The spillover effects of unconventional monetary policy measures in major developed countries on developing countries

Transcription

1 The spillover effects of unconventional monetary policy measures in major developed countries on developing countries Tatiana Fic National Institute of Economic and Social Research

2 Objective The objective of this paper is to examine the impact of unconventional monetary policy measures in developed countries US, UK, Euro Area, Japan on developing economies Brazil, China, India, Russia

3 Developing countries have expressed concerns concerning the impact of QE " Quantitative easing policies have triggered a monetary tsunami, have led to a currency war and have introduced new and perverse forms of protectionism in the world." D. Rouseff, President of Brazil, 2012 As a major reserve currency issuer, for the US to launch quantitative easing at this time, we feel that it did not think about the impact of excessive liquidity on emerging markets., Z. Guangyao, Viceminister of Finance, People s Republic of China, 2010 and consequences of an exit from QE With markets now anticipating a reversal, we are seeing a large outward flow from emerging markets... posing problems in many cases. M. Singh, Prime Minister of India, 2013 The worlds advanced economies are beginning to exit their current stimulus policies which can bring negative consequences. We need to mitigate those unwanted consequences. V. Putin, President of Russia, 2013

4 Outline Unconventional monetary policy in the US, UK, Euro Area, and Japan Spillover effects to Brazil, China, India and Russia Methodology The impact of unconventional monetary policy on financial markets The impact of unconventional monetary policy on the real economy Conclusions

5 Conventional and unconventional monetary policy In the face of near-zero interest rates, FED, ECB, BoE and BoJ turned to unconventional monetary policies and began to pursue policies of QE and asset purchases on a large scale Interest rates Centralbank assets (2007Q3=100) Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 Euro Area Japan UK US Euro Area Japan UK US

6 QE in the US and the UK FED and BoE implemented very large QE programmes. They were conducted in 3 rounds in the US, and in 2 rounds in the UK FED assets QE1 QE2 QE BoE assets QE1 QE2 7/30/2007 2/18/ /08/2008 3/30/ /19/ /10/ /29/2010 6/20/ /09/2012 7/30/2012 2/18/2013 7/30/2007 1/21/2008 7/14/ /05/2009 6/29/ /21/2009 6/14/ /06/2010 5/30/ /21/2011 5/14/ /05/2012 4/29/2013 billion USD billion GBP The size of BoE s balance sheet increased fivefold, and that of the FED fourfold.

7 QE in the Euro Area and Japan The scale of asset purchases in the Euro Area and Japan has been smaller in relative terms. ECB assets Bank of Japan assets 3500 LTRO LTRO+QE LTRO+QE private and public assets purchases 0 7/30/2007 1/21/2008 7/14/ /05/2009 6/29/ /21/2009 6/14/ /06/2010 5/30/ /21/2011 5/14/ /05/2012 4/29/2013 billion EUR 0 7/30/2007 1/21/2008 7/14/ /05/2009 6/29/ /21/2009 6/14/ /06/2010 5/30/ /21/2011 5/14/ /05/2012 4/29/2013 trillion YEN The size of the ECB s and BoJ s balance sheet has doubled

8 Global effects of QE The unconventional monetary policies targeted the economies of the US, the UK, the Euro Area and Japan. Through channels such as: global trade, global liquidity and global portfolio rebalancing, they could also have consequences for developing economies such as Brazil, China, India and Russia.

9 QE and the developing economies The impact of QE on the developing economies has probably varied across countries, reflecting several factors: the scale of their exposure to the developed countries (both in terms of trade and financial linkages), their individual cyclical positions, and the type and scale of response of monetary authorities to capital inflows.

10 Methodology Step 1. Event study and statistical analysis to determine the financial market impact of QE Policy announcements concerning QE measures and responses of: long term yields, equity prices, and exchange rates Step 2. Macroeconomic simulations using the National Institute s NiGEM model to determine the impact of QE on the real economy Macroeconomic scenario analysis on the basis of shocks to: long term yields (term premium), equity prices (equity premium), investment premium (to reflect the degree of credit rationing). Shocks calibrated on the basis of Step 1.

11 QE and long term rates in the US, UK, Euro Area and Japan weekly change monthly change quarterly change change between QE rounds a b c d e estimated change between QE rounds Shock I Shock II f=(2a+d+e) /4 g=(a+b+c+ d+e)/5 Calibrated shock Range found in the literature IMF estimate h=closest to f and g i j FED QE from about QE QE to -2.0 BOE QE from -0.5 about QE to ECB BoJ

12 US long rates 10Y government bonds and 3 rounds of QE in the US US long rates QE1 QE2 QE3 7/30/ /22/2007 1/14/ /07/2008 6/30/2008 9/22/ /15/ /09/ /01/2009 8/24/ /16/ /08/ /03/2010 7/26/ /18/ /10/ /04/2011 6/27/2011 9/19/ /12/ /05/2012 5/28/2012 8/20/ /12/ /04/2013 4/29/2013 7/22/2013 Actual Estimated (FED balance sheet) Simple average

