Global Energy Assessment

Transcription

1 European Sustainable Energy Seminar 2010 Organized by INFORSE-Europe and EREF Brussels, 27 April, 2010 Proceedings: Global Energy Assessment Thomas B Johansson International Insitute for Industrial Environmental Economics, Lund University, Lund, Sweden, and Glöobal Energy Assessement, IIASA, Austria

2 Assessement Process: 25 Knowledge Modules, ~200 authors, geographically diversified Stakeholder consultations External pee rreview

3 GEA Supporting the GEA: International Organizations UNDESA UNDP UNEP UNIDO World Bank IIASA Country Governments/Agencies Austria Brazil European Union Germany Italy Sweden USA Corporations Petrobras TEPCO First Solar Industry groups WEC WBCSD Foundations UN Foundation Climate Works

4 Challenges requiring actions on Energy a. Energy services for growing populations and economies b. access to modern forms of energy (the 2 billion w/o access) c. affordable energy services (@$100/bbl??) d. secure supplies, from households to nations e. local and regional environmental challenges f. climate change mitigation g. ancillary risks => Major Energy System Changes Needed!

5 These challenges must be addressed adequately timely simultaneously

6 Challenges requiring actions on Energy a. Energy services for growing populations and economies b. access to modern forms of energy (the 2 billion w/o access) c. affordable energy services (@$100/bbl??) d. secure supplies, from households to nations e. local and regional environmental challenges f. climate change mitigation g. ancillary risks => Multiple challenges multiple benefits possible

7 Electricity Electricity Electricity for All in the Medium Term (may be achievable) Use of both grid-extension and decentralized systems + conventional and renewable energy technologies Smart use of subsidies and other innovative financing i mechanisms (global effort would be required)

8 Clean Cooking Fuels Multiple benefits: development, situation of women and children, health, mitigation: Biogas, LPG, alcohols, kerosene, electricity Stove efficiency

9 Reasons for Concern The Red Embers 2 o C Source: Smith et al. PNAS, 2009

10 Global emission pathways in compliance with a 2 ºC guardrail (WBGU 2009)

11 this translates into a need for a major energy systems transformation Main elements: Energy end-use efficiency Renewable energies Carbon Capture and Storage (for CC only) Efficiency and Renewables are INSTRUMENTS for addressing all the challenges at the same time!

12 celková en nergie [kwh/m 2 a] % PassivHaus 0 Stávající zástavba Pasivní dům Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings,

13 Example of savings by reconstruction Before reconstruction Reconstruction according to the passive house principle over 150 kwh/(m²a) -90% 15 kwh/(m²a) Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, EEBW2006

14 How far can buildings take us?

15 Mobility and Communication Through Time Letter Horse Hay Agriculture Sunlight Steam Telegraph Electricity it Locomotive Interntet, ICE Mobile Electricity Automobile Phone Convergence 1770s Coal Coal mine Coal fields 1870s Gasoline Oil refinery Crude oil 1970s SMR, Electricity decarbonization Energy, Mobility Hydrogen Information 2070s Electrolysis Natural gas / fossils Biomass Sunlight Wind Source: David Sanborn Scott, 2004 Uranium 15

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17 Technology Uncertainties: Learning Rates and Market Growth Nuclear Reactors France % 0.1% Cost ind ex ($/kw) % interval 90% interval mean learning rate (115 case studies): -20% per doubling PVs Japan % Number of doublings (installed capacity) Source: Grubler & Gritsevskyi, 2002

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20 Global energy transitions

21 World Primary Energy 500 Renewable 400 Microchip Nuclear Energy (E J) 300 Commercial aviation Nuclear energy Gas Primary Steam engine Electric motor Gasoline engine Vacuum tube Television Oil Coal Biomass

22 Can pathways be realised? General: integrating with other social, economic and environmental policies i Balancing markets and governments Investment and finance International cooperation Capacity developmenty and instituion building globally Fostering innovation

23 Key policy tools Criteria: delivering change very fast Politically possible, low risks for politicians and investors Energy end-use efficiency (codes) Renewable energies (feed-in-tariff or others with equivalent performance) Modernized coal and CCS Nuclear (?)

24 Major findings and conclusions Rapidly changing world Energy pivotal Window of opportunity exists Resources and technologies exist Electricity (and hydrogen) growing importance Transformative changes needed Policies and institutions critical

25 Thank you! le Thomas B Johansson Co-Chair, Chair, GEA Executive Committee 25