SUMMARY OF INDEX DAILY CLOSINGS FOR WEDNESDAY, MARCH 4th, Sep

Transcription

1 ROERT D. MCHUGH, JR., Ph.D. Dily Mrket Newsletter A Puliction of Min Line Investors, Inc. P.O. ox 06 Issue No. 08 Emil Address: Kimerton, PA 9 Wednesdy, Mrch th, 009 rmchugh@techniclindictorindex.com SUMMARY OF INDEX DAILY CLOSINGS FOR WEDNESDAY, MARCH th, 009 Sep NASDAQ NASDAQ Russell 0 Yr Tres Dte Sep 9 DJIA 9 Trnsports S&P COMPQ onds Sep 0 9 Fe Sep ^9 Fe Sep ^0 Mr ^ Mr ^5 Mr ^8 S&P S&P 500 vs: Demnd Power & Supply Pressure Decemer 008 to Mrch 009 When Demnd Power Crosses 0 Pts ove the Supply Pressure Line, we get uy Signl. When Supply Pressure rises 0 Points ove Demnd Power, we get Sell Signl. Exit signls occur when DP or SP lines return to intersection fter n entry signl. S&P 500 Enter Long Demnd Power Supply Pressure copyright 009 Roert McHugh, Ph.D. We received n "Enter Short Positions" Signl Ferury 6th, 009 Enter Short //08 //09 //09 //09 Sttus of Demnd Power/Supply Pressure Key Trend-finder Indictor Demnd Power/ Supply Pressure First Current Current Fullest Extent of Index Term * Signl Dte of Signl Demnd Pr. Supply Pr. Index Move Since Signl S&P 500/DJIA Short Enter Short /0// SPX Fell 6 Points ( 5. %) NDX Short Enter Short /9/ NDX Fell 9 Points ( 8.0 %) * We consider new entry point for signl the dy when one mesure crosses more thn 0 points ove the other. We like to exit when (or efore if conservtive) the two mesures return to n intersection. Enter Long Enter Short Visit Our Wesite At Pge

2 MCHUGH S DAILY MARKET RIEFING Wednesdy Mrch th, 009 Summry of McHugh s Proprietry Index Key Trend-finder uy/sell Signls Fullest Extent of Index Term Signl Dte Current Signl Index Move Since Signl Purchsing Power Indictor DJIA/S&P Short uy Mr th, 009 New uy Signl DJIA Dy Stochstic DJIA Short Sell Fe 0th, 009 Fell Points (. %) DJIA 0 Dy Stochstic DJIA Short Sell Fe 0th, 009 Fell Points (. %) DJIA Primry Trend Indictor DJIA Long Sell Sept 0th, 008 DJIA Fell 095 Points ( 7.7 %) Secondry Trend Indictor DJIA/S&P Short uy Dec 6th, 008 DJIA Rose 57 Points ( 6.7 %) NDX Purchse Power Indic NASDAQ 00 Short uy Mr th, 009 New uy Signl NDX Dy Stochstic NASDAQ 00 Short Sell Fe 7th, 009 Fell Points ( 9.5 %) RUT Purchse Power Indic RUT Short Sell Mr nd, 009 Fell 0 Points ( 0.0 %) HUI Purchsing Power Indic HUI Short Sell Fe th, 009 Fell Points ( 8.0 %) HUI 0 Dy Stochstic HUI Short Sell Fe th, 009 Fell Points ( 8.0 %) The Dow Industrils rose 9.8 points Wednesdy, closing t 6, NYSE volume ws flt t 05 percent of its 0 dy verge. Upside volume led t 7 percent, with dvncing issues leding t 79 percent, with upside points t 9 percent. S&P 500 Demnd Power rose points to 7, while Supply Pressure fell 9 points to 57, telling us uyers showed up for the first time in while, with only smll percentge coming from short-covering. The DP/SP indictor remins on sell signl Wednesdy. Wednesdy s price move ws lrge,. percent, not unexpected given the smll chnge in Tuesdy s McClelln Oscilltor. The 0 nd 5 minute Full Stochstics suggest we could see prices decline Thursdy. Tuesdy nd Wednesdy s price ction looks like minor degree wve up. If so, the next wve is 5 down to complete this dstrdly decline. On the outside chnce tht wve 5 down hs ottomed, our lternte leling tonight, we need to see severl dys of rlly follow-through nd new uy signls in most trendfinder indictors to confirm wve C-up hs strted. When C-up strts, we would not e surprised if it trunctes, mening it tops elow wve A s erly Jnury top. However, we still re likely tlking rlly of 5 to 0 percent from current levels. Our key trend-finder indictors remin on sell signls, s they hve for while. There is spring equinox turn period ded hed, which is coincident with coming phi mte turn dte, nd the Full Stochstics re oversold, some very oversold. A technicl ounce tht will offer chnce for folks to rise more csh should strt sometime over the next week. The Dily Full Stochstics generted new uy signls Wednesdy, so wve C-up should not e fr off. Pge

