Steady increase of global market value

Transcription

1

2 Steady increase of global market value (in Billion US$) 176 $180 Other project-based Other allowances Secondary CER Primary CER post-2012 $120 Primary CER pre-2013 EU Allowances 63 $ $

3 EU and other markets increasing value (in Billion US$) post-2012 CDM % New Zealand % N. America % +12% Secondary CDM + JI 23.1 pre-2013 CDM 1.0 JI AAU EU ETS Allowances % -36% -49% +11%

4 EU ETS: how to deal with oversupply EUA, secondary CER & primary CER prices ( per tco 2 e) 27 EUA Secondary CER Primary CER Oversupplied Phases II + III reflected in historic low prices Increasing trading volumes as demand shrinks: financially-driven trades 7 2 Policy intervention under discussion to deal with the imbalance: supply set-aside

5 An emerging post-2013 CDM market 8,000 Pre-2013 and post-2012 market values (US$ million) Pre-2013 market closing and a post-2012 market emerging 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Pre-2013 CER Post-2012 CER EU ETS oversupply and uncertain non-eu eligibility criteria and volumes lead to weak contractual obligations Provisional safety clauses Quasi-options More prominent Africa as buyers seek risk management and portfolio diversification

6 annual volume of CDM&JI transactions (MtCO 2 e) CDM & JI Buyers (pre-2013) Other & Unsp. Other Europe UK Switzerland UK 40% Other Europe 4% Other & Unsp. 7% Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain Japan Switzerland 23% Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden 6% Japan 1% France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain 19% Other Europe includes Ireland, Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Iceland and Greece. Other and Unsp. include s USA, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Rep. of Korea, and others unspecified.

7 CDM Buyers (post-2012) Switzerland 27% UK 29% Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden 24% Other Europe 2% Japan 3% South Korea 3% France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain 12% Switzerland 22% Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden 19% UK 26% Other & Unsp. 2% Other Europe 3% South Korea 3% France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain 23% Japan 2% Other Europe includes Ireland, Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Iceland and Greece. Other and Unsp. include s USA, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Rep. of Korea, and others unspecified.

8 Pre-2013 volumes transacted (MtCO2e) Who s selling pre-2013? Other & Unsp. Africa Latin America Others Asia China 2011 Others Asia 7% China 87% Africa 4% Latin America 2%

9 Who s selling post-2012? India 6% Vietnam 11% India 5% Vietnam 7% Others Asia 13% China 51% Others Asia 9% Latin America 3% DRC 4% China 43% Latin America 11% DRC 5% Nigeria 1% Nigeria 2% Others Africa 9% South Africa 6% Others Africa 13% South Africa 1%

10 pre-2013 volumes transacted (MtCO2e) CDM Sectors pre Other & Unsp LFG + waste mng't E.E. + Fuel switch Renewables Industrial gas CMM and other fugitive 9% LFG and other waste mg't 11% N 2 O 1% HFC 3% Others 6% Hydro 26% E.E. + Fuel switch 7% Other Renewables 2% Biomass energy 5% Wind 30%

11 CDM Sectors post CMM and other fugitive 2% LFG and other waste mg't 11% N 2 O 3% Other 4% Hydro 34% CMM and other fugitive 6% N 2 O 3% Other 6% Hydro 26% EE+Fuel switch 12% LFG and other waste mg't 14% Other Renewables 4% Biomass energy 10% Wind 23% EE+Fuel switch 16% Other Renewables 6% Biomass energy 8% Wind 16%

12 New data shows demand until GtCO 2 e Demand: 1.64 billion tco 2 e AAU 0.28 Gt 290 MtCO 2 e, mostly from EU governments Supply: 2.6 billion CERs & ERUs million AAUs = 2.6 Gt 1.43 GtCO 2 e 0.28 Gt AAU 1.64 GtCO 2 e 2.86 GtCO 2 e (nominal) = 1.43 GtCO 2 e (riskadjusted) CDM & JI 1.2 Gt CDM & JI Aggregate picture; not all buyers purchased the volume they need Contracted (nominal) Contracted (riskadjusted) Demand for Kyoto Assets Residual demand: 290 MtCO 2 e (136 Mt in 2011)

13 Who buys until 2012 (+3y for govs.) Potential demand Contracted CERs and ERUs AAUs/RMUs Residual demand nominal Adjusted for performance (MtCO 2 e) (MtCO 2 e) (MtCO 2 e) (MtCO 2 e) (MtCO 2 e) EU 1,293 2, Government (EU-15) Private sector (EU 865 1, ETS) Japan Government of Japan Japanese private sector Rest of Annex B and others (-73) Government Private sector (-1) Total 1,644 2,584 1, Government Private sector 1,070 2,

14 MtCO 2 e Market projections indicate constrained demand over Other Annex B** Japan Australia EU gov* 4000 EU ETS CDM others CDM ETS-eligible GtCO 2 e Maximum demand (conservative scenario) *Including Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway ** Including New Zealand, North America, and Switzerland Supply

15 Regulatory improvements & new markets popping up worldwide Durban decisions increased the regulatory clarity on existing market and advanced on new market instruments Several jurisdictions passed climate bills, including market initiatives Australia, California, Quebec, Republic of Korea, Mexico New initiatives signal that solutions to the climate challenge will emerge.

16 Thank you Full report available at