1 CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report IV/) Meeting with Analysts Tibor Hlédik Prague, 7 November,
2 Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast One year of the CNB s exchange rate commitment
3 Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast One year of the CNB s exchange rate commitment 3
4 External Environment Outlook Growth Rate of GDP - Eurozone (y/y, in %) PPI Inflation - Eurozone (y/y, in %) New Old I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/6 - - I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/6-3M EURIBOR USD/EUR I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/6. I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/6 GDP growth in the effective EA will pick up more significantly from the 5 Q. The fall in PPI is deep and long lasting. It reflects weak economic growth in the EA and low commodity prices. 3M EURIBOR is expected to be low over the whole forecast horizon. The euro will continue to depreciate against the USD. -.
5 Fiscal Policy % GDP (ESA ) 6,,,, -, -, -6, -8,,3,7, -,3 -, -,3 -, -, -,9 -, -,9 -,6 -,9 -, -, -,3,, -,8 -,5 -, Public budget deficit Structural deficit (ESCB) Real government consumption (y-o-y %) : slight increase of the deficit to. % of GDP (revival of public investment and current spending vs. higher economic growth and extraordinary revenues from an auction of frequency bands to mobile operators). 5: increase of the deficit to % of GDP (the abolition of most fees in health care, a new % reduced VAT rate, growing pensions, increase in public wages, culminating public investment financed by both EU funds and domestic sources, effect of an extension of the lease of the JAS-39 Gripen supersonic fighter aircraft). 6: decline of the deficit to.5 % of GDP (continuing economic growth). Fiscal impulse: +.3 p.p. in, +.5 p.p. in 5 and -. p.p. in 6. 5
6 Monetary Policy The forecast expects market interest rates to be flat at their current very low level and the koruna exchange rate to be used as an instrument for easing monetary policy until 6 Q. Market interest rates are forecasted to increase by around.8 percentage point in 6 Q and rise further afterwards. The forecast expects that the exchange rate of the koruna against the euro will remain close to the level of CZK 7. for the next a few quarters. This is a somewhat weaker level than the announced asymmetric exchange rate commitment (i.e. CZK 7 to the euro). The return to conventional monetary policy will not imply appreciation of the exchange rate to the level recorded before the CNB started intervening, as the weaker exchange rate of koruna will in the meantime pass through to the price level and other nominal variables. 6
7 Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast One year of the CNB s exchange rate commitment 7
8 Summary of the Inflation Forecast (i) Both headline and monetary-policy relevant inflation remained in Q3 below the lower boundary of the tolerance band around the CNB s target. They will continue to increase towards the CNB s % target, at the end of the monetary policy horizont they will exceed it. The inflationary effect of import prices will turn to anti-inflationary at the beginning of 5 as a result of the observed fall of foreign producer prices and stable nominal exchange rate. In contrast, domestic economy will start generating inflationary pressures due to continuing economic growth and accelerating nominal wage growth in the business sector. 8
9 Summary of the Inflation Forecast (ii) Following its decline in the last year, GDP will grow by.5% this year, as well as in 5. The main factors behind continuing growth will be improving external demand, relaxed domestic monetary conditions and increased government investment. The growth rate will slightly increase in 6, despite the fall in government investment. The economic recovery is already manifesting itself in the labor market through renewed growth in the number of employees converted into full-time equivalents. This is expected to continue on the forecast horizon. The unemployment rate will decrease gradually. Wage growth will noticably increase in the business sector, for near-term the same holds for public sector wages. 9
10 Headline Inflation Forecast (y/y in %) 6 5 Monetary policy horizon 3 Inflation target - IV/ I/3 II III IV I/ II III IV I/5 II III IV I/6 II 9% 7% 5% 3% confidence interval Headline inflation remained in Q3 below the lower boundary of the tolerance band around the CNB s target. It will continue to increase towards the CNB s % target, at the end of the monetary policy horizon it will slightly exceed it.
11 Inflation in the 3.Q Structure of inflation Core inflation and its components 3 - / / Adjusted inflation excluding fuels and food Administered prices Indirect taxes in non-administered prices Food prices (including alcoholic beverages and tobacco) Fuel prices Annual consumer price inflation (in per cent) The y-o-y decline in administered prices in Q3 was more than offset by the increase in food prices and adjusted inflation excluding fuels. The change in fuel prices contributed to overall inflation only marginally. Adjusted inflation excluding fuels remained positive in Q3, supported by both its components.
