Modelling challenges in improving the tools for better decision support in forest-based bioeconomy
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1 Modelling challenges in improving the tools for better decision support in forest-based bioeconomy Jari Hynynen Modelling seminar / Jari Hynynen Luonnonvarakeskus
2 Contents 1. Models in decision support 2. Some examples of modelling challenges Models for supporting decision making in Multifunctional and Sustainable Forest Management Models for assessing risks Efficient utilization of Forest Big Data 3. Lessons learned (by trial and error) Modelling seminar / Jari Hynynen Luonnonvarakeskus
3 Role of models in forest management Application of the models Updating the information of forest resources Evaluation of alternative management schedules Scenarios for timber production possibilities Requirements for the model structure Stand description compatible with inventory data Capability to predict the effects of management practices Logical behaviour in extreme stand conditions Model properties Simple description of a tree and a stand Modelling seminar / Jari Hynynen Response functions to silvicultural practices Model design based on knowledge on stand dynamics Luonnonvarakeskus
4 Forest management and wood supply Silvicultural practices regenation precommercial thinning fertilization pruning ditch maintainance Cuttings commercial thinnings regeneration cuttings Forest operations: technology and logistics forwarding biomass recovery secondary haulage photos: Arto Rummukainen, Pentti Niemistö & Erkki Oksanen/Metla Luonnonvarakeskus Modelling seminar / Jari Hynynen
5 Utilization of forest resources Models for supporting decision making in Multifunctional and Sustainable Forest Management Modelling seminar / Jari Hynynen Luonnonvarakeskus
6 MOTTI stand simulator Salminen et al. (2005), Hynynen et al. (2005, 2014) A stand-level analysis tool for assessing the effects of alternative forest management on development of stand and trees profitability of forest management biomass production and carbon sequestration forest biodiversity A workbench for modelers a tool for model building and testing A support tool for stand-level decision making
7 MOTTI- a stand-level decision system User-defined input Stand inventory data Management options Stand simulation Prediction of stand dynamics in varying growth environment including the - impact of environmental chances - impact of forest management practices - impact of genetic gain Regeneration - Growth - Mortality Timber assortment criteria Logging parameters - applied machinery - unit costs Economical parameters Yield Analysis Wood quality Forest economics Carbon - sequestration - footprint Biodiversity Request for reports Output of the results
8 MOTTI Stand Simulator a stand-level analysis tool for assessing the effects of alternative forest management practices on stand development and the profitability of forest management wide range of opportunities to define management practices or management regimes for the whole rotation timber assortments, unit stumpage prices, costs of management practices, discount rate, prediction of stand dynamics growth and yield models applicable to Finnish condititions extensively tested models with the NFI data and data from permanent growth and yield experiments Compatible with the most common forest planning data
9 Simulation of stand dynamics (in addition to growth and yield) Deadwood dynamics (mortality, decomposition of dead wood) (Mäkinen et al 2006) Biomass by tree compartments (stem, foliage, stump, roots) (Repola 2008, 2009) Yield impacts of energy wood recovery (whole-tree harvesting) (Jacobsson et al. 2000) Yield Impacts of climate change (link to FinnFor-model ) (Matala et al. 2006) MOTTI An extended stand-level analysis tool for research purposes Yield impact of genetic gain of cultivated Scots pine stands (based on empirical results on see-orchard seedlots of Scots pine)
10 MOTTI An extended stand-level analysis tool for research purposes Simulation of management practices Energy-wood recovery flexible control of the type or combination of harvested raw material (energy wood pulp wood and saw timber) in thinnings and in final fellings Possibility to run several alternative user-defined management schedules with one command
11 MOTTI An extended stand-level analysis tool for research purposes Forest economics Harvesting costs based on time consumption models and user-defined unit prices of operating machinery A wide range opportunities to control economical parameters prices can be obtained from official statistics or they may be defined by the user (stumpage or road-side prices) Possibility to apply temporal trends for prices and costs Stand-level optimization Alternative optimization algorithms (e.g. Hooke-Jeeves, Picaia)
