SKAGEN Vekst. Status as of

Transcription

1 SKAGEN Vekst Status as of

2 Why SKAGEN Vekst? Balanced portfolio adapted to Norwegian investors Better geographic spread than pure Norwegian fund Better industry balance than a Norwegian fund = lower risk than Oslo Stock Exchange Companies which are undervalued compared to values and earnings with good revaluation potential Never either Norway or abroad, always both, thank you very much Foreign part of fund complements Norwegian companies: Type of companies not found on Oslo Stock Exchange Lower valued companies with higher quality than found on Oslo Stock Exchange = high risk adjusted return

3 Markets YTD 2005 in NOK as of 30/11 Russia + 88 % Turkey + 68 % Brazil + 61 % South-Korea + 61 % Mexico + 52 % Estonia + 46 % India + 40 % Emerging Markets Index + 40 % Austria + 39 % SKAGEN Vekst + 39 % Canada + 35 % Hungary + 34 % Norway (OSEBX) + 33 % Poland + 30 % South-Africa + 29 % Switzeland + 25 % Denmark + 24 % Japan + 23 % World Index + 20 % Singapore + 19 % China (Hong Kong) + 18 % Germany + 18 % Hong Kong + 17 % Netherlands + 16 % France + 16 % USA (SP500) + 15 % Finland + 15 % USA (Nasdaq) + 14 % England + 13 % Sweden + 13 % Indonesia + 13 % Spain + 12 % Belgium + 12 % Italy + 7 % Taiwan + 6 % Thailand + 5 % China (local) - 1/-4%

4 Market development 4th Quarter to date in NOK as of 30/11 Turkey + 17 % South-Korea + 10 % Mexico + 9 % Switzerland + 9 % Indonesia + 7 % Japan + 7 % USA (Nasdaq) + 7 % Russia + 6 % USA (SP500) + 5 % Netherlands + 5 % Emerging Markets Index + 4 % World Index + 4 % Germany + 4 % Taiwan + 3 % Brazil + 3 % Belgium + 3 % Singapore + 3 % Austria + 2 % Poland + 2 % Canada + 1 % Denmark + 1 % Sweden + 1 % South-Africa + 1 % India 0 % France 0 % England 0 % Hong Kong 0 % SKAGEN Vekst - 1 % Estonia - 1 % Italy - 1 % China (Hong Kong) - 1 % Spain - 1 % China (local) - 2 % Finland - 3 % Norway (OSEBX) - 4 % Thailand - 5 % Hungary - 8 %

5 Results as of 30/ in SEK YTD 2005: SKAGEN Vekst % OSE Benchmark Index % World Index (NOK) %

6 Results sub-portfolios as of 30/ YTD 2005: Norwegian part of SKAGEN Vekst + 41,8% Global part of SKAGEN Vekst + 46,2% OSE Benchmark Index + 32,8% World Index (NOK) + 20,0% 4th Quarter 2005 to date: Norwegian part of SKAGEN Vekst - 5,4% Global part of SKAGEN Vekst + 4,1% OSE Benchmark Index - 4,2% World Index (NOK) + 4,0% Gross portfolio returns (fees, currency gain/loss and net interest not included)

7 SKAGEN Vekst Relative development Norway/abroad 2005 PERFORMANCE 25 Relative performance Abroad PERCENT Period Relative performance Norway

8 SKAGEN Vekst Relative development Norway/abroad last 3 years PERFORMANCE Relative performance Abroad PERCENT Period Relative performance Norway

9 Contributors YTD 2005 SKAGEN Vekst Norsk Hydro 135 m Samsung Electronics 106 m Bonheur 99 m Nutreco Holding 84 m Petrobras 82 m Ganger Rolf 68 m Wilh. Wilhelmsen 68 m Korean Re 64 m Stolt-Nielsen 63 m C G Geophysique 61 m Norske Skog - 32 m SunMicrosystems - 8 m Korea Line - 7 m Kinnevik - 6 m Natuzzi - 5 m Pfizer - 5 m Kverneland - 4 m Hyundai Merchant M. - 5 m Sum value added: m m= MNOK

10 Contributors to date 4th Quarter 2005 SKAGEN Vekst Boliden 24 m Sabanci Holding 16 m Lerøy Seafood Gr. 15 m Samsung Electronics 13 m Telkom Indonesia 11 m Korean Re 10 m Furukawa Electric 10 m Pride Intl 10 m P&O Steamship 9 m Korean Air 9 m Norsk Hydro - 35 m Stolt-Nielsen - 33 m Seadrill - 24 m Yara - 24 m Q-free - 20 m Global IP Sound - 16 m Korea Line - 15 m Solstad Offshore - 15 m Smedvig - 13 m Fairmount Heavy Tr m Sum value added: m m=mnok

