Global Energy Assessment

Transcription

1 Global Energy Assessment Toward a Sustainable Future IIASA Nebojsa International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Director #1

2 Global Energy Challenges From 7 bn people, 3 bn cook with solid fuels and 1.5 bn lack access to electricity Efficiency and decarbonization bring multiple benefits for health, security, climate change Financing requirements are huge, but achievable with right and sustained policies 212 #2

3 GEA, #3

4 Percentage population electrified Historical Household Electrification 1 8 USA South Africa 6 Egypt Brazil $125/capita Lessons: successful outcomes more India likely when China 4 $78/capita $38/capita and $3/capita $5/capita poverty alleviation efforts as: $94/capita 2 electrification integrated with wider developmental Universal access achieved faster Financial sustainability of utilities better Overall welfare enhancement greater Year Source: Pachauri et al, #4

5 212 #6 14 ~245 GtCO 2 Unconventional ~4,55 GtCO 2 N. ~34 5 GtCO 2 ~66 1, GtCO 2 Unconv. ~1,1 1,5 GtCO 2 ~1,6 1,65 GtCO 2 Cumulative Emissions for 2 o C Stabilzaiton ~85 GtCO 2 Historcial Emissions ~19 GtCO 2 Hydrates ~1, Hydrates ~6,6 GtCO 2 57, GtCO 2 ~ 3, GtCO 2 Preidustrial Atmosphere ~2 GtCO 2 Present Atmosphere ~36 GtCO 2

6 Europe Population vs. Energy Demand Density WEU: 21% of demand below renewable density threshold EEU: 34% of demand below renewable density threshold #7

7 Mögliche Synergien zwischen neuen Energie- und Transportinfrastrukturen: Asiatisches Supergrid Super Cables Power lines Electric Power Research institute MAGLEV Source: Y. Yamagata, NIES. 21

8 EJ Global Primary Energy Other renewables Kommerzielle Luftfahrt Nuklearenergie Mikrochip 4 2 Dampfmaschine Elektrischer Motor Vakuumröhre Ottomotor Fernseher Renewables #9

9 EJ Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Einsparungen Savings Andere Other renewables E Nuklear Öl Kohle e Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~4% improvement by 23 ~55% renewables by phase-out (policy) phase-out (necessary) Renewables Source: Riahi et al, #12

10 EJ Global Primary Energy lim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN Savings Other renewables Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~4% improvement by 23 ~3% renewables by 23 Limited Intermittent REN 6 4 phase-out (necessary) Nat-gas-CCS -CCS Renewables 2 Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS negative CO #13

11 EJ EJ Global Primary Energy Europe Savings Other renewables Savings Other renewables Renewables Source: Riahi et al, #14

12 EJ EJ Global Primary Energy Africa Savings Other renewables Savings Other renewables ~5% renewables by 23 Renewables #15

13 EJ Global Primary Energy Savings Other renewables Energie Einsparungen (Effizienz, Umwandlung und Verhalten) ~5% Verbesserung bis 23 ~5% EE bis Renewables

14 Technological Learing Source: Grubler et al, #18

15 Global Energy Investments Annual Energy Investments Innovation RD&D [billion US$25] Markets Formation [billion US$25] Present Investments [billion US$25] Investment for SE4All [billion US$25] Efficiency >> 8 ~ Renewables > 12 ~ Access < 1 < 1 ~ Total > 5 < #19

16 Total Global Policy Costs (21-23) Energy Policy Costs (% GDP) 1.2% 1.% Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point.8%.6%.4%.2%.% Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, #2

17 Temperature Change (degree K) Temperature Change #21

18 Temperature Change (degree K) Temperature Change #22