POWER STATISTICS Data Collection & Reporting

Transcription

1 POWER STATISTICS Data Collection & Reporting Jeannette PABST, Charlotte RENAUD & Giuseppe LORUBIO EURELECTRIC Secretariat Fourth Energy Community Statistics Workshop Vienna, February 2011

2 Outline How does EURELECTRIC use those data? Time Horizons & Geographical scope How are data collected? Functioning of web-based application MESAP Role of NE Statistics & Prospects Role of EURELECTRIC Secretariat What kind of data do we collect? Case Study: Power Statistics vs. NREAPs

3 How EURELECTRIC does use those data?

4 Why do we need independent statistics? To ensure policy positions and lobbying actions based on sound (independent) facts To provide a clear, complete EU-wide picture of the Electricity Sector to EU Institutions So, it is of the utmost importance to EURELECTRIC to collect independent & reliable data!

5 How do we make policymakers understanding our numbers? Communication tools Report(s), Brochure(s), Dedicated website Launching event(s) in Brussels in 2010 in European Parliament in 2011 together with the IEA WEO 2011 Successful positioning/lobbying!

6 Time Horizon & Geographical Scope

7 Time Horizon & Geographical Scope Power Statistics depicts current and projected trends of the European Electricity Sector Current geographical scope: EU-27 + CH, NO, TR Aim in 2011 to include also data from Energy Community (AL, BA, HR, MD, ME, MK, RS, UA) and IS Time Horizon: Historical data: 1980, 1990, 2000, 2008, 2009 Forecasts: 2015, 2020, 2030, 2035

8 How are data collected?

9 Data are directly collected by our members and uploaded via a webbased application

10 Roles and responsibilities 27 MS + CH, N, TR YOU! EURELECTRIC Power Statistics Energy Community Validation Adaptation Control Analysis Modelling US!

11 What kind of data do we collect?

12 What kind of data do we collect? Power statistics focuses on: Structure of the sector Demand Supply Balances Environment

13 1. Structure of the Sector Breakdown of GDP (in bn at the 2000 price level and exchange rate) Population (thousands at year-end) General structure of the sector Number and market share of generation companies Number of TSOs and DSOs Number and market share of supply companies

14 2. Demand 2.1 Annual Energy and Peak Demand (1/2) What does this tell us?

15 2. Demand 2.1 Annual Energy and Peak Demand (2/2) Peak Demand: Winter-Summer shift in some countries due to large-scale air conditioning

16 2. Demand 2.2. Breakdown of total demand (TWh) (1/2) Network Losses: important improvements in new Member States

17 2. Demand 2.2. Breakdown of total demand (TWh) (2/2) but still room for improvement compared to performance of some EU-15 countries

18 3. Supply Max Net Generating Capacity by Primary Energy (MW)

19 RES capacity takes off RES capacity, other then hydro, X 60 between 1980 and 2008 Trend expected to continue up to GW in GW in 2030 Hydro capacity will remain crucial as back-up for intermittent RES Other RES 27% 1,025,149 MW 1,141,676 MW Not specified 1% Nuclear 13% Other RES 33% Not specified 0% Nuclear 14% Hydro 15% Conventional Thermal 44% Hydro 14% Conventional Thermal 39% Source: Power Statistics 2010, EURELECTRIC, Dec. 2010

20 well, already took off! Additional generating capacity: RES dominate 18,000 16,000 14,000 16,252 14,978 NUCLEAR MW 12,000 10,000 8,000 10,472 10,031 8,217 10,724 CONVENTIONAL THERMAL TOTAL RES 6,000 4,000 2, , vs vs OF WHICH HYDRO OF WHICH WIND Source: Power Statistics 2010, EURELECTRIC, Dec. 2010

21 3. Supply Max Net Generating Capacity by Technology (MW)

22 3. Supply CHP Capacity (MW)

23 3. Supply CHP Capacity by Company Type (MW)

24 3. Supply Annual Electricity Production by Primary Energy (TWh)

25 Use them all Low carbon generation sources (RES, hydro, nuclear) will become the major generation source in the next decades % vs. 53% % vs. 40% ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION 2008 (TWh) 3,219.9 TWh Other RES 17% Not Not specified 1% 1% Nuclear Hydro 11% 28% ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION 2030 (TWh) Other RES 22% 4,075.9 TWh Not specified 0% Nuclear 27% Hydro 10% Conventional Thermal 53% Conventional Thermal 40% Source: Power Statistics 2010, EURELECTRIC, Dec. 2010

26 3. Supply Annual Electricity Production by Technology (TWh)

27 3. Supply Electricity Generation in CHP (TWh)

28 4. Balances Capacity Balances only for interconnected part (MW) Capacity Balances Foreseeable not available capacity goes up.. Net transfer, i.e. export, occurs more often and with higher numbers..