3 MCHUGH S DAILY MARKET RIEFING Wednesdy Mrch th, 009 elow, we see very short-term chrt of the Industrils, showing the short-term EW leling. Wve (C ) down of -down looks to need nother decline phse to complete, which mens could ottom in the low to mid-6,000 re. A decisive rise ove 7,500, confirmed y new uy signls in our 0 nd dy stochstic indictors, would convince us the decline is over nd wve C-up hs strted. The importnt thing to keep in mind is not to get too fr hed of our key trend-finder indictors, which hve een on sells or sidewys signls for while. We d like to see new uy signls emerge efore ecoming convinced tht wve C-up hs strted. A uy signl in the PPT indictor would e n importnt confirmtion tht wve C-up is underwy. c, It is looking More nd More Like wve C-up will strt t the Mrch th +/- phi mte turn dte. c, A decisive Rise ove wve s 7,00, ove, 7,500, would rgue wve C up hs strted. Ferury phi mte turn dte, //09. 5, 5, 5, (C ), Pge

4 MCHUGH S DAILY MARKET RIEFING Wednesdy Mrch th, 009 The Demnd Power/Supply Pressure indictors remin on n enter short position signl Wednesdy. Wednesdy s McClelln Oscilltor improved to negtive 5.5. The Summtion Index fell to negtive 5.7. NYSE New Highs remined nemic t, with New Lows improving to 9. The percent of DJIA stocks ove their 0 dy moving verge rose to. from The percent ove 0 dy rose to 6.67 from The percent ove 5 dy rose to. from The NYSE 0 dy verge Advnce/Decline Line Indictor improved to negtive 70.9, remining on sell signl from Ferury th, needing to rise ove the positive threshold necessry for new uy. Our three lue Chip key trend-finder indictors (other thn the Demnd Power/Supply Pressure Indictor) triggered new sidewys signl Wednesdy. The DJIA 0 dy Stochstic Fst rose to., ove the Slow t.00, ut not decisively ove, remining on sell signl from Ferury 0th. The DJIA dy Stochstic rose to 6.67, ove the Slow t 6., ut not decisively ove, remining on sell signl from Ferury 0th. The Fst hd to cross more thn 0 points elow the Slow for new sell. The S&P 500 Purchsing Power Indictor rose 0 points to -5.5, triggering new uy signl Mrch th. The Plunge Protection Tem Risk Indictor ws flt t positive +. Wednesdy, Mrch th, remining on sell signl from Ferury nd, 009. A rise ove positive or drop elow negtive 6.0 triggers new uy signl. When the reding rises ove positive , or flls elow negtive 6.00, we usully see multi-week rllies. On the other hnd, declines cn (don t hve to) occur when this reding flls within the rnge of negtive 6.00 to positive The PPT Indictor ws in the rnge where declines typiclly occur, etween negtive 6.00 nd positive for most of the lte Decemer/Jnury decline, which sw the DJIA drop over,00 points. It then rose ove Jnury th. Rllies usully strt out week or two fter this mesure exceeds positive When this indictor lst went elow negtive 6.00, triggering new uy signl, on Ferury 7th, 008, the Industrils closed t,7. After tht the Industrils rose 509 points. After they rose ove negtive 6.00 on Mrch rd, the DJIA dropped over 500 points. From My to July 008 we sw significnt decline within this rnge,,650 points. After this indictor generted sell signl Octoer st, the Industrils declined,98 points. After this indictor generted sell signl Novemer 7th, the Industrils fell 8 points, or 0 percent. The DJIA Cll/Put Rtio rose to.08 Wednesdy, remining on uy signl from Jnury 8th,(moving elow.00 nd ove.0 is neutrl, while rising decisively ove.00 (ove.0) triggers new uy ). On Wednesdy, the Secondry Trend Indictor rose 8 points to positive + 0, remining on uy signl from Decemer 6th when it went positive for the first time in three months. Aove zero is ullish. elow zero is erish. The closer it moves towrd zero, the greter the risk of developing trend turn, thus cution with open positions would e recommended. After it turned erish on Decemer st, 007, the Industrils fell,60 Points, or. percent. After it generted sell, on June 7th, the Industrils fell,00 points. After it triggered sell signl on Octoer nd, the Industrils fell,600 points. This indictor correltes well with price trends. Shorting should only e done with funds tht re specultive nd the investor is willing to ccept sustntil loss on. Tht is ecuse the PPT is very ctive t this time. Pge

