Mineral Deposits and their Global Strategic Supply. Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous 14 December 2011

Transcription

1 Mineral Deposits and their Global Strategic Supply Andrew Mackenzie Andrew Mackenzie Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous 14 December 2011

2 Disclaimer Reliance on Third Party Information The views expressed here contain information that has been derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. This presentation should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by BHP Billiton. Forward Looking Statements This presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 regarding future events and the future financial performance of BHP Billiton. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees or predictions of future performance, and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond our control, and which may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the statements contained in this presentation. For more detail on those risks, you should refer to the sections of our annual report on Form 20-F for the year ended 30 June 2011 entitled Risk factors, Forward looking statements and Operating and financial review and prospects filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. No Offer of Securities No Offer of Securities Nothing in this release should be construed as either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell BHP Billiton securities in any jurisdiction.

3 Agenda Growing prosperity p for more peoplep Everything we need to grow is abundant in the Earth s crust Ineffective natural resource governance may limit supply Human ingenuity it finds new ways to supply natural resources Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 3

4 Agenda Growing prosperity p for more peoplep Everything we need to grow is abundant in the Earth s crust Ineffective natural resource governance may limit supply Human ingenuity it finds new ways to supply natural resources Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 4

5 Population growth World population (million) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Year Source: US Census Bureau, UN Statistics. Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 5

6 Rising living standards Global GDP per capita (2005 real US$ 000, PPP basis) 30 Actual Forecast Year Sources: GDP data for from De Long, 1998, "Estimates of World GDP, One Million B.C. - Present" (Dept Economics, U.C. Berkeley). GDP Data for from Global Insight WES. Population data for from Grubler, Arnulf "Energy transitions." In: Encyclopaedia of Earth. Eds. Cutler J. Cleveland (Washington, D.C. National Council for Science and the Environment). Population data for from Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 6

7 Long term economic growth despite short term volatility Global GDP growth rate (% per annum) 6 5 Developed economies Developing economies Year Source: 1900 to1980 J. Bradford De Long ( Estimates of World GDP, 1998); 1980 to 2010 IMF World Economic Outlook Database; 2010 to 2025 Forecast Global Insight. Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 7

8 Chinese GDP is set to grow substantially to 2030 Global GDP per capita 1 (2005 real US$ 000, PPP basis) 50 Bubble size = GDP of US$5 trillion (real 2005 PPP) Australia Canada Japan South Korea Chile South Africa Japan 1980 Russia US US 1980 Brazil Eurozone India China China 2030 India ,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Population (million persons) Source: Global Insight; BHP Billiton analysis. 1. All figures for 2009 unless mentioned otherwise. Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 8

9 Agenda Growing prosperity p for more peoplep Everything we need to grow is abundant in the Earth s crust Ineffective natural resource governance may limit supply Human ingenuity it finds new ways to supply natural resources Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 9

10 Commodity intensity evolve with economic development Demand index Emerging economies Developed economies Corn and soybean 200 Meat 150 Electricity c ty Copper 100 Steel GDP per capita (2005 real US$ 000, PPP basis) Source: World Bank; Brook Hunt; CRU; IISI; Global Insight; CISA; worldsteel; JBS; IEA; BHP Billiton analysis. 1. The demand intensity index represents the volume consumption per capita consumption, 1968 as 100 for each of the commodities, based on the USA experience. Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 10

11 Crustal abundance of some key commodities Economic value in-situ in large scale mines (parts per million) Precious Metals Base Metals Bulk Commodities 1,000,000 Mn K U Zn Fe Al 100,000 Cu 10,000 Pb 1,000 Ag Range of economic values in-situ in large scale mines 1 0 Au ,000 10, ,000 Average Crustal Abundance (parts per million) Source: Crustal abundance for precious & base metals Levinson A.A. (1974) Introduction to Exploration Geochemistry (Applied Publishing, Calgary), BHP Billiton analysis. Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 11

12 What we know about crustal resources Mineral Inventory Mineral Resource Undiscovered Mineralisatio on Range of Potential Mineralisation (Based on Exploration Results) Advanced Ex xploration Ore Reserve Increasing geological knowledge and confidence The range of Potential Mineralisation is estimated from geological information including boreholes, outcrops and geophysical information. The potential quantity is conceptual in nature, there has been insufficient exploration to define a Mineral Resource and it is uncertain if further exploration will result in the determination of a Mineral Resource. Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 12