12 MP-Relevant Inflation Forecast (y/y in %) 6 5 Monetary policy horizon 3 Inflation target - IV/ I/3 II III IV I/ II III IV I/5 II III IV I/6 II 9% 7% 5% 3% confidence interval Monetary policy-relevant inflation will increase close to the inflation target on the monetary policy horizont. Indirect taxation changes: increase in excise duties on cigarettes (+.3 p.p.) and introduction of a second reduced VAT rate at % (-.7 p.p., in 5).
13 Market and Administered Prices.5 Net Inflation (y/y, in %) Growth of Administered Prices (y/y, in %) I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/6 - I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/6 Net inflation, after reaching % in Q3, will slow down due to fall in food and fuel prices. The forecast expects net inflation to start increasing again from 5 Q. It will exceed % at the end of 5 and remain above this level in 6. Administered prices will decrease by. % in 5 (lower energy prices and abolition of most co-payments in health care). They will grow by % in 6. 3
14 Adjusted Inflation Excluding Fuels and Food Adjusted Inflation Excl. Fuels (y/y, in %, Excl. Tax Changes) Food Inflation (y/y, in %, Excl. Tax Changes) I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/6 I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/6 Core inflation will speed up during 5 in an environment of pronounced economic recovery and gradual revival of the labour market. Food prices are expected to decrease temporarily at the beginning of 5 due to the fall of agricultural prices. Their growth, however, will pick up afterwards.
15 Domestic Costs vs. Import Prices Nominal Marginal Cost in Consumption Sector (q/q, in %, ann.) - - Export Specific Technology Import Prices Domestic Prices I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/6 I/7 Nominal Marginal Cost in Intermediate Sector (q/q, in %, ann.) Wages Rental Rate Labor-Augmented Technology I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/6 I/7 Domestic inflationary pressures will continue to build up in coming quarters, reflecting the pronounced revival of the domestic economy. The marked inflationary effects of import prices will turn to slightly antiinflationary in 5 Q due to the observed fall in foreign PPI and stable nominal exchange rate. Increasing wages and costs of capital will be driving the growth of marginal costs in the intermediate sector partly offset by curbing effects of productivity gains. 5
16 GDP Growth Forecast (y/y in %) IV/ I/3 II III IV I/ II III IV I/5 II III IV I/6 II 9% 7% 5% 3% confidence interval GDP growth forecast:.5 % in and 5,.8 % in 6. The economic growth will be supported by all components of domestic demand. Net exports will have a positive effect on economic growth, apart from 5, when high imports generated by a continuing growth of exports and domestic demand will result in slightly negative contribution of net exports. 6
17 Aggregate Demand Household Consumption Growth (y/y, in %) Investments Growth (y/y, in %) I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/6 5 Exports Growth (y/y, in %) -5 I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/ I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/6 5 Imports Growth (y/y, in %) -5 I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/6 Household consumption will be growing at approx. % on the whole forecast horizon, reflecting the dynamics of real disposable income of households. Investment recovery will be supported by continuing investment activity of the private sector and increased public investment during - 5. Exports and imports will copy the temporary slowdown in foreign demand. 7
18 Labour Market Forecast (i) Employment growth expressed in full-time job equivalent turned positive in Q. Further acceleration in the rest of this year will be primarily a result of increases in hours worked per employee amid continued gradual growth in the number of employees. The number of employees in Q3 grew by %. 8
19 Labour Market Forecast (ii) 5 Nominal wage growth in business sector (y/y, in %, s.a.) 3 Official Adjusted I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/6 The observed wage data in business sector have until recently been significantly affected by tax optimization from late. The adjustment of wages from the tax optimization effect was newly carried out based on detailed microdata. Since 3 H adjusted wage growth has gradually been speeding up and this trend will continue due to growing economic activity and inflation. 9
20 Labour Market Forecast (iii) General unemployment rate (ILO) (in %, s.a.) General unemployment rate (ILO) Actual value for 3Q 6 I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/6 The forecast expects that the s.a. level of the general unemployment rate will stay close to 6.3 % until the beginning of 5, when a slight increase in the labor force and employment will compensate each other. Subsequently the growth of employment, supported by economic growth, will dominate. The value of the s.a. general unemployment rate in Q3 reached 6 %.
