Brazil. Economic upswing and sustainable energy development. Marcelo Khaled Poppe

Transcription

1 Economic upswing and sustainable energy development Marcelo Khaled Poppe

2 Primary energy supply Oil 47.1% Nuclear 1.2% Coal 7.4% Natural Gas 5.5% Traditional biomass (unsustainable) 3.4% New renewable Modern biomass 2.2% 11.3% Modern renewable 13.5% Large hydro 12.8% Traditional biomass (renewable) 9.1% Renewable 35.4%

3 Renewables and CO 2 emissions Renewables Brazil: 35% World: 14% OECD: 6% CO 2 emissions Brazil: 1.7 t/toe World: 2.4 t/toe

4 New renewables Brazilian Renewable Energy Incentive Programme - PROINFA Grid connected power from Biomass, Wind and Small Hydro 1 th th Phase: 3,300 MW up to the end of nd Phase: : 15% of the annual increment of the electricity consumption till reach 10% of total Ethanol Pro-Alcohol (ethanol fuel programme) Biodiesel Pro-Biodiesel (clean fuels programme)

5 Energy pattern- transport sector CONSUMO DE ENERGÉTICOS NO SETOR DE TRANSPORTE (tep) GÁS NATURAL 6% 12% 2% ÓLEO DIESEL ÓLEO COMBUSTÍVEL 26% 2% GÁS NATURAL 1.006,9 milhões m3 ÓLEO DIESEL ,1 mil m3 ÓLEO COMBUSTÍVEL 784,6 mil m3 GASOLINA AUTOMOTIVA ,7 mil m3 QUEROSENE 3.812,2 mil m3 ÁLCOOL ETÍLICO ,8 mil m3 FONTE: BEN - AN0 BASE % GASOLINA AUTOMOTIVA QUEROSENE ÁLCOOL ETÍLICO

6 Bioenergy The first world producer of sugar cane, alcohol and sugar 5 million hectares of cultures (10% of the country cultivated land) Energetic biomass cost = US$ 1.4 / GJ (ind. countries goal for 2020) Energy efficiency = 8.6 (produced bioenergy / energy consumed) Knowledge frontier expansion : hydrolysis, genetics,... Production (2002/2003) Sugar cane 315 million tones Sugar 22.4 million tones Alcohol 12.5 million m³

7 Ethanol Large experience using ethanol as fuel for vehicles 2.2 million cars running only with ethanol 25% of ethanol blended in the gasoline Real possibility to supply the clean fuel world market with ethanol as a reliable commodity

8 Ethanol prices 100 US$ / GJ (Oct. 2002) Ethanol (producers BR) Gasoline (Rotterdam) Ethanol cumulative production ( ) m 3 ) Source: J Goldemberg,, 2003

9 Flex-fuel motors Using gasoline, ethanol or a mix of both VW and GM sold around 10,000 vehicles in 2003 Ford and Fiat are starting in 2004, and announcing a tri-fuel motor (+ natural gas)

10 Biodiesel Clean fuel programme Fuel diversification and green fuel promotion Job creation, land use and economic upswing in rural areas Reduction of oil imports Main steps Quality standards Price management Production chain: culture, transformation and trade METAS PROVÁVEIS PARA O PROGRAMA BIODIESEL Meta de substituição do diesel 2,00% 2,75% 3,50% 4,25% 5,00% 5,00%

11 Power System Transmission Lines 230 kv: 33,800 km 345 kv: 9,000 km 440 kv: 6,700 km 500 kv: 22,000 km 600 kvcc: : 1,600 km 750 kv: 2,700 km Total: 75,800 km Transformation GVA Belém São Luís Fortaleza Tocantins Teresina Natal João Pessoa Parnaíba Recife São Francisco Maceió Aracajú Cuiabá Salvador Brasília Goiânia Paranaíba Belo Campo Grande Grande Horizonte Vitória Paraná/Tietê Paranapanema Itaipu Iguaçu Argentina Uruguai Jacui Porto Alegre Paraíba do Sul Rio de Janeiro São Paulo Curitiba Florianópolis

12 Electricity Installed Capacity (Interconnected and Isolated Systems) Hydro ( > 30 MW ) 65,000 MW Thermal * 13,500 MW Nuclear 2,000 MW Wind 22 MW Small Hydro 2,000 MW Solar *** 15 MWp Biomass ** 2,500 MW Import 8,000 MW Import 9% Nuclear Renew able 2% 5% Thermal 14% (*) NG, Oil and Coal (**) 57% Alcohol and sugar cane sector (***) More than 30,000 PV Systems Number of Consumers: 52.5 millions Hydro ( >30MW ) 70% Source: MME. July, 2003.