13 What we will discover about crustal resources Mineral Inventory Mineral Resource undiscovered mineralisation Undiscovered Mineralisation Range of Potential Mineralisation (Based on Exploration Results) Advanced Exploration Ore Reserve Increasing geological knowledge and confidence Increasing geological knowledge and confidence Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 13

14 Estimated available iron ore Years of global supply ppy Iron Ore Province 5 BHP Billiton estimates of available iron ore from selected basins assuming material >30% Fe is economic in the future. Around 50% of the current global supply of iron is derived from direct ship ores at grades of >60% Fe. In some locations, ores at grades as low as 30% (eg China, Canada and Russia) are currently mined for domestic markets.thisestimateassumesthat, over time, cut-off grades migrate towards 30% Fe and that 2-3% of the volume of the iron bearing sedimentary formations of the major basins is ultimately extractable. This implies a potential for ~500 years of supply based on current demand. Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 14

15 Estimated available metallurgical coal Years of global supply ppy Metallurgical coal basins BHP Billiton estimates for available metallurgical coal including hard (HCC), semi-hard (SHCC), semi-soft (SSCC) coking and pulverised coal injection (PCI) qualities. Rates assumed for conversion of in-situ resource to product vary from basin to basin in the range of 10-70% depending on nature and disposition of known geology and washery yields. Total is estimated as ~80 years of supply at current rates of consumption. Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 15

16 Estimated available copper Years of global supply ppy 4 Copper province BHP Billiton estimates of copper available from selected provinces. Extrapolations from estimated reserves and resources published by the USGS (2010) with the application of factors to convert in-situ metal to product depending on knowledge of deposit styles and likely geological disposition. Total is 175 years including 10 years of supply from deep ocean sources. Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 16

17 Estimated available potash Years of global supply ppy 5 Potash basin BHP Billiton estimated potash available from selected basins applying a depth constraint of 2500m. The assumed conversion of in-situ to product potash varies from 3-15% depending upon knowledge of seam characteristics and geological disposition. Production is assumed to be derived from conventional, and solution mining plus surface brine extraction methods. This implies a potential for ~900 years of supply based on current demand. Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 17

18 Estimated supply Expressed as years of estimated global supply at current production rates Estimated mine life Estimated orebody life Estimated available supply Iron Ore Metallurgical Coal Copper Potash Sources: based on US Geological Survey (2010) for reserves and resources (in italics). Other data is BHP Billiton estimates. Estimated mine-life and estimated orebody life are based on in-situ material whereas estimated future supply allows for conversion of in-situ mineralization to product. Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 18

19 Agenda Growing prosperity p for more peoplep Everything we need to grow is abundant in the Earth s crust Ineffective natural resource governance may limit supply Human ingenuity it finds new ways to supply natural resources Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 19

20 Resource governance affects prices Spot Price of Oil US$ per barrel Price Nominal (US$/barrel) Price Real (US$/barrel Jan 2011) Year Source: Arabian Light posted at Ras Tanura; Brent dated. Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 20

21 Resource governance affects inventory OPEC Non-OPEC Former Soviet Union Year Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 21

22 Agenda Growing prosperity p for more peoplep Everything we need to grow is abundant in the Earth s crust Ineffective natural resource governance may limit supply Human ingenuity it finds new ways to supply natural resources Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 22

23 Discovery technology then, Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 23

24 . and now Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 24

25 Technology extraction Copper production Run of mine grade (million tonnes per annum) (Cu %) Direct ore Reverberatory furnace Flotation ti Cu production Run of Mine grade 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% % Bulk open pit mining Central Africa Copper Belt peak Flash furnace Acidic leach, solvent extraction, electrowinning In pit crushing Bacterial leaching 25% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0 0.0% Source: US Geological Survey ( ), Brook Hunt (1984 onwards). Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 25

26 Technology - transportation Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 26

27 Technology - metals substitution high voltage copper cable high voltage aluminium cable steel engine block aluminium engine block Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 27

28 Recycling a source of secondary supply Energy saving relative to primary metal production UK recycling rates for metals Zinc Steel Lead Copper Aluminium 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Source: British Metals Recycling Association. Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 28

29 Environmental outcomes Direct impacts of mineral supply Commencing mine rehabilitation after metallurgical coal mining Indirect impacts of mineral demand Low carbon emission electricity generation Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 29

30 Summary Growing prosperity for more people Everything we need to grow is abundant in the Earth s crust Ineffective natural resource governance may limit supply Human ingenuity finds new ways to supply natural resources Global companies have a role to play Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 30

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