21 Interest Rate Path PRIBOR 3M, % p.a. 3 IV/ I/3 II III IV I/ II III IV I/5 II III IV I/6 II 9% 7% 5% 3% confidence interval The forecast expects market interest rates to be flat at their current level until 6 Q, reflecting the W repo rate being left at technical zero over the same time frame and the assumption of an unchanged money market premium. Short-term market rates are forecasted to increase by around.8 percentage point in 6 Q and then rise further.
22 Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast One year of the CNB s exchange rate commitment
23 Comparison with Previous Forecast The outlook for headline as well as monetary policy-relevant inflation shifted significantly downwards until the beginning of 6 owing to a shift of net inflation in the same direction. GDP growth has been revised downwards for both and 5, mainly as a result of weaker foreign demand and partially also data revisions. The GDP forecast for 6 remains unchanged. The average nominal wage growth in the bussiness sector is forecasted to be lower, starting from the beginning of the next year. The forecast for domestic market interest rates has shifted lower in late 5 and early 6. This is because the new forecast expects the exchange rate to be used as a monetary policy instrument until 6 Q, whereas the previous forecast assumed it would be used only until 5 Q3. 3
24 Comparison with Previous Inflation Forecast (i) New Old CPI Inflation (y/y, in %) I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/6 -.8 The downward revision of the inflation forecast for the rest of and 5 mainly reflects falling foreign PPI and lower wage growth in the business sector. Slightly higher growth of administered prices and food prices contributes to the higher inflation outlook in 6. Similar shift in the outlook for monetary-policy relevant inflation.
25 Comparison with Previous Inflation Forecast (ii).5 Net Inflation (y/y, in %) Growth of Administered Prices (y/y, in %) New 5 Old I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/6 - - I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/6 -. Net inflation: downward revision of the forecast for and 5, since 6 H somewhat higher outlook. Administered prices: negligible differences for and 5, upward revision for 6 owing to higher expected growth in gas prices linked with a rise in the market outlook for prices of its commodity component. 5
26 Comparison with Previous Inflation Forecast (iii) Adjusted Inflation Excl. Fuels (y/y, in %, Excl. Tax Changes) Food Inflation (y/y, in %, Excl. Tax Changes).5 New Old I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/6 -. I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/6 The forecast of core inflation is revised downwards due to falling PPI in the eurozone and lower wage growth in the business sector. The difference between the forecasts of food prices is mainly given by lower agricultural commodity prices for most of 5. 6
27 Comparison with Previous GDP Forecast (i) GDP Growth (y/y, in %) New Old I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/6 - - GDP forecast has been revised downwards for and 5, mainly as a result of weaker foreign demand. No significant change for 6. The one-off effects relating to cigarette frontloading by producers and retailers ahead of excise duty increases are no longer visible in real GDP growth rates. 7
28 Comparison with Previous GDP Forecast (ii) Household Consumption Growth (y/y, in %) Investments Growth (y/y, in %) I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/6 I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/6 Exports Growth (y/y, in %) Imports Growth (y/y, in %) New Old -5 I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/6-5 I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/6 Households consumption is revised downwards mainly for the rest of. Imports and exports for H and 5 H are revised in the same direction, mainly due to the development of foreign demand. The new ESA methodology resulted in a smoother trajectory of fixed 8 capital formation.