12 MOTTI An extended stand-level analysis tool for research purposes Analysis of carbon and CO 2 -emissions Carbon in growing stock carbon sequestration to trees Litter production Soil carbon Motti is augmented with Yasso model = > Carbon stock & dynamics in forest soilco2 CO 2 -emission of harvesting and management practices Based on time consumption of machines
13 Environmental changes Models for assessing risks Modelling seminar / Jari Hynynen Luonnonvarakeskus
14 Modeling the dynamics of Root Rot, European Spruce Bark Beetle and wind damages in evenaged Norway Spruce dominated forests Juha Honkaniemi, Tuula Piri, Heli Peltola, Kari Heliövaara, Risto Ojansuu & Risto Kasanen
15 Root rot by Heterobasidion annosum s.l. Aerial and vegetative spread create a challenge for control Decay in Norway spruce, mortality in Scots pine Annual losses hard to estimate Europe: 790 million EUR (Woodward et al. 1998) Wind Wind fall and break trees as well as weaken the root systems Decay increases wind damage risk Annual losses vary Europe: 18.7 million m 3 of wood (Schelhaas et al. 2003) European Spruce Bark Beetle (Ips typographus) Use weakened trees for reproduction During outbreak can infest and kill healthy, living trees Annual losses vary depending on the outbreak status Europe: 2.9 million m 3 of wood (Schelhaas et al. 2003) Juha Honkaniemi Modelling seminar / Jari Hynynen
16 Heterobasidion annosum dispersal to the stand via spores Juha Honkaniemi Modelling seminar / Jari Hynynen
17 H. annosum vegetative spread to subsequent tree generation by mycelia via root systems Juha Honkaniemi Modelling seminar / Jari Hynynen
18 H. annosum spread and decay development Juha Honkaniemi Modelling seminar / Jari Hynynen
19 Increasing wind load after a clearcut of neighboring stand Wind velocity v at time t Juha Honkaniemi Modelling seminar / Jari Hynynen
20 Bark beetle reproduction in the windthrown trees Juha Honkaniemi Modelling seminar / Jari Hynynen
21 Bark beetle outbreak under favorable conditions Juha Honkaniemi Modelling seminar / Jari Hynynen
22 Data acquisition and management Models utilizing Forest Big Data Modelling seminar / Jari Hynynen Luonnonvarakeskus
23 Roundwood trade Modelling data & Input data Models predicting forest structure and dynamics Information for localization and updating of models Silviculture Wood procurement Measurements & observations Guidelines and tutoring Tutoring systems for forest operations Forest management guidelines - thinning quidelines - Un-even-aged management - Etc. Forest planning systems Decision support Input data and definitions: goals, constraints, management practices, assortment rules, prices, costs, etc. Forest company Decision-making and planning Forest policymaker Forest owner Modelling seminar / Jari Hynynen Harvesting or silviculture entrepreneur Councelling organization
24 Airborne laser scanning data Holopainen et al Modelling seminar / Jari Hynynen Luonnonvarakeskus
25 Airborne and terrain laser scanning (ALS and TLS) Luonnonvarakeskus Modelling seminar / Jari Hynynen Holopainen et al. 2014
26 New data sources and modelling Efficient utilization of multisource data from various sources in modelling Laser scanning data in models Information of crown surface in growth models Applying pixel-information (16 * 16 m) in the description of a stand characteristics in models => introdicing uneven spatial stand structure into models) Efficient use of data measured by forest machines in modelling Efficient use of multisource data in forest terrain trafficability monitoring and forecasting Modelling seminar / Jari Hynynen Luonnonvarakeskus
27 Lessons learned by trial and error Some desirable properties of decision suport tools Simplicity A tool has to be user-friendly it is never too simple to use Try to find a balance between simplicity and versatility it is not easy Reliability Report the assumptions underlying the simulations => Define the range of applicability (where to use where not to use) be realistic in your assessment Develop standard procedure for testing and validation routines Ease of system management Modular systems are easier to manage and tailor for different purposes Apply advanced version management system! Document promptly the source code and model architecture a lot of discipline is needed! Modelling seminar / Jari Hynynen Luonnonvarakeskus
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