Gton Vad händer i Energivärlden idag och imorgon? Göteborg 2016-05-10 Tomas Kåberger Professor, Chalmers University of Technology Energy Area of Advance Executive board chair Renewable Energy Institute, Tokyo CO2- utsläpp i tre ledande regioner 1965-2014 10 000 7 500 5 000 2 500 Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia China 0 Data from BP Statistical review 2015 3 3
3 3 17 more cement plants biting the dust Updated: 2014-02-18 02:04 By ZHENG JINRAN in Shijiazhuang (China Daily) Hebei continues with project to cut excess capacity in polluting sectors Work began in Shijiazhuang, Hebei province, on Monday on the demolition of another 17 cement factories, two months after the first batch of demolitions to improve air quality. "After the second batch of demolitions is finished in March, we can meet the target of reducing excess capacity three years ahead of schedule, reducing production capacity by 40 percent," said Wang Liang, the mayor of Shijiazhuang. Hebei has been hit by many smoggy days in February, causing serious pollution. On Monday, the air quality index exceeded 200 in the morning. 4 5
Industriell erfarenhet ger lägre kostnader Prof. Clas-Otto Wene, Chalmers Univ. of Technology, 2000 Sveriges Bioenergianvändning 1970-2015 150 100 50 TWh 0 19701980199020002010 1/3 av använd energi 450 PJ 50 GJ/ capita 1,6 kw/ capita Data: Energimyndigeheten, kortsiktsprognoser Global vindel-kapacitet 1980-2015 GW 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 Data från GWEC Ledande länders utveckling av vind-el 1980-2015 140 GW 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1980 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 China USA Germany Spain India Data GWEC,
Experience of Onshore Wind Turbines Electricity production @ 7,5 m/s /MW 100% 127% 145% 2002 2010 2011 SWT 2,3-82 2,3 2,3 SWT 2,3 DD SWT 2,3 DD -113 10 By courtesy 2012 4 cent/kwh. was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) 12 13
2012 4 cent/kwh. 2013 2,5 cent/kwh. was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) was 4,7 cent/kwh 2012 4 cent/kwh. 2014 2,35 cent/kwh. 2013 2,5 cent/kwh. was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) was 4,55 cent/kwh was 4,7 cent/kwh 13 13 2012 4 cent/kwh. 2014 2,35 cent/kwh. 2013 2,5 cent/kwh. was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) was 4,55 cent/kwh was 4,7 cent/kwh 2012 4 cent/kwh. 2014 2,35 cent/kwh. 2013 2,5 cent/kwh. was 6,2 cent/kwh (43 öre/kwh) was 4,55 cent/kwh was 4,7 cent/kwh 13 13
2012 2A0ve 14ra ge ce of Anverage ppriri ew wind pcoewoer f 3 201 new wind po w 4 of e ce ce r pri nt/ h. ge Av2era,35 cenkw kwer h. pow new wind t/ h. Ta t/kw king into 2,5 Takcen ing into ac co nt the accouu ninto t the ing P Tak ro d u ct Productioio x nntata x the t oun acc C re d, th e Creditit p ri ce, the ptax rice duction Pro waas 2c ce w nt/ t/ce s 46,,55 e n kkw Whh pri Cre (43dit, örethe /kwh) was 4,7 cent/kwh! ivninger-an kort/fremskr fo/talns.dk/files/in ns.dk/sites/e http://www.e eller/n alyser-mod 07_01_elp otat_-_2014_ kostnin roduktionsom _udva ger_for_10 lgte_teknolog ier.pdf 13 14 50 250 Solar PV Capacity, Globally Solar PV GW 40 capacity, leading countries 30 1990-2015 GWp 200 150 20 100 10 50 0 1996 Germany China Italy Japan US UK Data: BP statistical review, 2015, for 2015 IEA and estimate 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 0 16 Data BP stat rev 2015, IEA
60 c /kwh 45 30 15 0 1 jan 2004 1 jan 2005 Rooftop Groud mounted 1 jan 2006 1 jan 2007 1 jan 2008 1 jan 2009 1 jan 2010 1 jan 2011 1 jan 2012 1 jan 2013 1 jan 2014 Sjunkande tariffer för solel i Tyskland 2004-2014 17 18 I USA, läggs ett nytt solcellstak var 3e minut http://www.solarbuzz.com/resources/articles-and-presentations/us-residential-demand-approaching-1-gw-annum & http://www.seia.org/research-resources/solarphotovoltaic-technology http://www.j-pec.or.jp/information/doc/pdat_h24koufu_20130522.pdf http://www.gshakti.org/index.php? http://www.solarbuzz.com/resources/articles-and-presentations/us-residential-demand-approaching-1-gw-annum & http://www.seia.org/research-resources/solarphotovoltaic-technology http://www.j-pec.or.jp/information/doc/pdat_h24koufu_20130522.pdf http://www.gshakti.org/index.php?