29 Changes in Labour Market Forecast Nominal wage growth in business sector (y/y, in %, s.a.) New Old I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/ The lower forecast of the y/y growth of average wages in the business sector from the beginning of 5 reflects slower economic growth and inflation. 9
30 Changes in Interest Rate Forecast.8 3M PRIBOR (%, p.a.) New Old I/ I/ I/ I/3 I/ I/5 I/ The forecast for domestic market interest rates has shifted lower in late 5 and early 6. This is because the new forecast expects the exchange rate to be used as a monetary policy instrument until 6 Q (previously 5 Q3). The need for longer-lasting easy monetary conditions is mainly due to a lower outlook for foreign producer prices and foreign interest rates. 3
31 Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast One year of the CNB s exchange rate commitment 3
32 One year of the CNB s exchange rate commitment (i) In November 3, the CNB in line with its previous communication started to use the exchange rate of the koruna as an additional instrument for easing monetary policy. It announced a one-sided exchange rate commitment at CZK 7 to the euro and expressed its readiness to prevent excessive appreciation of the koruna below this level. Following the announcement of the exchange rate commitment the koruna quickly depreciated beyond CZK 7 to the euro and soon stabilized without further interventions close to CZK 7.5. The exchange rate commitment quickly established a strong degree of credibility. One year on, it is appropriate to assess the effect of the CNB s new monetary policy strategy on the Czech economy. 3
33 One year of the CNB s exchange rate commitment (ii) Table Comparison of key indicators (annual percentage changes unless otherwise indicated) Available on 7..3 Available on 3.. Gross domestic product (s.a.) II/3 -.3 II/.5 Consumer price index 9/3 9/.7 Monetary-policy relevant inflation 9/3. 9/.6 General unemployment rate (in %, s.a.) 9/3 7. 9/ 5.9 Average nominal wage in business sector (in CZK, s.a.) II/ II/ 5 5 Average nominal wage II/3. II/.3 Number of vacancies 9/ / 56 6 Composite confidence indicator (index) / / 9. The economy - supported by a combination of recovery in the euro area, relaxed monetary conditions and increasing public investment - is growing noticeably. This is having a favourable effect on the labour market and household as well as business confidence. Headline inflation has fallen slightly compared to last year and deviated even further from the CNB s % target. Adjusted for the effect of tax changes, it has rebounded from the edge of deflation. 33
34 One year of the CNB s exchange rate commitment (iii) Chart Comparison of the CNB's inflation forecasts (annual percentage changes) Chart Shift in the outlook of effective PPI (Consensus Forecast) (annual percentage changes; seasonally adjusted) I/ I/3 I/ I/5 - I/ I/3 I/ I/5 IR IV/3 IR I/ IR II/ IR III/ IR IV/ IR IV/3 IR I/ IR II/ IR III/ IR IV/ The assessment of the impacts of the weakening of the koruna on inflation is complicated at first sight, as inflation is still very low and its outlook has shifted substantially downwards since November 3. One of the key factors, explaining low inflation in the Czech Republic, is the deflationary development in the euro area. This is reflected in a decline in both observed and expected foreign producer price inflation. The fall in domestic admin. prices is also deeper than expected last November. 3
35 One year of the CNB s exchange rate commitment (iv) 3M Pribor, %, CZK/EUR -,, -,,8 -,3 -, -,5 Impact of foreign variables ZLB +no endogenous XR response 3Q3 3Q Q Q Q3,6,, 3Q3 3Q Q Q Q3 MP inflation, % y/y GDP, % y/y -, -, -,3 -,5 - -, -,5 -,5 3Q3 3Q Q Q Q3-3Q3 3Q Q Q Q3 The deflationary foreign development justifies a substantial part of the weakening of the Czech koruna s exchange rate. If the exchange rate had not autonomously acted as a stabilizer and interest rates would be at ZLB, the anti-inflationary foreign development would result in lower inflation and the domestic economic growth. 35
36 One year of the CNB s exchange rate commitment (v) The current inflation rate in the Czech Republic is similar to that in Germany and other European countries with relatively good economic performance. Without the use of the exchange rate of the koruna as instrument by the CNB in November 3 we would probably be in the group of countries with negative inflation rates. 36
37 Thank you for your attention! Tibor Hlédik Monetary and Statistics Department 37
CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report II/2015) Meeting with Analysts Petr Král Prague, 11 May, 2015 1 Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast
Czech Economic Outlook and Prospects for the Exchange Rate Floor Vladimir Tomsik Vice-Governor Czech National Bank Small Talks Symposium 9 October 2015 Investor Seminar 10 October 2015 IMF/WB Annual Meeting
43rd Eurobanking Meeting Prague 15 Monetary Policy of CNB: Czech FX Commitment Midterm Assessment Lubomír Lízal, Ph.D. Praha, June 1, 15 Situation of the Czech economy in 13: Inflation actual vs. targets
Czech Economy and CNB s Exchange Rate Commitment: Waiting for Godots Tomáš Holub (Executive Director, Monetary Department) 24 November 2015, London Citibank Investor Seminar Motto ESTRAGON: Charming spot.