5 MCHUGH S DAILY MARKET RIEFING Wednesdy Mrch th, 009 SUMMARY PAST WEEK S DEMAND POWER/SUPPLY PRESSURE STATISTICS lue Chips S&P 500/DJIA Demnd Supply Purchsing Secondry Dte Power Pressure Power Indictor Trend Indictor Fe 5 Down to 79 Up to Down to Down to + Fe 6 Down to 77 Up to Down to 6 Up to + 5 Fe 7 Down to 7 Up 6 to 9 Down 5 to 5 Down 5 to + 0 Mr Down to 6 Up 7 to 66 Down to 6 Down 7 to + Mr Down to 60 Flt 0 t 66 Down to 6 Down to + Mr Up to 7 Down 9 to 57 Up 0 to 5 Up 8 to +0 NASDAQ 00 PPT Risk Indictor Demnd Supply Purchsing (Aove +8% Mens High Dte Power Pressure Power Indictor Risk of Short-covering Rlly) Fe 5 Down to 0 Up to 7 Down to Fe 6 Down to 0 Up 5 to Down 8 to Fe 7 Down to 0 Flt 0 t Down to Mr Down 6 to 95 Up 9 to Down 0 to Mr Flt 0 t 95 Down to 0 Flt 0 t Mr Up 6 to Down 5 to 5 Up 7 to Dy Averge Short-term Advnce/Decline Signls Mr th Fullest Extent of Index A/D Indictor Signl Dte of Signl Index Move Since Signl NYSE/S&P Sell Fe th, 009 SPX Fell Points ( 5.9.%) NASDAQ Sell Fe 9th, 009 NDX Fell 9 Points ( 8.0 %) Russell Sell Fe th, 009 RUT Fell 80 Points ( 7.9 %) The Dily Full Stochstics in the HUI hve een pproching n oversold level, suggesting short-term ottom ws/is close, thus Tuesdy s ounce ws not unexpected, however the weekly Full Stochstics re clerly t top, wrning ny rlly will e within the context of declining trend for nother month or so. Gold nd Silver re topping, within longer-term ull mrket. Oil is topping shortterm, within lrger degree rlly phse. onds could find ottom round 0ish, s it forms possile sidewys tringle, the forces of infltion ttling the forces of Mster Plnner intervention to keep yields low. The Dollr should lso e topping. Check out our new Lte Winter Specils, extended through Sundy, Mrch 8th, including n 8 month offering. If you re enjoying your suscription, plese tell friend. Pge 5