I Japan, USA, läggs ett nytt solcellstak var 3e minut solcellstak varannan minut! I I Bangladesh, Japan, USA, läggs ett läggs nytt ett solcellssystem solcellstak varannan varje 3e minut! http://www.solarbuzz.com/resources/articles-and-presentations/us-residential-demand-approaching-1-gw-annum & http://www.seia.org/research-resources/solarphotovoltaic-technology http://www.j-pec.or.jp/information/doc/pdat_h24koufu_20130522.pdf http://www.gshakti.org/index.php? http://www.solarbuzz.com/resources/articles-and-presentations/us-residential-demand-approaching-1-gw-annum & http://www.seia.org/research-resources/solarphotovoltaic-technology http://www.j-pec.or.jp/information/doc/pdat_h24koufu_20130522.pdf http://www.gshakti.org/index.php?
Negative network effects will transform the economics and operations of our infrastructure within 1,000 days. Are you prepared to benefit from the massive value creation that will come with game-changing shifts in energy and other industries? In this comprehensively researched economic analysis, noted consultant Michael Rogol shows how to rapidly build small and midsize companies into hundred-milliondollar enterprises within a thousand days. If you do not adjust to market conditions, you put your business at substantial risk including possible annihilation. The clock is ticking. The book was published 13 December 2011. A thousand days had passed on September 8th 2014. 23 22
A ceiling of $106/MWh had been set on the solar electricity price. However, when the project developers started reverse biddi ng, the average price of electricity (for the 1048 MW worth of projects which will see the light of day, pun intended) came down to $89/MWh. That s very low, lower than what fossil fuels or nuclear can offer. 89 USD/MWh 65 öre/ 23 kwh A ceiling of $106/MWh had been set on the solar electricity price. However, when the project developers started reverse biddi ng, the average price of electricity (for the 1048 MW worth of projects which will see the light of day, pun intended) came down to $89/MWh. That s very low, lower than what fossil fuels or nuclear can offer. 89 USD/MWh 65 öre/ 23 kwh A ceiling of $106/MWh had been set on the solar electricity price. However, when the project developers started reverse biddi ng, the average price of electricity (for the 1048 MW worth of projects which will see the light of day, pun intended) came down to $89/MWh. That s very low, lower than what fossil fuels or nuclear can offer. 89 USD/MWh 65 öre/ 23 kwh A ceiling of $106/MWh had been set on the solar electricity price. However, when the project developers started reverse biddi ng, the average price of electricity (for the 1048 MW worth of projects which will see the light of day, pun intended) came down to $89/MWh. That s very low, lower than what fossil fuels or nuclear can offer. 89 USD/MWh 65 öre/ 23 kwh
A ceiling of $106/MWh had been set on the solar electricity price. However, when the project developers started reverse biddi ng, the average price of electricity (for the 1048 MW worth of projects which will see the light of day, pun intended) came down to $89/MWh. That s very low, lower than what fossil fuels or nuclear can offer. 89 USD/MWh 65 öre/ 23 kwh A ceiling of $106/MWh had been set on the solar electricity price. However, when the project developers started reverse biddi ng, the average price of electricity (for the 1048 MW worth of projects which will see the light of day, pun intended) came down to $89/MWh. That s very low, lower than what fossil fuels or nuclear can offer. 89 USD/MWh 65 öre/ 23 kwh A ceiling of $106/MWh had been set on the solar electricity price. However, when the project developers started reverse biddi ng, the average price of electricity (for the 1048 MW worth of projects which will see the light of day, pun intended) came down to $89/MWh. That s very low, lower than what fossil fuels or nuclear can offer. 89 USD/MWh 65 öre/ 23 kwh 24
25 25 25 25
25 25 Change in US electricity generation 2014 to 2015 30 TWh 20 10 0 10 20 Data from http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/ 26 Hydro New Renewable Nuclear Fossil Increased electricity production 2014-2015 in China Data CEC TWh 100 Renewable Nuclear Thermal (Fossil and Biomass) 70 40 10 20 50 80 110 140 27