Adam Smith Seminar The Life with FX Commitment: Midterm Evaluation and Outlook Lubomír Lízal, Ph.D. Adam Smith Seminar Series Paris March 8-9, 16 Outline 1. Situation of the Czech economy in 13. Passive
EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA On the basis of the information available up to 22 May 2009, Eurosystem staff have prepared projections for macroeconomic developments in the
CNB s Exchange Rate Commitment: Past, Present and Future Vladimír Tomšík (Vice-Governor) Tomáš Holub (Executive Director, Monetary Department) 28 October 2015, London CNB / Morgan Stanley Investor Seminar
South African Reserve Bank Press Statement Embargo on Delivery 28 January 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the
. Price and Wage Developments Recent Developments in Inflation Inflation rose in the December quarter, following a low September quarter outcome (Table.; Graph.). Indicators of underlying inflation increased
Assessment of the Fulfilment of the Maastricht Convergence Criteria and the Degree of Economic Alignment of the Czech Republic with the Euro Area A joint document of the Ministry of Finance of the Czech
1/ X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 10.1 Overview of World Economy Latest indicators are increasingly suggesting that the significant contraction in economic activity has come to an end, notably
Ministry of Finance Chief Economist - Research, State Revenue and International Affairs June 2013 Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, XXX [ ](2013) XXX draft COMMISSION OPINION of XXX on the Draft Budgetary Plan of ITALY EN EN COMMISSION OPINION of XXX on the Draft Budgetary Plan of ITALY GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS
Strategy Document / Monetary policy in the period 5 March to 5 June Discussed by the Executive Board at its meeting of 5 February. Approved by the Executive Board at its meeting of 5 March Background Norges
South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 17 March 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the previous
Economic Outlook for Europe and Finland Finnish-British Chamber of Commerce 15 March 213 Seppo Honkapohja Member of the Board Bank of Finland 1 World economy: World industrial output improved, but international
An Evaluation of the Possible Macroeconomic Impact of the Income Tax Reduction in Malta Article published in the Quarterly Review 2015:2, pp. 41-47 BOX 4: AN EVALUATION OF THE POSSIBLE MACROECONOMIC IMPACT
PROJECTIONS FOR THE PORTUGUESE ECONOMY: 2015-2017 Box 1 Projection assumptions Projections for the Portuguese economy: 2015-2017 7 Projections for the Portuguese economy: 2015-2017 1. Introduction Projections
Project LINK Meeting New York, - October 1 Country Report: Australia Prepared by Peter Brain: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, and Duncan Ironmonger: Department of Economics, University
MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, email@example.com Weak First Quarter, But Growth Expected to Recover MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: May 2015 Broad economic growth in the US got off to a slow
Projections for the Portuguese economy: 2016-2018 7 Projections for the Portuguese economy: 2016-2018 1. Introduction Projections for the Portuguese economy point to a moderate recovery in economic activity
6. Economic Outlook The International Economy Overall, growth of Australia s major trading partners (MTPs) is expected to be a bit above its long-run average in 014 and 015 (Graph 6.1). Forecasts for most
Main trends in industry in 2014 and thoughts on future developments (April 2015) Development of the industrial sector in 2014 After two years of recession, industrial production returned to growth in 2014.
STABILITY PROGRAMME 2014-2017 COUNCIL OF MINISTERS APRIL 30 2014 Stability Programme 2014-2017 The Council of Ministers has approved today the referral to Brussels of: The Stability Programme 2014-2017,
Why is inflation low? MONETARY POLICY REPORT 5 Inflation has been low in Sweden in recent years and fell further in the latter part of, mainly because the rate of price increase for services slowed down.