6 MCHUGH S DAILY MARKET RIEFING Wednesdy Mrch th, 009 The NASDAQ 00 rose 9.6 points Wednesdy, closing t,0.0. Volume ws flt t 0 percent of its 0 dy verge. Upside volume led t 8 percent, while dvncing issues led t 86 percent, with upside points t 8 percent. NDX Demnd Power rose 6 points to 0, while Supply Pressure fell 5 points to 5, telling us the mrket ws left with confusion fter the ltest performnces y the heds of Tresury nd Fed. The DP/SP indictor triggered n enter short positions signl Ferury 9th, nd remins there Tuesdy. Our key trend-finder indictors triggered new sidewys signl Wednesdy. The NDX dy Stochstic Fst rose to.00, ove the Slow t 9.0, ut not decisively ove, remining on sell signl from Ferury 7th, 009. The NDX Purchsing Power Indictor rose 7 points to negtive 0.65, triggering new uy signl Mrch th, 009. The NDX 0 dy verge Advnce/ Decline Line Indictor improved to negtive 5.7, remining on sell signl from Ferury 9th, 009, when it fell elow the negtive threshold for new sell signl. NDX NASDAQ 00 vs: Demnd Power & Supply Pressure Decemer 008 to Mrch 009 When Demnd Power Crosses ove the Supply Pressure Line y 0 points, we get uy Signl. When Supply Pressure rises ove Demnd Power y 0 points, we get Sell Signl. Exit Signls occur when DP or SP lines return to intersecttion fter n entry signl. Exit Short /8/08 NASDAQ 00 We got n "Enter Short Positions" Signl /9/09 Supply Pressure Enter Long //09 copyright 009 Roert McHugh, Ph.D. Demnd Power Enter Short //09 Reenter Short /0/09 Enter Long /5/09 Enter Short /9/09 Demnd Power/ Supply Pressure //08 //09 //09 // Pge 6

7 MCHUGH S DAILY MARKET RIEFING Wednesdy Mrch th, 009 The Russell 000 rose 0.9 points Wednesdy, closing t 7.0. Volume ws lower t 06 percent of its 0 dy verge, with upside volume leding t 76 percent, with dvncing issues leding t 77 percent. The RUT Purchsing Power Indictor rose to negtive.60, remining on sell signl from Mrch nd, 009. The RUT 0 dy verge Advnce/Decline Line Indictor improved to negtive 95.0, remining on sell signl from Ferury th, needing to rise ove the positive threshold for new uy signl. The HUI Amex Gold ugs Index fell.58 points Wednesdy, closing t 7.. Volume ws flt t 9 percent of its 0 dy verge. Upside volume led t 6 percent, with dvncing issues t 65 percent, with upside points t 8 percent in mixed trding. Our key trend-finder indictors remin on sell signl Wednesdy. The HUI 0 dy Stochstic Fst fell to 0.00, elow the Slow t.67, remining on sell signl from Ferury th. The Fst hs to rise more thn 0 points ove the Slow to trigger new uy. The HUI Purchsing Power Indictor fell to 0.59, remining on sell signl from Ferury th. April Gold fell to Silver rose to.97, while April Oil rose to 5.5. The Dollr fell 0.7 to onds fell point to ^8. The PPT hs to uy the long end to keep onds heded in the right direction, to support the housing mrket, especilly now tht AMAC nd MIA re no longer rted AAA, Fnnie Me nd Freddie Mc who hold hlf of ll mortgges - hve collpsed, nd credit mrkets hve frozen, requiring lower interest rtes, nd Mster Plnner interest rte (ond) intervention. ernnke finlly suggested they will. The powerful rlly in onds confirms they re monetizing Tresury det. The VIX fell.7 to The Austrli SPASX00 fell 5.80 points, or.6 percent, to,50.0 Wednesdy. Click on the Weekend Austrli Report, which includes EW chrts of the FTSE nd DAX, for the ltest nlysis. ottom Line: The Fed hs to continue hyperinflting to il out this sick economy, feeding mjor trend up in precious metls. Households, not just Wll Street, must e iled out. If this doesn t hppen we re heded for n economic depression. Lte Winter Specils: 6 Months for $75, or 0 Months for $9, or, Months for $5, or Months for $9, or 8 Months for $79, or * Months for $9 * Extended through Sundy, Mrch 8th, 009 Simply go to nd click on the Suscrie Tody or Renew Tody uttons. Note: The Month Suscription gets you free copy of the ook, Pge 7