13 New renewables - present situation Small hydro (2,000 MW) Identified In study Authorized Under construction 9,800 MW 2,400 MW 3,000 MW 500 MW Wind (22 MW) Estimated Authorized 143,000 MW 6,400 MW Solar (15 MWp) Estimated 100 MWp Sources: MME, CEPEL, ANEEL, CENBIO.

14 New renewables - present situation (cont.) Biomass (2,500 MW) Technical Potential Alcohol and Sugar Cane 4,000 MW Rice and paper-cellulose 1,300 MW Authorized 300 MW Under construction 54 MW Sources: MME, CEPEL, ANEEL, CENBIO.

15 Proinfa 1 st phase Renewable Energy Incentive Programme 3,300 MW grid connected facilities starting operating up to 12/31/06 1/06 1,100 MW from biomass 1,100 MW from wind energy 1,100 MW from small hydro power (SHP) 20 years power purchase agreements (PPA) to be signed with Eletrobras until 04/26/04 Purchase of the produced electricity by the economic values EV (fixed prices) defined for each specific source 60% minimum national supply of equipments and services

16 Proinfa - 2 nd phase Renewable Energy Incentive Programme To provide 15% of the annual increment of the electricity consumption, till reach 10% of the national demand Limiting impacts in the generation tariff Benefiting other renewable sources Bidding process / green certificates / distinct top prices by source and technology 90% minimum national supply of equipments and services

17 Proinfa Success requirements Public acceptability Regulatory stability Access to the transmission and distribution grid Favourable conditions to the grid access Grid expansion Attractive economic value Economic and financial viability of the project Financing conditions compatible with the technology and the Program Prices stability for the equipments Development of local industries R&D investments Capacity building

18 Benefits of Proinfa Decentralization of power generation Favourable learning curve perspective derived from comparative advantages (climate, land, etc.) Diversification of the energy sources and actors Season energetic complementary between wind and hydro in the NorthEast and biomass and hydro in the SouthEast new job positions US$ 3 billion of private investments US$ 1,5 billion of equipment orders 2,5 million tco 2 / year of emissions reduction Business opportunities for green and carbon certificates

19 Opportunities of Proinfa Structural long term policy for renewables Brazilian landmark for the magnifying of renewables in the energy matrix Renewables competitiveness promotion through scale and learning processes Technological and industrial development Risk reduction volatility on oil and gas prices and exchange rate Sustainable Development

20 Rural electrification Universal access and use and poverty alleviation Urban 99%, Rural 70% 2 million households up to 2006 (Urban 100%, Rural 90%) Estimated costs: US$ 2 billion Grid extension, village mini-grids and individual systems Pubic service regime Local people involvement Community multi-service stations / multi-function platforms

21 Rural electrification Prodeem Social community needs: schools, health centres, water pumping PV systems up to now Other renewable technologies for social and productive community needs

22 Rural electrification targets Rural households Cost US$ million % up to 2008

23 Energy Efficiency National Policy Definition of guidelines for energy efficiency in the Country Operational Guide: priorities, responsibilities, goals, schedules National Programs PROCEL Electricity CONPET Oil & Gas Appliances and Equipments 1986 Labelling 1993 Awards 2001 Minimum Performance Standards (mandatory) Market Escos deployment voluntary

24 Minimum Energy Performance Standards CGIEE (Government, Regulatory Agencies and Society) Decision level TECHNICAL COMMITTEES (Research centres, Universities, PROCEL, CONPET, INMETRO, etc.) Technical level NEGOTIATION GROUPS (Industry and Government) Negotiation level

25 R&D and EE Investments AMOUNT 1% of the net income of utilities for R&D and EE ( ( US$ 180 million/year) Utilities (Under regulatory control) CT- Energ (Sector R&D Found) Amount Invested through CT-ENERG Budget (million US$) US$ 1.00 = R$ 2.90

26 Challenges for the Country To promote infrastructure investment on a coordinated and sustainable way To improve the environment management and quality To promote the conservation and the sustainable use of natural resources To extend and to strengthen the scientific and technological bases for sustainable development

27 Marcelo Khaled Poppe uol.com..com.br