Outlook for the Norwegian and global economies. Deputy Governor Jan F. Qvigstad 13 september 2012

Transcription

1 Outlook for the Norwegian and global economies Deputy Governor Jan F. Qvigstad 3 september

2 Market uncertainty still high Yields on -year government bonds. Percent 8 8 US Germany UK Spain Italy Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Source: Bloomberg

3 Euro area three challenges Borrowing costs down to sustainable levels 3

4 OMT expectations reversed trend in yields -year government bond yields for Spain, Italy and Germany 8 Draghi remarks about bond purchases OMT announcement..3.. Spain Italy Germany -. Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- -. Source: Bloomberg

5 Euro area three challenges Borrowing costs down to sustainable levels Break the link between banks and government debt 5

6 Euro area three challenges Borrowing costs down to sustainable levels Break the link between banks and government debt Weak developments in real economy

7 Key macroeconomic variables for selected countries Year Budget balance in percent of GDP Public debt in percent of GDP Current account balance in percent of GDP US Japan UK EMU Sources: IMF WEO April and EU Commission spring forecast 7

8 Weak GDP for trading partners trading partners. Quarterly growth in percent - - GDP Projections MPR / - - Q¹) )Data from 85 percent of trading partners and projections from MPR / for the remaining 5 percent Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank -3 8

9 Contraction in the euro area, moderate growth in the US Quarterly growth in percent and diffusion index around 5 for PMI and ISM Euro area GDP (left-hand scale) PMI manufacturing (right-hand scale) 5 55 US GDP (left-hand scale) ISM manufacturing (right-hand scale) Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank 9

10 Declining growth in China Annual growth. Percent 8 GDP (left-hand scale) Manufacturing (right-hand scale) Source: Thomson Reuters

11 Low key rates abroad Actual and expected key rates). Percent 5 US Euro area²) UK MPR / 3 August ) Based on Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates. Daily figures from January 8 and quarterly figures from Q3 ) EONIA in euro area from Q Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

12 Rise in oil and commodities prices Oil price Brent Blend. USD/barrel Commodities Index. January 7 = 5 3 Aluminium Copper Wheat Cotton Source: Thomson Reuters

13 8 8 The krone is strong I- ) I- Projections MPR / Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- ) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate Source: Norges Bank 3

14 The krone is strong I- ) 8 8 I- 98 I- SEK EUR USD Projections MPR / Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- ) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate Source: Norges Bank

15 Banks lending margins Percent 7 Key policy rate 7 7 Money market rate 7 Money market rate Risk premium 5-year covered bonds Risk premium 5-year bank bonds Key policy rate Average interest rate on corporate loans Jun-9 Jun- Jun- Jun- Jun-9 Jun- Jun- Jun- ) Nominal interest rate on new residential mortgages of NOK m within percent of purchase price Sources: DNB Markets, Norsk familieøkonomi, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 5

16 Activity in the Norwegian economy remains high GDP mainland Norway ) and Norges Bank s regional network s indicator of change in production ). Percent Regional network Mainland GDP growth ) Seasonally adjusted quarterly change. Volume ) Past three months and expected change in production next six months. Annualised. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank s regional network

17 Norges Bank s regional network Established in REGION NORTH-WEST Møreforsking Molde Molde REGION SOUTH-WEST IRIS Stavanger REGION NORTH Kunnskapsparken Bodø Bodø REGION CENTRAL NORWAY Center for Economic Research, NUST REGION INLAND Østlandsforskning Lillehammer REGION EAST Norges Bank REGION SOUTH Agderforskning Kristiansand Important source of data for Norges Bank s Executive Board in its conduct of monetary policy Provides accurate forecasts well before official statistics are available The next report will be presented on 7 October Source: Norges Bank 7

18 Regional network phone survey in August Output growth has been approximately as expected in May Overall market prospects appear to be largely unchanged since May Developments in employment have been broadly as expected Capacity utilisation appears to have picked up slightly since May 8

19 Two-speed developments in Norway Change in production past three months and expected change in production next six months. Annualised Export industry Suppliers to the petroleum industry (Norwegian continental shelf) Source: Norges Bank s regional network 9

20 High growth in household consumption of goods Seasonally adjusted volume index Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

21 House prices Nominal terms, seasonally adjusted. Index. 995 Q = Denmark Spain Norway Sweden US Source: Federal Reserve, Dallas

22 High population growth and low residential construction rate Yearly figures ) Difference between number of housing completions and increase in households (left-hand scale) Population growth (right-hand scale) ) Projection for Source: Statistics Norway

23 Low inflation -month change. Percent 3 CPI CPIXE CPI-ATE 3 9 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 3

24 Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario with probability distribution Percent. 8 Q 5 Q % 5% 7% 9% Source: Norges Bank

25 Outlook for the Norwegian and global economies Deputy Governor Jan F. Qvigstad 3 september