. oec. Johannes Mayer aunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE 31.12.2014 www.ise.fraunhofer.de