Greek banks and corporate funding costs

Transcription

1 NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE Greek banks and corporate funding costs January 214 Paul Mylonas CRO & Chief Economist National Bank of Greece NBG: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT Economic Analysis Department

2 Roadmap High corporate lending rates in Greece The role of credit risk premia The role of liquidity premia Lending rate decomposition Outlining the path to lower rates NBG: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT p.2

3 High loan rates in Greece mainly reflect high credit and liquidity risk premia Interest rate on corporate loans Cost of credit Cost of capital Bank funding cost/liquidity premia OPEX Macroeconomic conditions & Uncertainty Monetary policy Sovereign risk Corporate profitability Collateral valuations Asset quality NBG: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT p.3

4 Greece has much higher loan rates to enterprises than other euro area countries, especially in real terms High risk premialead to a disconnect between market rates and lending rates while accelerating disinflation amplified the discrepancy with the euro area, in terms of real lending costs 1 8 nominal interest rates (new business) (%) 1 8 1, 8, real interest rates %, HICP deflated 1, 8, 6 6 6, 6, 4 4 4, 4, 2 2 2, 2,,, , -2, Jan-3 Oct-3 Jul-4 Apr- Jan-6 Oct-6 Jul-7 Apr-8 Jan-9 Oct-9 Jul-1 Apr-11 Jan-12 Oct-12 Jul-13 Jan-3 Nov-3 Sep-4 Jul- May-6 Mar-7 Jan-8 Nov-8 Sep-9 Jul-1 May-11 Mar-12 Jan-13 Nov-13 EA, loans to non-financial corporations Greece, loans to non-financial corporations 3-month euribor Greece, loans to non-financial corporations, real Euro area, loans to non-financial corporations, real Source: Bank of Greece, ECB, ELSTAT NBG: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT p.4

5 The crisis resulted in severe asset quality deterioration and high provisions (cost of risk) The NPL ratio has climbed to unprecedented levels and prompted a sharp increase in provisions for potentially impaired loans NPL ratio, in per cent of gross loans per category 31% in Q3: per cent % 34bn Q1:28 Q3:28 Q1:29 Q3:29 Q1:21 Q3:21 Q1:211 Q3:211 Q1:212 Q3:212 Q1:213 Q3:22 Q3:23 Q3:24 Q3:2 Q3:26 Q3:27 Q3:28 Q3:29 Q3:21 Q3:211 Q3:212 Q3:213 Consumer Mortgages NPL ratio total Unemployment rate Corp. & SBLs Total Source: BoG, NBG estimates Source: Bank of Greece Source: Bank of Greece, ELSTAT Source: Bank of Greece NBG: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT p.

6 Lending rate differentials reflect high credit risk premiaand an across-the-board risk re-pricing Lending rates and country/business specific credit risk Collateral valuations are also feeding into lending costs 12 Greece 12 Moody s expected default frequencies of publicly traded firms % =1, index % Q1:28 Q3:28 Q1:29 Q3:29 Q1:21 Q3:21 Q1:211 Q3:211 Q1:212 Q3:212 Q1:213 Q3:213 Residential prices Effective commercial prices Source: ECB, EUROSTAT, IMF, Moody s Source: Bank of Greece & NBG estimates NBG: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT p.6

7 A sharp, and largely uncertainty-driven, drop in bank deposits Deposits fell by 1bn, equivalent to about ½ of 213 GDP far in excess of other programme countries Private sector deposits Total deposits bn % index level = 1 at 29, aop data Nov-3 Jun-4 Jan- Aug- Mar-6 Oct-6 May-7 Dec-7 Jul-8 Feb-9 Sep-9 Apr-1 Nov-1 Jun-11 Jan-12 Aug-12 Mar-13 Oct-13 Private sector deposits (euro, bn, left axis) Private sector deposits (% GDP, right axis) Spain Italy Greece (Oct) Ireland Portugal Source: Bank of Greece Source: ECB NBG: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT p.7

8 amplified liquidity shortages, despite ECB support ratio Loan to -to-deposit ratio Greek banking system dependence on Eurosystem Dec-1 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Greece Euro area (212 est.) Source: Bank of Greece Source: Bank of Greece and NBG estimates NBG: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT p.8

9 and fed into bank funding costs Nominal interest rate on bank deposits with agreed maturity up to 1 year (outstanding amounts) Marginal cost of new time deposits vsinterest rate on outstanding amount 6 6 % Greece Sep-2 Jun-3 Mar-4 Dec-4 Sep- Jun-6 Mar-7 Dec-7 Sep-8 Jun-9 Mar-1 Jul-1 Apr-11 Jan-12 Oct-12 Jul-13 Germany Spain Portugal Greece Time deposit rate (outstanding) Time deposit rate (new) Source: Bank of Greece, ECB NBG: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT p.9

10 High loan rates in Greece mainly reflect high credit and liquidity risk premia Interest rate on corporate loans Cost of credit Cost of capital Bank funding cost/liquidity premia OPEX Indicative quantitative decomposition of effective lending rate to non-financial corporates Lending rate = Risk free rate + Liquidity premium + credit premia+ cost of capital + Opex.% <.2% + 2.% + 3.% + 1.% +.2% NBG: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT p.1

11 Outlining the path to lower interest rates NBG: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT p.11

12 Sovereign risk re-pricing and bank deposit developments reflect a notable reduction in uncertainty Greece: 1-year government bond spreads over bund 3 3 Agreementon 1st Program for Greece Preliminary agreementon PSI PSI completion & 2nd Program Succesfulcompletion of 2nd Program Review & decisions on Debt relief Crisis in Cyprus Ireland issues 1y bonds Aug-9 Oct-9 Dec-9 Feb-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Elections Source: Bloomberg, Bank of Greece NBG: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT p.12

13 Further uncertainty reduction will be based on a successful implementation of the programme Fiscal measures for the period (c. 4% of GDP) so as to achieve a primary surplus of 4½% of GDP by 216 Closure of funding gap of the programme (c. 1 bn) Success in the implementation of structural reforms and privatizations agendas (tax evasion, public administration, social security, labor markets, judicial reform) Political risk NBG: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT p.13

14 What policy can do at the margin 1. Lending on more secure terms will permit lower rates Strong cash flows (e.g. export orientation) Higher equity participation by borrower More security (e.g. factoring) European risk sharing mechanisms (co-financing and guarantees) 3. Development of securitization market for loans NBG: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT p.14

15 National Bank of Greece- Economic Analysis Department Eolou 86 Str., NBG: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT p.1 Tel: /2