13 QE and long term rates in Brazil, China, India, Russia Upper and lower bounds of the response of long term rates in developing countries to QE Global measures of QE from perspective of individual developing countries Upper bound Lower bound Brazil China India Russia Billion BRL Global QE from Brazilian perspective /30/ /07/2008 6/16/ /24/ /04/ /12/2009 3/22/2010 8/30/ /07/2011 7/18/ /26/ /04/ /12/2012 4/22/2013

14 QE and financial markets Equity prices QE has contributed to increases in equity prices in the US, UK, the Euro Area, Brazil, China and India. The impact on equities in Japan and Russia may not have been that strong Change in equity prices US 10 Brazil 10< UK 15 China 10< Euro Area 10 India 5< Japan 0 Russia 0< Exchange rates QE has not been accompanied by a major depreciation of the developed countries currencies, while it has probably led to an appreciation of the Brazilian real. Change in exchange rates US 4 (appreciation) Brazil 10 (appreciation) UK 1 (appreciation) China 0 Euro Area 0 India 10 (depreciation) Japan 6 (appreciation) Russia 15 (depreciation) * In most cases numbers rounded to 5 per cent

15 Macroeconomic impacts of QE To assess the impact of QE on the real economy we run a series of macroeconomic simulations using the global macroeonomic model NiGEM We shock long term rates, equity prices and risk premium (calibrated on the basis of event study analysis) and look at the macroeocnomic impacts for US, UK, Euro Area, Japan and Brazil, China, India and Russia

16 The National Institute s NiGEM model Global quarterly model 40 countries modelled, closed system The same theoretical structure adopted for all country models (supply driven in the long run, demand driven in the short run) Economies are linked together through trade, competitiveness and financial markets NiGEM countries Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, China, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, UK, US Africa, Asia - Far East, Commonwealth and Independent States, Developing Europe, Latin America, Middle East

17 Macroeconomic scenarios Uncoordinated QE scenarios US UK Euro Area Japan Term premium (bp) Equity premium (%) Investment premium (%) What would have happened if: Term premium on long term rates in the US was higher by 125 basis points Equity premium was higher by about 1 percentage point Investment premium was higher by about 1 percentage point (this reflects the degree of credit rationing) FED, BoE, ECB and BoJ introduce QE separately

18 Macroeconomic scenarios Coordinated QE scenarios FED, BoE, ECB and BoJ introduce QE policies in coordination Shocks to financial markets in developed countries - as above There is also an immediate reaction of financial markets in developing countries Brazil China India Russia Term premium (bp) Investment premium (also captures effects of equity prices) (pp)

19 Coordinated scenario We assume that: all countries introduce QE at the same time the duration of unconventional monetary policy shocks is 5 years the conventional monetary policy is deactivated for 5 years We solve the model and look at the macroeconomic impacts on: US, UK, Euro Area, Japan Brazil, China, India and Russia

20 Coordinated scenario (counterfactual) What would have happened if there was no QE? GDP impact Term premium effects Equity and investment premia effects Inflation impact Term premium effects Equity and investment premia effects * Deviation from baseline, average over 5 years

21 Conclusions The scale of unconventional monetary policies has been unprecedented The impact on the financial markets decreases in long term yields in the US, UK, Euro Area, Japan and Brazil, China, India and Russia, increases in equity prices in the majority of analysed countries (with the exception of Japan and Russia), and appreciation of the Brazilian real (no depreciation effects in the developed countries) The impact on the real economy : The biggest effects for the US and the UK Smaller effects for the developing economies, with the exception of Brazil due to relatively strong reaction of the Brazilian financial markets.

22 Conclusions In terms of a QE exit strategy: The impacts on the developing economies will probably depend on: The sentiment in the international financial markets Developing countries macroeconomic situation (and the size of their output gap) Potential policy actions aimed at managing increased capital outflows It seems that the real effects can be limited, however, this will depend on whether the unwinding of QE is conducted in a coordinated manner to avoid financial markets turmoil

23 Thank you National Institute of Economic and Social Research

24 Policy context QE has had an impact on developed and developing economies " Quantitative easing policies have triggered a monetary tsunami, have led to a currency war and have introduced new and perverse forms of protectionism in the world." President Rouseff of Brazil (2012) An exit from QE can also have global implications With markets now anticipating a reversal, we are seeing a large outward flow from emerging markets... posing problems in many cases. Prime Minister of India, M. Singh, 2013 As a major reserve currency issuer, for the US to launch quantitative easing at this time, we feel that it did not think about the impact of excessive liquidity on emerging markets., Zhu Guangyao, Viceminister of Finance, People s Republic of China, 2010 The worlds advanced economies are beginning to exit their current stimulus policies which can bring negative consequences. We need to mitigate those unwanted consequences. President V. Putin of Russia, 2013

25 QE and long term rates in Brazil, China, India, Russia Global measures of QE from perspective of individual developing countries Lower and upper bounds of the response of long term rates in developing countries to QE Billion BRL Global QE from Brazilian perspective Lower bound Upper bound Brazil China India Russia /30/ /07/2008 6/16/ /24/ /04/ /12/2009 3/22/2010 8/30/ /07/2011 7/18/ /26/ /04/ /12/2012 4/22/2013

26 Uncoordinated scenarios Developed countries Developing countries