Global Energy Assessment Toward a Sustainable Future

Transcription

1 Keynote Address at the 10 th Anniversary of the Global Climate &Energy Project Creating a Bright Energy Future GCEP at 10 Years Stanford University October 10, 2012 Global Energy Assessment Toward a Sustainable Future by Thomas B Johansson Professor em, International Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics, Lund University, Sweden Co-Chair, Executive Committee, Global Energy Assessment/IIASA, Austria, Commissioner for fossil independent road transport, Ministry of Enterprise, Sweden

2 EJ Global Primary Energy Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Commercial aviation Nuclear energy Microchip Steam engine Electric motor Gasoline engine Vacuum tube Television Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass Source: GEA Chapter 17

3 From: Steffen et al Source: IGBP

4 The planetary boundaries concept Source: Fockström et al., 2009

5 Challenges requiring actions on Energy a. Energy services for growing populations, 7 to 9 billion by 2050; and economies, 2%/a per capita b. Universal access to modern forms of energy (the ~3 billion w/o access) c. affordable energy services (@$100/bbl??) d. secure supplies, from households to nations; peak oil e. health and environment challenges (WHO guidelines ++) f. planetary boundaries, incl. climate change mitigation (<+2 deg above pre.ind.) g. Peace h. ancillary risks (large accidents, nuclear weapons proliferation, food prices,...) => Major Energy System and Policy Changes Needed!

6 These challenges must be addressed adequately timely simultaneously

7 Global Energy Assessment Towards a Sustainable Future Initiated to explore the role of energy and energy options addressing global sustainability, The work involved >300 Authors from five continents, Peer-review by >200 Anonymous Reviewers coordinated by Review Editors, 7 Final report (Cambridge University Press), 1800 pages, just published (September 2012)

8 Intellectual origins of the GEA (not exhaustive) Limits to Growth (Meadows et.al, 1972) Energy in a Finite World, (Häfele et al.,1979) Energy for a Sustainable World (Goldemberg, Johansson, Reddy, and Williams, 1985/88) United Nations Solar Energy Group for Environment and Development (chaired by T.B. Johansson), commissioned Renewable Energy Sources for Fuels and Electricity, 1993) Energy after Rio (UNDP,1996) Energy for Tomorrow s World (World Energy Council, 1998) World Energy Assessment, (2000; UNDP, WEC, UNDESA) World Energy Assessment update IIASA s Scientific Advisory Committee endorsed the proposal of TBJ to establish a 2 nd WEA, called Global Energy Assessment (2006)

9 Authors 25 Chapters led by Convening Lead Author(s) (CLA) with typically Lead Authors (LA) All authors selected on the basis of excellent scientific credentials, and also striving for a resonable regional and gender balance All CLAs formed the GEA Executive Committee

10 Convening and Lead Authors TOTAL 302

11 Executive Committee Regional Balance North America: Sally Benson Marc Jaccard Eric Larson Susan McDade Bob Schock Kirk Smith Frank von Hippel Kurt Yeager

12 Executive Committee Gender Balance

13 Sponsoring Organizations Governments/Agencies Austria - multi-year European Union Germany Italy Norway Sweden - multi-year USA (EPA, DoE) Industry First Solar Petrobras WBCSD WEC International Organizations GEF IIASA UNDESA UNDP UNEP UNIDO World Bank (ESMAP) Foundations UN Foundation Climate Works Foundation Global Environment & Technology Foundation

14 Reasons for Concern The Red Embers 3.2 o C 2 o C 1.5 o C Source: Smith et al. PNAS, 2009

15 Global emission pathways in compliance with a 2 ºC guardrail, with 67% probability (WBGU 2009) Source: WBGU

16 The challenges translate into a need for a major energy systems transformation Main elements: Energy end-use efficiency Renewable energies Carbon Capture and Storage (for CC only)

17 celková energie [kwh/m 2 a] % Domácí spotřebiče Vzduchotechnika Passive Buildings Stávající zástavba Pasivní dům Ohřev TUV Vytápění Energy use for space conditioning reduced by 90+ % through application of better - 75% insulation, windows, doors etc., as well as heat recovery and solar gains. Applicable to both new construction and renovation. Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings,

18 final energy use: global heating and cooling Floor Area Thermal Comfort Final Energy Floor Area, 1E9 m^ Energy, PWh/year % Adv New New Adv Ret Retrofit Standard Adv New New Adv Ret Retrofit Standard - 43 % Source: GEA Chapter 10

