United Nations Economic Commission for Europe COMMITTEE ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY 24-26 November 2010 Global Energy Assessment Thomas B Johansson Professor, International Insitute for Industrial Environmental Economics, Lund University, Lund, Sweden, Co-Chair, Global Energy Assessement, IIASA, Austria
Primary Energy (EJ) World Primary Energy 500 Renewable 400 Microchip Nuclear 300 Commercial aviation Nuclear energy Gas 200 100 Steam engine Electric motor Gasoline engine Vacuum tube Television Oil Coal 0 Biomass 1850 1900 1950 2000 Source: Nakicenovic et al., 1998
Challenges requiring actions on Energy a. Energy services for growing populations and economies b. access to modern forms of energy (the ~2 billion w/o access) c. affordable energy services (@$100/bbl??) d. secure supplies, from households to nations ( peak ) e. local and regional health and environment challenges f. climate change mitigation g. ancillary risks => Major Energy System Changes Needed!
These challenges must be addressed adequately timely simultaneously
Assessement Process leading to a Report and much more 25 Knowledge Modules, ~200 authors, geographically and gender diversified Stakeholder consultations External peer review Extensive dissemination Informing Rio +20 and other international, regional, national and corporate processes on energy and/or linked to energy issues
Supporting the GEA: International Organizations UNDESA UNDP UNEP UNIDO World Bank IIASA Country Governments/Agencies Austria Brazil European Union Germany Italy Sweden USA Corporations Petrobras TEPCO First Solar Industry groups WEC WBCSD Foundations UN Foundation Climate Works
Four Clusters of Knowledge modules: 1. The Challenges, nature and magnitude of change required 2. Resources and technology options 3. Pathways to sustainability, urbanisation, rural energy, and land use 4. Policies, energy end use and supply sectors, access, innovation, capacity development
this translates into a need for a major energy systems transformation Main elements: Energy end-use efficiency Renewable energies Carbon Capture and Storage (for CC only) Efficiency and Renewables are INSTRUMENTS for addressing all the challenges at the same time!
celková energie [kwh/m 2 a] 250 200-90% Domácí spotřebiče Vzduchotechnika PassivHaus 150 Ohřev TUV Vytápění 100 50-75% 0 Stávající zástavba Pasivní dům Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, www.pasivnidomy.cz
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 State-of-the-Art Scenario Results: world heating and cooling final energy consumption as compared to development in building floor area Thermal Comfort Final Energy Floor Area Energy, PWh/year 18,0 16,0 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 Adv New New Adv Ret Retrofit Standard 42.8% Floor Area, 1E9 m^2 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 126.1% Adv New New Adv Ret Retrofit Standard WORK IN PROGRESS DO NOT CIT OR QUOTE
PWh/ year The risk of the lock-in effect Final thermal energy consumption in Europe* State-of-the-art vs. suboptimal renovation scenarios 4 3,5 3-20.3% 2,5 2-71.5% 51.2% 1,5 1 0,5 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 WORK IN PROGRESS DO NOT CIT OR QUOTE Sub-Optimal Scenario State of the Art * Results for Europe is a sum of the results for Western Europe (WEU) and Eastern Europe (EEU)
40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2010 10% 16% 10% 21% 15% 12% 14% 31% 28% 36% 32% 6% 4.0% 4.5% 4.9% 5.5% 6.2% 7.0% 5.5% 3.1% 3.4% 3.7% 4.2% 4.8% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Renewable power capacity addition as a % of global power capacity addition Renewable power generation increase as a % of global power generation increase Renewable power as a % of global power capacity Renewable power as a % of global power generation Excl. large hydro
EJ GEA Pathways Efficiency, Mix, Supply 1200 1000 800 600 400 Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs 200 0 2005 2030 2050 Figure shows primary energy and conventional transport
Public Energy R&D in OECD Source: IEA, 2008
Area Occupied by Various Transport Modes Source: WBCSD, 2005
not just energy technology Urban planning Transportation systems Material use Land use Consumption patterns..
Economic development and poverty alleviation while mitigating climate change Multiple benefits concept Value all benefits (jobs, growth, security, health, local environment,...) Costs in terms of per tc misleading Energy efficiency Renewable energies
Major findings and conclusions Rapidly changing world Transformative changes needed on energy Window of opportunity exists Resources and technologies exist Rapidly growing role for renewable energies Electricity growing importance Policies and institutions critical Energy subsidies and R&D misallocated Capacity development worldwide
Thank you! www.globalenergyassessment.org