The Energy Turnaround in Europe and its Consequences for Renewable Generation, Energy Infrastructure and end-use

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1 Das Bild kann nicht angezeigt werden. Dieser Computer verfügt möglicherweise über zu wenig Arbeitsspeicher, um das Bild zu öffnen, oder das Bild ist beschädigt. Starten Sie den Computer neu, und öffnen Sie dann erneut die Datei. Wenn weiterhin das rote x angezeigt wird, müssen Sie das Bild möglicherweise löschen und dann erneut einfügen. 2 nd Central European Symposium on Building Physics CESBP 2013, Vienna Research Center Energy & Environment The Energy Turnaround in Europe and its Consequences for Renewable Generation, Energy Infrastructure and end-use Guenther BRAUNER Vienna University of Technology

2 Energy turnaround and its consequences Long term energy strategies in Europe Driving factors for renewable energy Energy Turnaround: fossil energy is replaced by renewable electricity Limitations: renewable potential, end-use efficiency Main sectors of demand: buildings & mobility Roadmap of turnaround: From passive to energy active buildings and settlements From dominant centralized to predominant decentralized Need for integrated planning and restructuring with more complex energy infrastructures View to 2020 and 2050 CESBP 2013 Brauner 2

3 fossil energy demand of today [Statistic Austria] share Anteil of am fossil energetischen energy in end-use Endverbrauch traffic Verkehr; 29,9% Service Dienstl.; 10,4% Landw.; Agric. 2,9% household Haushalt; 30,3% Prod. Industry Bereich; 26,4% Anteile an Mineralölprodukten Share of oil on end-use Dienstl.; Service 3,1% Landw.; Agric. 4,0% Industry Prod. Bereich; 9,9% Verkehr; traffic 63,5% Haushalt; household 19,5% CESBP 2013 Brauner 3

4 Renewable potential is limited: Point of no return to renewable energy caused by unlimited demand Energy point of no return Demand Renewable Potential renewable fossil Point of perception of a problem Ecological Incentives Time CESBP 2013 Brauner 4

5 Reality: Electricity Generation in Austria becomes fossil biogen bio wind fossil hydro Wind thermisch hydraulisch Electrical energy in TWh/a elektrische Energie in GWh/a CESBP 2013 Brauner 5

6 Point of return to renewable: Efficiency and Energy Saving Energy point of no return Demand fossil Renewable potential point of return renewable Efficiency incentives Ecological incentives time CESBP 2013 Brauner 6

7 The energy turnaround in Austria until 2050 research project of climate and energy fonds Austria 2012: Super- for Microgrid 2050 (S4MG) Electricity Generation 2012 TWh/a 2020 TWh/a Potential 2050 TWh/a Hydro power 40, Pumped storage 2,73 2,73 10 Thermal power station 19,82 ancillary services ancillary services Wind energy 2,03 6,0 8 Photovoltaic 0,10 1,3 31 Biomass 4,75 6,00 7 Total generation 69, Austrian Demand 69, CESBP 2013 Brauner 7

8 History of Climate Change Activities and EU Energy Strategy UN FCCC: Kyoto Protocol (decarbonisation) EU Climate Change Package until 2020 (emission reduction, renewable energy, efficiency) EU SET Plan: EU Strategic Energy Technology Plan (reaching the target until 2020) EU National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP, target 2020) CESBP 2013 Brauner 8

9 Change in energy demand of households 2008 to 2050 renewable energy, efficient building, heat pump, electrical car renewable electricity fossil electr. heating car Reduction of energy demand to 30%! CESBP 2013 Brauner 9

10 Electricity demand will increase to 150% (Strategy: fossil energy will be replaced by renewable electricity!) Increasing of electricity demand to 150%! CESBP 2013 Brauner 10

11 EU National Renewable Energy Action Plan, NREAP Development of share of renewable energy EU-27 AT DE FR IT ES Portion Anteil der fo EE renewable an der Elektrizität energy in in % CESBP 2013 Brauner 11

12 RES related to peak load in 2020 demand constant until 2020: 0%/a 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% EE-Spitzenleistung / Spitzenlast Renewable generating power / peak load biomass wind offshore wind onshore tidal hydro CSP PV Geothermal Hydro EU-27 AT DE FR IT ES CESBP 2013 Brauner 12

13 Portion of fluctuating wind and PV in % 120% Solar & Wind / Spitzenlast Solar and wind related to peak load 100% 80% 60% 40% wind offshore wind onshore CSP PV 20% 0% EU-27 AT DE FR IT ES CESBP 2013 Brauner 13

14 Structure of transmission and distribution grid Grid levels Europe 20 GVA Local transmission capacity Wind energy 300 MVA 300 MVA 2x300 MVA 40 MVA 40 MVA 40 MVA 40 MVA 40 MVA Fotovoltaic 0,63 MVA 0,3 MVA 0,3 MVA 0,3 MVA 0,3 MVA CESBP 2013 Brauner 14

15 PV-generation and load in an energy active settlement PV generation Load profile H h CESBP 2013 Brauner 15

16 Residual load (balancing power) in an energy active settlement 1 0,8 Gradient 0,6 0,4 0,2 0-0, ,4 CESBP 2013 Brauner 16

17 Residual load in Germany until 2020 RES Power reaches peak load, less than 1 % of RES cannot be used. Thermal power stations are switched on and off 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 Lastgang total load3. Mi. 21.Jun PV 21 st jun. 21.Dez PV st dec. Residual load: Thermal power station to be shutdown Residual load: Thermal power station to be started CESBP 2013 Brauner 17

18 Operation of power stations 2009 und 2020 (VDE-Simulation) (example weeks in January and July for the years 2009 & 2020) 2009 High base generation by thermal power stations Run-of river Biogas Nuclear Low rank coal District heating Hard coal Gas Oil Wind onshore Wind offshore PV Pumped hydro storage Lod Pumped storage on Not to be used 2020 Base load power stations are substituted by flexible ones Run-of river Biogas Nuclear Low rank coal District heating Hard coal Gas Oil Wind onshore Wind offshore PV Pumped hydro storage Lod Pumped storage on Not to be used Not usable surplus energy: Storage capacities in the grid too small! CESBP 2013 Brauner 18