Property investment in an international perspective

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1 Property investment in an international perspective Presentation to Asset Allocation Netværket, Den Danske Finansanalytikerforening 10 June 2013 Tonny Nielsen, Head of Investment Management Nordic & Eastern Europe Aberdeen Asset Management Denmark For professional use only Not for public distribution

2 Agenda Aberdeen Asset Management Why invest in property? Denmark/Nordics in an international perspective How to invest into property direct vs. Indirect 1

3 Aberdeen Asset Management 2

4 About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen is a pure asset management company listed on the FTSE 100 Experienced management team AuM of 251.1bn and market capitalisation of 6.4bn Geographically diverse 31 offices across the world 2,000 staff including over 500 investment professionals worldwide Significant equity ownership by management and staff (6.1%* directly or through long-term incentive plans) Investment expertise drawn from the three main asset classes: equities, fixed income and property, as well as tailored investment solutions Transparent investment processes * Fully diluted Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, 31 Mar 13 A diversified and global business 3

5 Aberdeen s property capabilities Markets invested Key offices Edinburgh Copenhagen London Amsterdam Brussels Frankfurt Paris Luxembourg Helsinki Oslo Stockholm Milan International fund manager with local presence: Around 300 property investment professionals globally 21.9 billion¹ property assets under management Fourth largest property fund manager in Europe² Full product range: Direct property funds (segregated or pooled) Funds of funds (segregated or pooled) Comprehensive resources: Fund, asset and property management Deal sourcing and transactions Research and investment strategy Development and refurbishment Financial administration Philadelphia Singapore Mar 13, includes externally managed Aberdeen property funds 2. Source: INREV/ANREV Fund Manager Survey, Jul 12 4

6 Why invest in property? 5

7 Why invest in property? Attractive returns including high cash returns High, yearly cash return compared to bond yields with limited increase of risk Property return split market yield Diversification to other main asset classes Low correclation to bonds market rental value location attactiveness lease profile Capital growth Stock like capital return Partly inflation hedge real asset The net income is partly inflation hedged due to indexlinked lease contracts Fairly stable, yearly cash returns Typically long investment horizon due to liquidity and transaction costs Net rental income Income Return Partly inflation hedge Possible to add value through active asset management Bond like yield Local expertise and experience is crucial Source: Aberdeen Asset Management. There can be no guarantee for returns and diversification from investment into property Now the new normal coming over the next few years post-realisation will be: fixed income 30%, equities 35%, absolute return 10% and real estate 25%; the latter coming from 10% Joseph Azelby, MD and Head of Global Assets, JP Morgan 6

8 Denmark/Nordics in an international perspective 7

9 Why invest non-domestically in property? Domestic property allocation Non-domestic property allocation 1) Higher risk-adjusted returns Core, low leverage Income-producing Quality assets Property approach OR 2) Higher returns Value added/ opportunistic Private equity approach How you might invest globally determines whether you should invest globally, on what basis and what outcome you can expect 8

10 The global property markets Most investors can benefit from exposure to the wider non-domestic opportunity set Share of global property market (2011)*, % Share of global property market (2011), % Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Italy Japan Korea Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Spain Sweden UK 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% Americas 41% Europe 38% Eurozone 22% Asia Pacific 20% UK 7% Nordics 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% * Does not show United States that makes up 38% of the global property market, 2011 Source: IPD,

11 Good stock selection reveals opportunities in every market Range of asset total returns 2011 (%) th percentile 25 th percentile Median 75 th percentile 95 th percentile UK France Spain Sweden Source: Aberdeen Asset Management; IPD, May 2012 Past performance is not a guide to the future Top 25% of assets in Spain outperformed 50% of French assets in

12 Why invest in Nordic property? A transparent, sizeable and outperforming market JLL s transparency index United States 2. United Kingdom 3. Australia 4. Netherlands 5. New Zealand 6. Canada 7. France 8. Finland 9. Sweden 10. Switzerland 11. Hong Kong 12. Germany 13. Singapore 14. Denmark 15. Ireland 16. Spain 17. Belgium 18. Norway 19. Poland 20. Italy Tier 1: HIGH TRANSPARENCY Tier 2: TRANSPARENT European property market sizes* ( bn) Ireland Hungary Czech Portugal Poland Austria Spain Belgium Italy Netherlands Switzerland Nordics France Germany UK EUR 225 bn IPD "All property" index returns Observed std. Deviation Total return p.a. Pan-Europe Global Finland Sweden Denmark Norway 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% * Professionally managed stock, estimated by IPD figures. Sources: IMF, Eurostat, IPD, Aberdeen Asset Management The Nordics account for 15% of the European property market and should be a natural part of a diversified European property portfolio 11

13 Budget balance, % of GDP 2012 Why invest in Nordic property? Strong public finances and highly competitive economies Public finances Norway SGP max debt* The Economist: Top of the class, 2012 rankings Overall rank Country Global competitive -ness Ease of doing business Global innovation Corruption perceptions Human development Prosperity 1 Sweden Denmark Finland Norway Switzerland New Zealand Singapore Switzerland Estonia Germany Sweden Luxembourg Finland Austria Iceland Italy Denmark Netherlands Belgium Portugal France UK Ireland Spain Greece SGP max deficit* 8 United States Netherlands Canada Hong Kong Australia Britain Germany Ireland Public gross debt, % of GDP 2012 * The Stability and Growth Pact from 1997 states that member countries of the Euro area should not have an annual budget deficit of more than 3% and national debt should not exceed 60% of GDP Source: IMF, April 2013, The Economist February 2013 Low debt, balanced budgets, high competitiveness and AAA-ratings on public credit creates attractive investment fundamentals 12

