The Path to Commercial Fuel Cell Buses Applying Lessons from History (Audio not available)

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1 Online Webinar May 17, 2012 The Path to Commercial Fuel Cell Buses Applying Lessons from History (Audio not available) Hosted by Sponsored by

2 Housekeeping Items: Recording of Slides: A recording of this webinar and a link to the slides will be sent via to all attendees following the event Submit Questions During the Webinar: Use the question box on your screen Additional Questions After the Webinar: lauren@cte.tv 2

3 Agenda: National Fuel Cell Bus Program CTE new website & features Lessons Learned the Diesel Hybrid Experience Robert Devine, BAE Systems Path to Fuel Cell Bus Commercialization Jaimie Levin, Alameda Contra Costa Transit District (AC Transit) Q&A 3

4 FTA Fuel Cell Technology Research Innovative technology for better transit solutions Transit leader in clean fuels Part of FTA s efforts to improve transit efficiency provide environmentally sustainable transportation solutions Fuel cells for transit reliable, fuel efficient, zero emissions lower operating costs reduced dependence on petroleum (and price fluctuations) 4

5 National Fuel Cell Bus Program (NFCBP) Research, development & demonstration program to advance commercialization Focused on transit needs In cooperation with industry Over $85M Federal funding to date (FY ) Target: 12 year bus, $600K+ 5

6 Where are we now? Fuel cell buses less costly and more reliable over time Multiple technologies & platforms Demonstrations throughout U.S. Buy America compliant buses Supply chain emerging Advances benefit hybrids, battery buses Number of FCEBs Fuel Cell Bus Volumes 6

7 Remaining challenges Cost competitiveness Reliability / durability Integration Hydrogen supply Nascent industry 7

8 Moving forward 11 projects announced in April 2012 Revised targets with DOE New solicitation for FY 2012 funding ($ M) opportunities for transit agencies to get involved Procurements through capital programs 8

9 Fuel Cell Bus Performance Relative to where hybrid bus performance was in 2002, fuel cell bus performance compared favorably to diesel buses in 2011 Sources: July 2002 DOE/NREL, New York City Transit Diesel Hybrid-Electric Buses: Final Report & NREL ZEBA performance data Sept 2011 through March

10 center for transportation and the environment NEW tool! Research state of the technology worldwide Searchable database Background information Current news 10

11 Robert Devine Program Manager BAE Systems 11

12 Hybrid History Of Introduction Source APTA Growing Trend of North America Hybrid Bus Production 12

13 Diesel Electric Hybrid Buses Technology Adoption Projected Hybrid Electric Vehicles Annual Production in 2020 Class 6 8 Hybrid Trucks Hybrid Transit Buses 71,760 14,253 Total Hybrid Market in North America and Europe within 10 years is expected to be 71,000 trucks and 14,000 HD buses In Asia, India and South America the market is expected to be much smaller for truck, but comparable in size for buses in Asia North America and Western Europe Lead the way for Hybrid Bus and Truck Technology Source: 2011 Frost & Sullivan report 13

14 Total Transit Bus Production & Hybrid Penetration Rates Key Observations 0% 1% 7% 6% 3% Stimulus spending (2009) masked market downturn Cyclical market industry lags economic up/downs Gov t revenue is a key indicator for future production rates Hybrid penetration rates appear to be flattening in North America while generally rising in Europe 23% 39% 25% 22% 20% Percentage of transit buses that are hybrids Key Market Drivers: Ridership Total Fleet Size Fuel Prices Gov trevenues 14

15 Value and Benefits of the Technology Bus Price Improving hybrid s value proposition Value / Benefits Lower operating costs Better fuel economy More reliable Reduced maintenance Favorable subsidies reduced cost share Exceeds strict regulations compliance margin Public benefit Significantly reduced emissions Quiet AM pull out, passengers Pathway to lower/zero emissions Time 15

16 Natural Progression to Electric ZEV Change to Electric Accessories Remove Combustion Engine, Add Batteries or Fuel Cell or Trolley Poles Conventional Series Hybrid 16