400 300 200 Tysklands elförsörjning 2000-2015 Fossilt Fossilt+import Kärnkraft+förnybart Kärnkraft Förnybart TWh Icke-fossil elproduktion i världen 1965-2015 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 100 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 28 1 000 0 Renewable Nuclear 29 198519901995 2000200520102015 Data: BP Statistical Review 2015, for 2015 own estimates Dåliga invändningar Monatliche Produktion Solar und Wind Monatliche Produktion Solar und Wind Subventionsberoende Intermittent Bas kraft Nätinvesteringar TWh 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 Jahr 2014 Januar Februar März April Mai Juni Juli August Sept. Oktober Nov. Dez. Legende: Wind Solar FRAUNHOFER-INSTITUT FÜR SOLARE ENERGIESYSTEME ISE Stromerzeugung aus Solar- und Windenergie im Jahr 2014 30 31 Prof. Dr. Bruno Burger Fraunhofer-Institut für Solare Energiesysteme ISE Freiburg, den 07.01.2015 www.ise.fraunhofer.de
32 32 http://www.siemens.com/innovation/en/ home/pictures-of-the-future/mobility-andmotors/electromobility-electric-ferries.html 32 33
34 34 Cost development Li-Ion batteries USD/kWh 36
38,000 Tesla Powerwall Reservations In Under A Week! May 7th, 2015 by Zachary Shahan One of the huge pieces of news coming out of Tesla s conference call last night was that 38,000 reservations have been made for Tesla s Powerwall. This has apparently even blown Tesla away, and looks to mean that Tesla is sold out through the middle of 2016. I don t think anyone can put it in better words that Tesla CEO and Product Architect Elon Musk himself, so here s a transcript from that portion of the conference call: The response has been overwhelming. Okay like, crazy. In the course of less than a week, we ve had 38,000 reservations for the Powerwall, 2,500 reservations for the Powerpack. The Powerpack, it should be noted, typically this is bought by utilities or large industrial companies, for heavy industrial work. Typically, Powerpack, it s like at least 10 Powerpacks per installation, so if there s 2,500 reservations, there s actually 25,000 Powerpacks. Powerwall also, we suspect, is probably an average number of Powerpacks is probably 1½ to 2 per installation. So, you know, so, 30,000 reservations is more like 50,000 or 60,000 actual Powerwalls. I mean, there s like no way that we could possibly satisfy this demand this year. And we re basically, like, sold out through the middle of next year in the first week. It s crazy. 38,000 Tesla Powerwall Reservations In Under A Week! May 7th, 2015 by Zachary Shahan One of the huge pieces of news coming out of Tesla s conference call last night was that 38,000 reservations have been made for Tesla s Powerwall. This has apparently even blown Tesla away, and looks to mean that Tesla is sold out through the middle of 2016. I don t think anyone can put it in better words that Tesla CEO and Product Architect Elon Musk himself, so here s a transcript from that portion of the conference call: The response has been overwhelming. Okay like, crazy. In the course of less than a week, we ve had 38,000 reservations for the Powerwall, 2,500 reservations for the Powerpack. The Powerpack, it should be noted, typically this is bought by utilities or large industrial companies, for heavy industrial work. Typically, Powerpack, it s like at least 10 Powerpacks per installation, so if there s 2,500 reservations, there s actually 25,000 Powerpacks. Powerwall also, we suspect, is probably an average number of Powerpacks is probably 1½ to 2 per installation. So, you know, so, 30,000 reservations is more like 50,000 or 60,000 actual Powerwalls. I mean, there s like no way that we could possibly satisfy this demand this year. And we re basically, like, sold out through the middle of next year in the first week. It s crazy. 36 36 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-03/at-opec-the-saudi-oil-minister-mainly-wants-to-discuss-solar-power 37 38
Vad händer i Energivärlden idag och imorgon? Göteborg 2016-05-10 Tomas Kåberger Professor, Chalmers University of Technology Energy Area of Advance Executive board chair Renewable Energy Institute, Tokyo 39