8 MCHUGH S DAILY MARKET RIEFING Wednesdy Mrch th, 009 {V} e of 5 of (5) of V (V) {III} Alt. (A) (A) If the degrees of these wves re one lower thn depicted, it mens this er Mrket will Lst At Lest Until 0. (D) (C) (E), A A C, (A) C, Weekly Full Stochstic re On Sell Signl, ottoming. (C ), {IV} {V} e of 5 of (5) of V (V) {III} (D) (A) If the degrees of these wves re one lower thn depicted, it mens this er Mrket will Lst At Lest Until 0. (C) Alt. (A) A C, (E), A C, (A) Weekly Full Stochstic re On Sell Signl, ottoming. (C ), {IV} Pge 8

9 MCHUGH S DAILY MARKET RIEFING Wednesdy Mrch th, 009 Dily Full Stochstics ck on uy Signl, And ottoming. A rise ove the purple upper oundry of the declining trend-chnnel, ove 7,800, will confirm wve C-up is underwy. The ottom Trend-line Supports Prices. Dily Full Stochstics ck on uy Signl, And ottoming. Pge 9

10 MCHUGH S DAILY MARKET RIEFING Wednesdy Mrch th, 009 C, (A) (C ), A Alt. 5, (C ), C, (A) (A) If the degrees of these wves re one lower thn depicted, it mens this er Mrket will Lst At Lest Until 0. 5, (C ), Prices Could Fll Thursdy C, (A) (C), A C, A C, (A) (A) 5, (C ), Prices Could Fll Thursdy Pge 0

11 MCHUGH S DAILY MARKET RIEFING Wednesdy Mrch th, 009 Alt. 5, (C ), C, Prices Could Fll Thursdy 5, (C ), C, Prices Could Fll Thursdy 5, (C ), Pge

12 MCHUGH S DAILY MARKET RIEFING Wednesdy Mrch th, 009 NDX ig Picture Highest Proility Leling c e, 5, A d c, The NDX s Weekly Full Stochstic Remins on sell, Intermedite-term. e, C up of c d i ii iii iv v, 5, The NASDAQ 00 Is completing the first wve of five wve Decline for wve (C ) down. (A ii 5 of (C) The Dily Full Stochstics re on uy signl, And ottoming. c, A Pge

13 MCHUGH S DAILY MARKET RIEFING Wednesdy Mrch th, 009 c, c, c, {c}, {} ii Alt. v, 5, i iv {} {} {C}, Prices Could Fll Thursdy iii v, 5, {V} e of 5 of (5) of V (V) {III} A A C, If the degrees of these wves re one lower thn depicted, it mens this er Mrket will Lst At Lest Until 0. C, (A) Weekly Full Stochstic re On Sell Signl, ut ottoming. (C ), {IV} Pge

14 MCHUGH S DAILY MARKET RIEFING Wednesdy Mrch th, 009 5, (5) I This Rising erish Wedge is Termintion Pttern, Top. The MACD Is on sell signl. The Full Stochstics Are on sell signl, ut ottoming Short-term. c, (A) ( C) II A short-term ottom is pproching in the HUI. Dily MACD On sell signl. v, 5, v, c, iii iv i iv c, c, ii Dily Full STO Trigger Sell signl, Approching Short-term ottom. Pge