ECONOMIC BULLETIN June 2015 ECONOMIC BULLETIN June 2015 Lisbon, 2015 www.bportugal.pt ECONOMIC BULLETIN June 2015 Banco de Portugal Av. Almirante Reis, 71 1150-012 Lisboa www.bportugal.pt Edition Economics
Spain Economic Outlook Rafael Doménech EUI-nomics 2015 Debating the Economic Conditions in the Euro Area and Beyond Firenze, 24th of April, 2015 The outlook one year ago: the risks were to the upside for
Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014 Xuesong Li Professor of Economics Deputy Director of Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Email: firstname.lastname@example.org
UK Economic Forecast Q3 2014 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and to
Economic Review, April 2012 Author Name(s): Malindi Myers, Office for National Statistics Abstract This note provides some wider economic analysis to support the Statistical Bulletin relating to the latest
March 2016 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area 1 1 Euro area outlook: overview and key features The economic recovery in the euro area is expected to continue, albeit with less momentum
T H E C E N T R A L B A N K OF T H E R E P U B L I C O F A R M E N I A Approved under Board of the Central Bank Resolution No. 39A, dated 19.2.215 Inflation Report Monetary Policy Program, Q1, 215 Status
Why Treasury Yields Are Projected to Remain Low in 5 March 5 PERSPECTIVES Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Gabriele Oriolo Analyst Global Asset Allocation Research While
BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information January 12, 2015 Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on General the interest rate for January 2015
BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information September 7, 2015 Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on the General interest rate for September
SEPTEMBER 2015 STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA 1 1. EURO AREA OUTLOOK: OVERVIEW AND KEY FEATURES The recovery in activity in the euro area is expected to continue, albeit at a somewhat
INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE Thursday 4 th February 2016 Opening remarks by the Governor Good afternoon. At its meeting yesterday, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 9-0 to maintain Bank Rate
Not to be released until : p.m. Japan Standard Time on Saturday, January 3, 16. January 3, 16 Bank of Japan Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices January 16 (English translation prepared by the Bank's
The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 213 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist Summary of presentation Global economy slowly exiting recession but
6. Economic Outlook 6 The International Economy The outlook for GDP growth of Australia s major trading partners (MTPs) is unchanged from the November Statement. Over the next few years, growth is expected
Japan s Economic Challenges LUC EVERAERT ASIA PACIFIC DEPARTMENT INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO JANUARY 18, 216 1 Global Overview I. Global outlook and risks II. Prospects for Japan III.
6 Quality of Public Finances Revenues and Expenditures 6.1 The Government s Strategy In 2003, the Czech government launched a public finance reform focusing on fiscal consolidation and elimination of the
WELCOME TO THE WEBINAR WEBINAR LINK: HTTP://FRBATL.ADOBECONNECT.COM/ECONOMY/ DIAL-IN NUMBER (MUST USE FOR AUDIO): 855-377-2663 ACCESS CODE: 71032685 Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the
ANNEX 1 - MACROECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS FOR ITALY OF ACHIEVING COMPLIANCE WITH THE DEBT RULE UNDER TWO DIFFERENT SCENARIOS The aim of this note is first to illustrate the impact of a fiscal adjustment aimed
New Monetary Policy Challenges 63 Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 2013, 1, pp. 63-67 Received: 5 December 2012; accepted: 4 January 2013 UDC: 336.74 Alexey V. Ulyukaev * New Monetary Policy
Chapter 2: Key Macroeconomics Variables ECON2 (Spring 20) 2 & 4.3.20 (Tutorial ) National income accounting Gross domestic product (GDP): The market value of all final goods and services produced within
Labour market outlook, spring 2015 SUMMARY Ura 2015:4 Labour market outlook Spring 2015 Summary The next few years will be characterised both by continued improvements in job growth and more people entering
Phoenix Society of Financial Analysts and Arizona State University Business School ASU, Memorial Union - Ventana Room April 24, 1998, 12:30 PM Robert T. Parry, President, FRBSF The following text represents
SPEECH DATE: 21 August 2014 SPEAKER: First Deputy Governor Kerstin af Jochnick LOCATION: The Swedish Society of Financial Analysts, IVA Conference Centre, Stockholm SVERIGES RIKSBANK SE-103 37 Stockholm
Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in Small and Emerging Economies: Flexibility and Reflectiveness Do Pay Off Jan Frait Executive Director Financial Stability Department Centre for Central Banking
199Q1 1997Q1 1999Q1 21Q1 23Q1 2Q1 27Q1 29Q1 211Q1 213Q1 IV. Investment dynamics in the euro area since the crisis (4) This section analyses the investment dynamics in the euro area since the global financial
Monetary Policy Report February 15 S V E R I G E S R I K S B A N K Correction 15--13 Two figures on page 3 were switched around in the previous version of the report. This meant that references to Figures
UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and to
August 2014 Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The exhibits below are updated to reflect the current economic outlook for factors that typically impact
PENSIONS INVESTMENTS LIFE INSURANCE PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT FOR PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT () PRODUCTS WITH AN ANNUAL FUND MANAGEMENT CHARGE OF 1% - JULY 201 Thank
PORTUGAL STABILITY AND GROWTH PROGRAMME Update for the period 2005-2007 December 2004 Stability and Growth Programme 2005-2007 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION...1 II. THE MACROECONOMIC SETTING...2 RECENT
HEAD OFFICE ANKARA, 28 January 2014 Please refer to B.02.2.TCM.0.00.00.00- Ali BABACAN DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER ANKARA As stipulated in the Article 42 of the Central Bank Law, in the case of a significant
South African Reserve Bank Press Statement Embargo Delivery 21 July 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank The UK vote to
Explanation beyond exchange rates: trends in UK trade since 2007 Author Name(s): Michael Hardie, Andrew Jowett, Tim Marshall & Philip Wales, Office for National Statistics Abstract The UK s trade performance
MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS PROPOSALS TO PROVIDE $500 BILLION IN TAX RELIEF Prepared by the Staff of the JOINT COMMITTEE ON TAXATION March 1, 2005 JCX-4-05 CONTENTS INTRODUCTION... 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...