14 Copenhagen Helsinki Oslo Stockholm Why invest in Nordic property? An attractive yield gap, but debt financing is a challenge Prime and secondary office yields Q1 13 (%) year real govt bond* Prime yield Grade B inner city Grade B outer city All-in financing costs as of Q1 13** (%) Local 5 year swap rates Indicative average margin 5, ,00 6,25 5,25 8,75 7,25 7,50 7,75 6,50 6,25 5,50 5,35 4,75 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 3,25 2,50 2, ,5 1,0 0,5 0,75 1,10 0,80 2,50 1,70 0,0 Denmark Finland Norway Sweden * Nominal bond yields minus inflation target ** For new loans on average core properties Source: Nordea, Jones Lang LaSalle, Aberdeen Asset Management Nordic banks are in a healthy shape, but funding is expensive due to the euro crisis and stricter regulations for European banks As fundamentals remain stable, attractive opportunities are likely to arise in the next 6-12 months, as many potential buyers will struggle to find debt financing 13

15 The Nordics and Northern Europe expected to outperform Total return forecast, five year rolling from end Q (% per annum) Finland Poland Ireland Belgium Norway Sweden Czech Republic UK Germany France Eurozone Denmark Hungary Netherlands Spain Italy Portugal Nordics CEE S. Europe/Ireland Core -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, April 2013 Note: All figures are for portfolios of assets, unleveraged, in local currency There is no guarantee that return forecasts will be met. Forecasts are based on a number of assumptions including capital and rental growth assumptions. Retail and logistics are projected to outperform offices 14 Private and confidential

16 Property market forecasts at Aberdeen Economic forecasts 5 year view GDP Inflation Consumer spending Unemployment Employment Interest rates Output Bottom-up expertise Forecasts on rents and yields Regression models Updated quarterly Country/sector forecasts (IPD type) City forecasts (prime) 5 year view Cash flow model Model property markets IPD or city level Lease structures Capex Vacancies Indexation Income growth Income return Capital growth Total return Over- and underpricing Risk tolerance Short term indicators of capital values 5 year view Global research team Fund teams Investment sentiment Occupier sentiment Transaction evidence Property market data Treasury surveys Source: Aberdeen Asset Management 15 Private and confidential

17 Source; Aberdeen Asset Management, April There can be no guarantee for future returns. European property market strategy Sectors Some prime office markets risk overheating, as investors seek alternatives to low yielding government and corporate bonds There is better value in the retail and industrial sectors The re-emergence of residential across Europe Style Investors should employ a selective investment strategy and seek property with defensive characteristics with durable / sustainable income Supermarkets and dominant retail parks are good examples of such assets Geography The short-term outlook remains strongest in Germany and the Nordics We would argue that the underlying fundaments of how one invests in the Nordics are often stronger than for Germany 16 Private and confidential

18 How to invest into property Direct versus indirect investments 17

19 Direct vs. indirect property investments Direct ownership Indirect ownership (through funds) Investment perspective Decisions on property level ( hands on ) Investment decision on a higher level Focus on allocation on asset classes (stocks, bonds, property, alternatives) Diversification Medium / limited Higher degree of diversification Economies of scale Medium / limited Higher degree of economies of scale leads to better cost saving and optimisation Internal ressources Management of property ( hands on ) Direct and indirect efforts -> cost not 100% measurable Management of investments Board / Advisory committee membership Asset Management Potential conflict of interest with certain tenants as related parties 100% focus on value creation Arms length Objective investment criteria without conflict of interest Investment horizon Specific for the individual investor Open-ended with redemption possibility Closed-ended with agreed termination date Exit possibilities Increase/decrease exposure to property investments Divestment of properties Residual property risk Purchase/sale of properties Long transaction process: Screening, negotiation, due diligence and closing Sale of properties reduces diversification Divestment of shares Typically redemption rights No residual property risk Purchase/sale of shares Unchanged diversification Source: Aberdeen Asset Management 18

20 Disclaimer For professional investors only Not for use by retail investors Issued by Aberdeen Asset Management Denmark. Registered Office: Strandvejen 58, DK-2900 Hellerup This document is strictly for information purposes and should not be considered as an offer or solicitation to deal in any of the investments mentioned herein. Aberdeen does not warrant the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the information and materials contained in this document and expressly disclaim liability for errors or omissions in such information and materials. Any research or analysis used in the preparation of this document has been procured by Aberdeen for its own use and may have been acted on for its own purpose. The results thus obtained are made available only coincidentally and the information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Some of the information in this document may contain projections or other forward looking statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries, markets or companies. These statements are only predictions and actual events or results may differ materially. Readers must make their own assessment of the relevance, accuracy and adequacy of the information contained in this document and carry out such independent investigations as they consider necessary or appropriate for the purpose of such assessment. Any opinion or estimate contained in this document is made on a general basis and is not to be relied on by the reader as advice. Neither Aberdeen nor any of its employees, associated group companies or agents have given any consideration to, or made any investigation of, the investment objectives, financial situation or particular need of the reader, any specific person or group of persons. Accordingly, no warranty is given and no liability is accepted for any loss arising, whether directly or indirectly, as a result of the reader or any person or group of persons acting on any information, opinion or estimate contained in this document. Aberdeen reserves the right to make changes and corrections to any information in this document at any time, without notice. Property is a relatively illiquid asset class, the valuation of which is a matter of opinion. There is no recognised market for property and there can be delays in realising the value of assets. The capital value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up, and an investor may get back less than the amount originally invested. Past performance is not a guide to the future. Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each investor and may be subject to change in the future. Professional advice should be obtained before making any investment decision. 19

21 Tak For professional use only Not for public distribution

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