INTEGRAL FUTURE-ORIENTED INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT OF EUROPEAN FOREST LANDSCAPES
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1 INTEGRAL FUTURE-ORIENTED INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT OF EUROPEAN FOREST LANDSCAPES CAQSIS - April 2014 Christophe Orazio, Rebeca Cordero (EFIATLANTIC) Baptiste Hautdidier, Céline meredieu, Patrick Vallet, Christian Pilaar, François de coligny and IRSTEA team
2 Modelisation d un paysage de ha selon plusieurs scenarios à l aide de SIMMEM Integral modelisation work in France Content Project overview Input data Stand data Forest owner behaviour data Forest ownership (types) Mangement options Scenario Simulations with SIMMEM Initiatlisation Evolution Outputs Conclusion 2
3 Project overview Analyse in a quantitative way potential impact of policies on a landscape and identify more robust policies for sustainable forest management 20 case studies in Europe 1 In France 2 technical WP WP 2 : ecosystem services and landscape modelisation WP3 : Policy assessment, forest owners behavior and backcasting 3
4 Input data / Stand data Poor NFI data available (only Pine/oak) Photo interpretation on 80% of the area by Rebeca MODIS long term series analysis from february 2000 to january 2014 Kmeans algorithms on vegetation indices over years 4
5 Input data / Forest ownership Cadastre provide all owned parcels Social science interview and FORSEE work provide forest owner types Stratified Random sampling provide forest owners types spatial map 5
6 Input data / Forest management options Management options are identified based on actual recommendations They are spatialized according to existing stand For new management options suitability maps are used in the random sampling 6
7 Input data / Forest owners behaviour Scenarios are built from main drivers identified by experts and stakeholders From scenarios we know evolution of demand and incentives Matrix of forest management per forest owner types are built for each scenario 7
8 Simmulation with SIMMEM/ Initialisation Lemoine dune and fagacee are able to initialize from Density, age fertility without Ddom and DG Poor knowledge of fertility on oak It was necessary to build initialisation curves to estimate Dd and Ddoms on stand plateau Accurate for young ages Row estimate on old ages (fertility not considered can be improved) 8
9 Simmulation with SIMMEM/evolution Verbal description are translated into yield table using CAPSIS Problem to set up relative density from french publication (Portuguese RDI used) Quite tricky to build curves Ddom/Rdensity for each yield table Good tools : minimum interval between thinning + max clear-cut area a year (we used 10%) 9
10 Then we run simmem But you all now that! We moved from 10hours to 10 minutes! 10
11 Simmulation with SIMMEM/Outputs Standard models outputs : Age, height, diameters,.. Volume, C, date from last thinning Additional indicators from wrapper Standing value, Fire risk index, stability index,.. 11
12 Conclusion SIMMEM allows to run many CAPSIS models on the same landscape in an efficient way. From outputs, we could easily illustrate trade-offs between services and options Good collaborative tools strong inputs from IRSTEA Improvement needed for INTEGRAL : Fix wind stability index pb Increase cover of input data to 100%? Add eucalyptus and black locust? Validate some of derived indicators. Good points from landscape approach : Landscape constraints : total harvested area Spatialised outputs Promising tool: Switch from a species to other after plantation Have simulation on one plot influenced by others for risk assessment! 12
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