17 Take Aways Lessons from Hybrid Experience Critical Success Factors for New Technology Introduction Strong supply base committed to technical performance and product maturity Engaged large successful early adopter strong user base Government support incentives to overcome technology cost differentials Strong industry partners, integrators, support and supply base Vision and passion for the technology continually willing to teach and learn 17

18 Jaimie Levin Director of Environmental Technology Alameda Contra Costa Transit District (AC Transit) 18

19 1st Generation Bus ( ) >267,000 Miles >700,000 Passengers 65% Better Fuel Economy 43% GHG Reductions (Reforming Natural Gas; 100% reduction with solar or wind hydrogen) 19

20 Phase 2 Bay Area Demo $65 Million 12 new buses in 2010 and transit agencies (>2,500 vehicles) Shared service Shared training 20

21 3rd Generation Bus > 286,000 miles (>7,000 mi/week) 83% to 100% better fuel economy > 12,000 fuel cell hours 553,000 miles 1st and 3rd generation buses Over 1.8 million passengers in the Bay Area (>100,000/Month) 21

22 18 Line 24 Mile RT UC Campus Berkeley 2.5 mile grade at approximately 5% Albany Oakland Pullout Pull in Total Hours Average Speed Daily Miles Miles/DGE Base Diesel: 4.01 Kg/Day 05:00 00: Miles/Hour 170 Miles 7.36; high of kg 22

23 Benefits Passengers Quiet (Neighborhoods) Smooth No vibration Clean and odorless Drivers (>1000) Range Sustained power Smooth Handling Mechanics (3) Clean Fewer parts Durability U.S. DOT Secretary Ray LaHood 23

24 Passenger Survey 493 Passengers Funded by Federal Transit Administration ACT s Fuel Cell Program 84% Positive Program s effect on opinion of local Government 70% Improved Importance of considering alternative fuels 90% Yes Support expanded fuel cell bus program at AC Transit 81% Yes 24

25 Earlier Stations 85,109 kg Electrolyzer 7,000 kg Onsite Reformer 55,109 kg Mobile: Liquid to Gas w/ Cryogenic Pump 23,000 kg 25

26 Emeryville Station 600 Kg/Day Capacity Solar electrolysis Liquid hydrogen Fast fueling (4kg to 5kg/min) Buses (360 kg/day) Cars (240 kg/day) August 2011 (25,000 kg to date) Temporary shutdown 26

27 Comparisons with Control Diesel Fleet Metric Fuel Cell Sep 2011 thru Mar 2012 Fuel Cell April 2012 Diesel Control Fleet 9/11 3/12 Availability 52% 84.4% 77% Miles per Diesel Gallon Equivalent MBRC Vehicle 1, (7.97 High) N/A ,105 Chargeable 2,212 MBRC Propulsion 2,667 6,126 3,573 MBRC Fuel Cell 6,902 30,630 N/A Fuel Cost/Mile* $1.43/Mile $1.12/Mile $.79/Mile Brake Wear 43k miles N/A 28k and 32k mi Maintenance Cost/Mile* (Shuttle and Training Time) $1.62/Mile N/A $.91/Mile * September 2011 through February

28 Commercial Cost Targets (Industry Analysis) Unit Price ($M) Fuel Cell Electric Bus Commercialization Targets $3.5 $3.0 $2.5 $ $1.5 $1.0 $ $0.0 Number of Fuel Cell Buses Building a Commercially Viable National Fuel Cell Electric Bus Program, FCHEA March <$1.0 Volume Cost

29 End User Key Takeaways Enhanced Performance: Passengers, drivers, mechanics Economic Benefits: Fuel economy and expected life cycle cost reductions Environmental Benefits: Criteria emissions/ghg reductions Reliability and Durability: Steady curve upwards Capital Cost Reduction: Increasing demand economies of scale Infrastructure: Train, Train, Train... Drill, Drill, Drill NOT IF, but WHEN 29

30 Q & A Center for Transportation & the Environment lauren@cte.tv National Fuel Cell Bus Program Christina.Gikakis@dot.gov BAE Systems robert.w.devine@baesystems.com Alameda Contra Costa Transit District (AC Transit) jlevin@actransit.org Hosted by Sponsored by