19 Transportation Source: GEA Chapters 9, 12, and 17

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23 Figur från Tomas Kåberger

24 Annual global net grid connection changes GW/a 20 wind nuclear PV Year

25 2008$/kW Nuclear PWR Investment Costs (US overnight Nuclear excl. PWR interest, Investment France Costs partly incl. interests) US overnight excl. interest, France partly incl. interests mean/best guess and min/max of costs US average France best guess cum GW installed US: Koomey&Hultman, 2007, France: Grubler, 2009 Source: GEA Chapter 24

26 biomass upstream emissions photosynthesis Fuel transport/distribution fuel flue gases coal upstream emissions vehicle tailpipe grid electricity displaced Co-gasification of coal and biomass for the Co-production of power, fuels, and chemicals with CCS leading to negative carbon emissions ATMOSPHERE electricity to grid biomass Conversion coal CO 2 storage char Source: GEA Chapter 12

27 Objectives and goals for the GEA energy back-casting scenario for 2050 Support economic growth at recent historic rates Almost universal access to electricity and cleaner cooking, by 2030 Reduce air pollution impacts on health, adhering to WHO guidelines Avoid dangerous climate change, stay below + 2 o C above preindustrial global mean temperature Improve energy security through enhanced diversity and resilience of energy supply And in the process, address peak oil and nuclear weapons proliferation challenges

28 Branching points in GEA backcasting analysis Source: GEA Chapter 17

29 EJ GEA-Supply Pathway Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass Source: GEA Chapter 17

30 Matching policies to investment needs Source: Chapter 22

31 Million US$2008 PPP Public Sector Energy RD&D in IEA Member countries by major technology group Other Efficiency Renewables Fossil Fuels Fusion Nuclear w/o fusion % future technology needs share in cum. emission reduction past and current R&D into developing improved technologies, shares by technology Distribution of past and current energy R&D as compared to future technology needs from the pathways analysis 80% 60% 40% 20% Nuclear Renewables Fossil Fuels Other Energy Efficiency Source: GEA Chapter 24 0% Min Mean Max In future mitigation scenarios (technology needs portfolio) public energy R&D (past, current R&D portfolio) MIN Mean Max

32 Access as an example of policy integration: Combining policies delivers maximum benefit

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34 Policy integration at the urban scale Simulated energy use for an urban settlement of 20,000 inhabitants using the SimCity Model combining spatially explicit models of urban form, density, and energy infrastructures, with energy systems optimization. Source: Chapter 18

35 Policies: Some key messages Technology is important, but it is equally important are issues related to implementation: institutions, market behavior, skills & capacities, etc. The urgency for action is motivated by the urgency of addressing the challenges as well as the need to achieve multiple goals simultaneously and to avoid negative lock-in Subsidies and enhancing R&D and innovation are key areas for intervention. For example, a reorientation of the R&D efforts to energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies is required Energy policies need to be coordinated with policies in sectors such as industry, buildings, urbanization, transport, health, environment etc. The multiple benefits from efficiency/renewables investments need to be incorporated in market conditions These messages are well-known, but GEA chapters present some compelling examples

36 Simultaneous economic development, poverty alleviation, and reduced greenhouse gas emissions The concept multiple benfits Value all benefits (jobs, growth, seurity, helath, local environment, reduced claimate impacts,...) To characterize costs of a project in terms of per tc avoided is misleading. Efficient use of energy, esp. at the point of end.use Renewable energies

37 not just energy technology Urban planning Transportation systems Material use Land use Consumption patterns..

38 Value of GEA approach Specific results are noteworthy, however, there are aspects of the approach that go further Scenario/Pathways based on normative goals Quantification of sustainable development policies Identification and consideration of multiple benefits Possibility of engagement with different stakeholders and entry points for transformative change Emphasis on specific sectors and areas that offer urgent and important windows for intervention Urban areas Energy access Energy efficiency Renewable energies R&D and innovation 39

39 A few Conclusions: Many combinations of resources and technologies can address the challenges simultaneously. these combinations create (societal and individual) benefits that are not reflected in the conditions of market actors. more efficient use of energy offers the largest flexibility on the supply side; renewables to increase significantly CCS probably a must Nuclear power may be an option, but is not a must. strong incentives och capacity development are needed and can only be provided by the public sector

40 Thank you!