15 MCHUGH S DAILY MARKET RIEFING Wednesdy Mrch th, 009 MCHUGH S FINANCIAL MARKETS Key FORECAST Economic Sttistics & ANALYSIS Issue No. 7 Week Avg. onds Dte nd VIX Interest U.S. Rtes: $ Euro CR Gold Silver Crude Oil M- /0/ Hidden /7/ Hidden // Hidden Note: VIX, Dollr rise; Gold, Silver, nd Oil fll. Conservtive lnced Portfolio Recent Trnsctions As of Wednesdy Mrch th, 009 * On /6/09 we closed ll HUI positions in the Mrket Timing segment lloction of our conservtive portfolio y selling 00 shres of GDX t $5. per shre. * On /6/09, we closed ll Gold positions in the Mrket Timing segment lloction of our conservtive portfolio y selling 00 shres of GLD t $89.59 per shre. * On /6/09, we closed ll Silver positions in the Mrket Timing segment lloction of our conservtive portfolio y selling,000 shres of SLV t $.9 per shre. Note: The ove trnsctions rised $6,07. We pln to uy these securities ck fter the Full Stochstics drop to oversold levels, however re holding similr securities in our uy nd hold segment of the portfolio given the long term ullish trend tht is underwy. Note: Our Conservtive Portfolio Model sustntilly outperformed the S&P 500 in 008. Check it out! Click on the Conservtive Portfolio utton t the left side of the home pge. We posted n updted lnces/mrket Vlue Portfolio s of Decemer st, 008, ville in the Conservtive Portfolio section. Lte Winter Specils: 6 Months for $75, or 0 Months for $9, or, Months for $5, or Months for $9, or 8 Months for $79, or * Months for $9 * Pge 6 of 6 Extended through Sundy, Mrch 8th, 009 Simply go to click on the Suscrie Tody or Renew Tody uttons. Pge 5

16 MCHUGH S DAILY MARKET RIEFING Wednesdy, Mrch th, 009 MCHUGH S FINANCIAL MARKETS FORECAST & ANALYSIS Issue No. 7 Roert McHugh Ph.D. is President nd CEO of Min Line Investors, Inc., registered investment dvisor in the Commonwelth of Pennsylvni, nd cn onds e nd reched Interest t Rtes: The sttements, opinions, uy nd sell signls, nd nlyses presented in this newsletter re provided s generl informtion nd eduction service only. Opinions, estimtes, uy nd sell signls, nd proilities expressed herein constitute the judgment of the uthor s of the dte indicted nd re suject to chnge without notice. The informtion contined in the newsletter is expressed in good fith, ut its ccurcy is not gurnteed. Nothing contined in this newsletter is intended to e, nor shll it e construed s, investment dvice, nor is it to e relied upon in mking ny investment or other decision. Prior to mking ny investment decision, you re dvised to consult with your roker, investment dvisor or other pproprite tx or finncil professionl to determine the suitility of ny investment. Neither Min Line Investors, Inc. nor Roert D. McHugh, Jr., Ph.D. Editor shll e responsile or hve ny liility for investment decisions sed upon, or the results otined from, the informtion provided. Copyright 009, Min Line Investors, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Jesus sid to them, I m the red of life; he who comes to Me shll not hunger, nd he who elieves in Me shll never thirst. For I hve come down from heven, For this is the will of My Fther, tht everyone who eholds the Son nd elieves in Him, my hve eternl life; nd I Myself will rise him up on the lst dy. John 6: 5, 8, 0 If you re enjoying your suscription, plese tell friend. Let them know out our free one time 0 dy tril suscription. Here re the symols for Exchnge Trded Funds for the Mjor Indices: DIA Dow Industrils IYT Trnnies SPY S&P 500 GDX HUI Amex Gold ugs* QQQQ NASDAQ 00 GLD Gold IWM Russell 000 SLV Silver EWA Austrli * Note: The GDX ctully trcks the GDM, grouping of 5 mining stocks, ut the GDX hs very high correltion to the HUI so we mention tht s suitle ETF for the HUI. Pge 6 of 6 Pge 6