Spotlight About 21 GW of upcoming power plants vulnerable due to considerable mine to power plant distance

Transcription

1 Coverage on Spotlight About 21 GW of upcoming power plants vulnerable due to considerable mine to power plant distance CRISIL Research believes that of the 63 GW coal-based capacities expected to be commissioned between 2010 and 2015, about 21 GW will have substantial dependence on rail transport due to the considerable distance of the plants from their identified coal mines. As rail connectivity from the mines to these power plants in poor, it is likely to result in the plants operating at lower load factors, which in-turn will affect their profitability.

2 O Domestic pinion Non-coking coal What is the outlook on demand, supply, and imports of non-coking coal in India over the next five years? Which sectors would drive growth of the non-coking coal segment? Coking coal What is the outlook on demand, supply, and imports of coking coal in India over the next five years? Which sectors would drive growth of the coking coal segment? Prices How much did CIL hike domestic coal prices in February 2011? What has been the impact of the price hike on CIL and coal consuming sectors? How does the domestic coal price compare with international prices? International Demand What is the outlook on demand growth for coking and non-coking coal? Supply What is the outlook on production growth for coking and non-coking coal? Trade-flow

3 Which countries are expected to be main exporters and importers of coal in the world? What is the forecast for regional surplus/deficit of coking and non-coking coal in 2013? Short term price outlook What is our short-term price outlook on coal and what are the reasons underlying the same? What have been the key developments in the coal sector in the domestic and international markets over the last month? Long term price outlook What is the price forecast for global coking and non-coking coal over the next 5 years? Non-coking coal What is the state of the world demand, supply and trade of non-coking coal? What is our outlook on global demand & supply of non-coking coal? What is our expectation of non-coking coal prices over the next five years? Coking coal What is the state of the world demand supply and trade of coking coal? What is our outlook on global demand-supply of coking coal? What is our expectation of coking coal prices over the next five years?

4 I ndustry Information Background What is the break-up of global energy consumption? What are the current levels of global coal reserves? Could I get a geographical break-up of the same? How do prices of coal compare with other fossil fuels? What are the different types and grades of coal? Domestic Scenario in India How much of coal reserves does India have? What is its type and spread? What is the demand-supply scenario of coal in India? Policies and Regulations What are the different legislations that govern the domestic coal industry? What is the current regulatory environment of the industry like? Pricing scenario How are coal prices determined in the domestic and international markets? What is the build-up of the final consumer price in the domestic market? What are the domestic royalty rates of coal? How have they moved? What is E-auction? What are the trends in prices of different grades of coal under this system? washing How does Indian coal compare with that of other countries? How is coal washed? What are the benefits of washing coal?

5 What is the structure of Indian coal washing industry? Logistics of coal What are the different modes of coal transport? What is the current state of operation under each of these modes with respect to coal? What are the plans outlined in each of these modes? International consumption Which are the major coal-consuming countries in the world? What has been the growth in global coking and non-coking coal consumption? What is the region-wise trend in growth of coking and non-coking coal consumption? reserves and production What are the global reserves of coal? Which countries have been the major producers of coal in the world? What has been the growth of global coking and non-coking coal production? What is the region-wise trend in growth of coking and non-coking coal production? Trade flow Which countries are the main exporters and importers of coal in the world? Prices What has been the historical trend in prices of coking and non-coking coal? Country Profiles Australia What is Australia's total coal production and consumption? What is the nature of Australia's coal export trade? Which are the major coal-handling ports in Australia?

6 China What is China's total coal production and consumption? What is the nature of Chinese fuel consumption? Indonesia What is Indonesia's total coal production and consumption? What is the nature of Indonesia's fuel consumption? South Africa What is South Africa's total coal production and consumption? What is the nature of South Africa's fuel consumption? USA What is US total coal production and consumption? What is the nature of US regulatory environment pertaining to the coal sector? Others What is the total coal production and consumption of Japan, South Korea, and Russia? mining techniques What are the different methods employed to mine coal? Which techniques are used to mine coal under these methods? Which other coal-based technologies can be used? Lignite in India Where are the lignite reserves in India and what is their spread? What is the demand and supply situation of lignite in India? Which are the players involved in lignite mining in India? Key developments

7 D ata and Statistics Demand-supply - Domestic Domestic prices Demand-supply - International International prices

8 P layer Profiles Domestic Industry Structure CIL ECL CCL MCL WCL NCL SECL BCCL SCCL International Peabody Energy Rio Tinto China Shenhua Arch BHP Billiton Xstrata

9 I mpact Analysis CIL price hike How much did CIL hike domestic coal prices in February, 2011? What has been the impact of the price hike on CIL and the end-consumer sectors like power, steel etc? Floods in Australia What is the impact of the floods in Australia on coal prices and its effect of end-use sectors? Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami Which fuels are likely to replace the closed nuclear power capacity in Japan? What will be the impact on spot LNG prices? What will be the impact on international coal prices? Will international crude oil prices get affected?

10 T hematic Studies Indian players going abroad Introduction Which are the main countries from where India presently imports coal and what is the quality of this coal? What is the international coal trade flow currently like? What are the different costs involved in importing coal from a foreign country? Indonesia Which are the major coal mining locations in Indonesia and what are the quality differences of coal inn these regions? What is the built-up of cost of export from Indonesia? Which are the major mining regulations currently applicable in the country? South Africa Which is the major coal mining location in South Africa? What is the built-up of cost of export from South Africa? Which are the major mining regulations currently applicable in the country? Australia Which are the major coal mining locations in Australia? What is the built-up of cost of export from Australia? Which are the major mining regulations currently applicable in the country? Conclusion What would be the comparative cost advantage of importing coal from any of these countries? Why? What would be the resultant power tariffs from coal imported from these countries?

11 Mozambique What is the outlook on imports of coal from Mozambique over the medium to long term? Open cast mining Demand for mining equipments How important is open cast mining in India? What are the different types of mining equipments required in open cast mining? How is the demand of open cast mining equipment derived? What is the order potential for different types of open cast mining equipments? Project economics What are the typical returns of mining coal from an open cast mine? washeries Project economics What are the typical returns for a coal washery plant? Captive coal blocks Executive summary Production outlook How has progress on captive coal block development been since the inception of captive coal allocation policy? What will be the contribution of captive coal blocks to nationwide raw coal production over the next five years? Which end-use sectors will benefit the most from incremental captive coal production? What will be the extent of private sector participation in captive coal production?

12 Profitability What kind of indicative project IRR can one expect on captive coal projects? How sensitive is project IRR on a standalone coal mining project to transfer price and operating cost? How sensitive is project IRR on a standalone coal mining project to grade of coal and stripping ratio? How does profitability on standalone coal and power projects fluctuate at various coal transfer prices? Quick update on regulations Key conclusions & risks Logistical challenges in coal What is the state of the coal transportation infrastructure in India? Is coal infrastructure growing in-line with power capacity additions? What is the total upcoming power capacity that will be the most affected due to poor railway infrastructure?