Monthly Update Politics On the 29 th of January, the President of the Republic of Serbia Mr. Tomislav Nikolic called for earlier Parliamentary elections for the 16 th of March 2014, in order to speed up
1 CHAPTER 11. AN OVEVIEW OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND QUARTERLY MODEL OF THE (BEQM) This model is the main tool in the suite of models employed by the staff and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in the construction
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, SEC(2010) 344 Recommendation for a COUNCIL OPINION on the updated convergence programme of the Czech Republic, 2009-2012 EN EN EXPLANATORY MEMORANDUM 1. GENERAL BACKGROUND
Economic Review, November 2013 Author Name(s): Philip Wales, Office for National Statistics Abstract This note draws together key economic stories from National Statistics produced over the latest month.
Risks and Scenarios Introduction The forecasts presented in the Economic and Tax Outlook chapter incorporate a number of judgements about how both the New Zealand and the world economies evolve. Some judgements
Mo n t h ly Bulletin Published by: Národná banka Slovenska Address: Národná banka Slovenska Imricha Karvaša 1, 813 25 Bratislava Slovakia Contact: Press and Editorial Section +421/02/5787 2141 +421/02/5787
Lecture 11-1 6.1 The open economy, the multiplier, and the IS curve Assume that the economy is either closed (no foreign trade) or open. Assume that the exchange rates are either fixed or flexible. Assume
Macroeconomics Revision Essay Plan (2): Inflation and Unemployment and Economic Policy (a) Explain why it is considered important to control inflation (20 marks) (b) Discuss how a government s commitment
Monetary policy in Russia: Recent challenges and changes Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia) Abstract Increasing trade and financial flows between the world s countries has been a double-edged
Re p o r t o n t h e Slo va k Ec o n o m y Published by: Národná banka Slovenska Address: Národná banka Slovenska Imricha Karvaša 1, 813 2 Bratislava Slovakia Contact: +421/2/787 2146 http://www.nbs.sk
september Monetary Policy Report with financial stability assessment Norges Bank Oslo Address: Bankplassen Postal address: Postboks 79 Sentrum, 7 Oslo Phone: +7 Fax: +7 E-mail: email@example.com
1 Economic Outlook Overview Following a slight contraction in 1998/99, the economy is expected to grow steadily over the forecast period. Growth is expected to be.9% in 1999/, 3.5% in /1, and 3.% in 1/.
Background Employment forecasts over the three years to March 2018 1 are presented in this report. These employment forecasts will inform the Ministry s advice relating to immigration priorities, and priority
January U.S. Economic & Housing Market Outlook Preparing for 2015 Housing Market Opportunities As we enter 2015, the U.S. economy and housing markets are prepared for a robust start. Unlike one year ago,
EFN REPORT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2015 and 2016 Winter 2014/15 1 About the European ing Network The European ing Network (EFN) is a research group of European institutions, founded in 2001
Quarterly Economics Briefing March June 2015 2016 Review of Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The exhibits below are updated to reflect the current economic
RETIREMENT INSTITUTE SM Economic perspective Monthly Economic Dashboard Modest acceleration in economic growth appears in store for 2016 as the inventory-caused soft patch ends, while monetary policy moves
CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Percent 70 The Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes, 2008 and 2009 60 50 Before-Tax Income Federal Taxes Top 1 Percent 40 30 20 81st