29 4. Balances Electricity Balances (TWh) Electricity Balances tells us a lot about the energy policy of the different Member States

30 5. Environment Fuel Consumption for Electricity Generation (PJ) Fuel consumption somehow tricky to analyze as companies try to optimise their plants portfolio and fuel substitution happens pushed by traders anyway, it does give us some interesting information about energy policy choices

31 Increasing electricity efficiency A clear de-coupling of electricity generation from fuel consumption is under way Why? Fossil fuels are being used more efficiently Decreasing share of fossil fuels Source: Power Statistics 2010, EURELECTRIC, Dec. 2010

32 5. Environment Emissions from Electricity Generation (kilotons) Emissions common trends are witnessed emissions have gone (or go) up in the short-medium period in the long run they are bound to go down because of environmental protection awareness and related policies

33 Towards carbon-neutrality CO2 emissions fell by 33% in relative terms between 1980 and 2008, and will be more than halved by 2030 Milestones towards reduced carbon intensity 1980: g/kwh 2008: g/kwh 2030: 230 g/kwh

34 Improved environmental performance From 2 g/kwh to 0.5 g/kwh From 9.3 g/kwh to 1.1 g/kwh

35 Improved environmental performance

36 Case Study: Power Statistics vs. NREAPs

37 EU Directive 2009/28/CE Meant to promote the use of renewables in Europe Mandates to reach a share of 20% of RES in final energy consumption by 2020 RES-Electricity, RES-Transport, RES-Heating/Cooling This translates in roughly 35% of RES-E by 2020 Some requirements: By 30 June 2010: Member States to present National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs) detailing how they get there in terms of RES-E, RES-T and RES-H/C (e.g. trajectories, etc)

38 EU 27 situation according to the NREAPs NREAPs EU MW TWh MW TWh Hydro 117, , <1MW 2, , MW 10 MW 9, , >10MW 96, , Pumping hydro 23, , Geothermal , Solar 26, , PV 25, , concentrated solar power , Tide, Wave Ocean , Wind 84, , Onshore 81, , Offshore 5, , Biomass 22, , solid 14, , biogas 6, , bioliquids 1, , Total 249, ,099 1,210.6 of which intermittent 110, , in %

39 The NREAPs vs. EURELECTRIC s Power Statistics 2010 (PS 2010) 2020 (NREAPs) 2020 (PS2010) MW TWh MW TWh Hydro 135, , <1MW 3, MW 10 MW 12, >10MW 110, Pumping hydro 34, , Geothermal 1, , Solar 91, , PV 84, concentrated solar power 7, Tide, Wave Ocean 2, Wind 214, , Onshore 164, Offshore 41, Biomass 43, , solid 27, , biogas 11, , bioliquids 1, Total 481, , of which intermittent 305, , in %

40 Gaps between NREAPs & PS2010 Installed capacity: EURELECTRIC numbers < Member Stases ones Hydro: 21 GW (!) Solar: 40 GW (!) Wind: 27 GW Biomass: 13 GW Electricity generation: As a consequence of the above, EUR data < MSs ones Hydro: 25 TWh Solar: 41 TWh Wind: 89 TWh Biomass: 76 TWh

41 Some conclusions from NREAPs/PS2010 If capacity factors are taken into account: EURELECTRIC foresaw higher capacity factors for hydro and solar Member States assumed higher capacity factors for wind and biomass In any case, the share of intermittent RES is foreseen to grow Member States have got to respect a binding target higher forecasts The Industry has not (yet) got such a target lower forecasts, more in line with technical and economic constraints and reality

42 THANK YOU! For further information, please visit