11 Bought Changes to date 4th Quarter 2005 SKAGEN Vekst Sold Norske Skog Deep Ocean Odim (new) Solstad Offshore Crew Gold Norgani Hotels (new) Net changes > 10 MNOK Bank Austria (out) P&O Steamship TDC (out) Bergesen B (forced redemption) Samsung Electronics Furukawa Electric Bucher Industries Dong-A Pharmaceutical (out) Hansol Paper (out) Korean Re Sabanci Holding

12 SKAGEN Vekst Main holdings as of 30/ Norsk Hydro 5,4% Norske Skog 3,6% Samsung Electronics (South-Korea) 3,6% Stolt Nielsen 2,9% Wilh. Wilhelmsen 2,9% Bonheur 2,7% Nutreco (Netherlands) 2,6% Solstad Offshore 2,3% Pride Intl. (USA) 2,3% Yara Intl. 2,3% Cash - 1,2% SUM top 10: 30.6 percent (down from 31.1 percent as of 31/12-04)

13 SKAGEN Vekst Pricing main holdings as of 30/ P/B P/E 05e Price target Norsk Hydro (675,5) 1, Norske Skog (98,5) 0, Samsung Electronics pref.(451 ) 1, Stolt Nielsen (220,5) 2, Wilh. Wilhelmsen (219,5) 2, Bonheur (540) 1, Nutreco (36,5) 1, Solstad Offshore (90) 1, Pride Intl (29,8) 2, Yara International (103,5) 2, Average top 10 1,8 14,5 > 15%

14 Compared to book equity, Oslo industrials are within the band

15 Norwegian oil related companies capital returns are record high due to good framework conditions %UHQW FUXGHRLOSULFH Brent crude oilprice 6RXUFH(FR: LQ

16 Compared to company earnings, companies on the Oslo Stock Exchange are not more expensive this year (Source: First Sec.) OSEBX/INDX: Index value vs Recurring EPS EPS Recurring EPS Index value OSEBX Source: EcoWin

17 Compared to earnings, equity valuations on the Oslo Stock Exchange are on the historical average (source: First Sec.) 27.5 PE 12 Month Fwd Stoxx 600 S&P PE OSEBX Source: EcoWin

18 This is in spite of record low interest, both globally and in Norway USA Government Bonds Nominell Nominal interest rente, vs. realrente interest + 5 last siste years års inflation inflasjon Upper Øvre band bånd 4% 4% real realrente interest Lower Nedre band bånd: 2% 2% real realrente interest 3 FIRST Source: EcoWin

19 Low interest, combined with strong balance sheets and low equity valuations should lead to increased aquisition activity (Source:FirstSec.) Stoxx 600 P/E 12 month forward vs Euro bond yield Bond yield on reverse scale Bond yield P/E Source: EcoWin

20 Threats Increased inflation expectations ==) higher bond interest. Raw materials and freight price increases ==) increased inflation. High capacity utilisation in China ==) increased inflation. Tightening of China s monetary policy what about the currency? Increased real interest ==) higher bond interest. Increased risk premium (is at a low level especially in emerging markets). Slow down of economic upswing due to lower consumer demand in US. Margin pressure among several companies due to rising raw material costs. Higher energy prices (subdues global growth). Worse framework conditions for Norwegian businesses after General Election? Fear of tightening of US monetary policy (too high interest rateincreases). USD going down the drain? Competition-distorting

21 Opportunities Better economic development than market s relatively low expectations Asia will continue to be driving force for global growth. New investment cycle within raw materials and energy many capacity ceilings have been reached. Strong likelihood of increase in prices where equity markets valuation of companies is lowest (Asia, Europe and South America). Liquidity driven equity market (low rate of return required). Institutional owners have small units of shares. Improvement in earnings Increased activity within acquisitions/mergers. Moderate valuation of our portfolio companies.

22 Summary market outlook Follows pattern of the 1980s and the 1990s Continued tight energy market but oil price could drop more Continued economic growth trend globally Strong growth in Asia (especially in China and India) and emerging markets Possibility of positive stimulation from Japan and Europe US dependency being reduced No major inflation surprises Increasing base rate, but selective Risk premium within trend Volatility within trend Continued high capital returns for companies Moderate valuations Increasing economic uncertainty, but selective Globally good investment climate