Global Supply Chain Risks

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1 AVM John Blackburn AO (Retd) Global Supply Chain Risks Australia s Liquid Fuel Security

2 AVM John Blackburn AO (Retd) Global Supply Chain Risks Australia s Liquid Fuel Security I will discuss: Global / Australian trends and implications Australia s Fuel supply Chain Risks and Resilience Defence - what actions?

3 NRMA Fuel Security Project Is there a 28Feb13 Report How big is the Strategies to deal with the

4 Australia s Oil Supply

5 5

6 Fuel Sources The UK s projected import dependency will increase to 44 per cent of the consumption of oil by That level of imports has been assessed as having a significant impact on the UK s oil security

7 Australia, with only 71 days holdings, was the only country out of 28 member countries that failed to meet its 90-day net oil import stockholding levels. So, the world s ninth-largest energy producer is the lowest and only noncompliant stockholder in the IEA.

8 The in-country stockholdings of oil and refined fuel is in the order of 23 days Supply chain depth in States with no refineries??? Defence stockholdings ANAO Report No

9 Point of Sale Stocks?

10 Do we have a EWP - Australia is linked into well-established global supply chains to meet our liquid fuel needs and import dependency itself does not imply an energy security threat. LFVA Given that there has been no major disruption to liquid fuels supplies in Australia for decades, as well as Australia s competitive fuel prices by international standards, it would be reasonable to conclude an appropriate balance is being maintained by fuel suppliers. RISKS? Reliability vs Security Issue of Systemic Risk?

11 Supply Chain Vulnerabilities Sources... Trade... Shipment.. Ports. Refining.Transport Storage. Point of Supply Demand

12 Supply Chain Vulnerabilities Sources... Trade... Shipment.. Ports. Refining.Transport Storage. Point of Supply Demand Scenario analysed in 2011 LFVA: Historical Market Performance Scenario analysed in 2011 LFVA: A 30 day Singapore production interruption

13 Supply Chain Vulnerabilities What isn t analysed in the EWP Sources... Trade... Shipment.. Ports. Refining.Transport Storage. Point of Supply Demand Trading Systems economic / banking system failures Shipment shipping companies, conflict scenarios, state/non-state threats Ports / Refineries capacity, accidents / incidents, natural disasters, industrial action, equipment failures, lack of surplus tankage. Ownership? Transport lack of rail transport capacity, limitations of road transport systems Depots / points of supply reduction in supply chain stocks

14 Supply Chain Vulnerabilities What isn t analysed in the EWP Sources... Trade... Shipment.. Ports. Refining.Transport Storage. Point of Supply Demand Primary sources of processed fuels for Australia

15 Supply Chain Vulnerabilities What isn t analysed in the EWP Sources... Trade... Shipment.. Ports. Refining.Transport Storage. Point of Supply Demand Port Vulnerabilities e.g. Port Adelaide Darwin?

16 Supply Chain Vulnerabilities What isn t analysed in the EWP Sources... Trade... Shipment.. Ports. Refining.Transport Storage. Point of Supply Demand Ports / Refineries closure of Australian Refineries? 28 % loss in Potential cumulative loss of 42% if Shell Geelong closes in 2014 Views have been expressed that Zero refining capacity in Australia is acceptable Ownership of overseas refineries? E.g. SRC Jurong Island Refinery 285,000 bbl/d - 50% owned by Chinese oil giant PetroChina SLOC issues depending on regional stability? Potential loss of ability to refine Australian Oils in country Loss of source diversity.

17 Assumptions The recent findings of a Japanese Government panel reviewing the Fukishima nuclear disaster, which followed the devastating tsunami that struck Japan in 2011, are worth reflecting on: The utility and regulatory bodies were overly confident that events beyond the scope of their assumptions would not occur and were not aware that measures to avoid the worst situation were actually full of holes. Our society is about a month deep and getting shallower

18 So What? This is but one example of growing systemic risk in global supply chains e.g. US Dept of Homeland Security Supply Chain Analysis on Energy / Food (supply and production) / Medical Supplies It is important for all of us to understand our growing systemic vulnerabilities and conduct appropriate risk analysis / business continuity planning What can Defence do? Understand your supply chains, dependencies and risks Stock holdings - Defence vs Commercial / Public? Much is outside Defence s control - hence the need for your broad based support to address the issues it will be a team effort across Government and Industry. Our society is about a month deep and getting shallower

19 NRMA Fuel Security Project Is there a 28Feb13 Report How big is the Strategies to deal with the

20 NRMA Fuel Security Project Political Actions? Energy Policy Political Actions? Energy Policy Is there a How big is the Strategies to deal with the 28Feb13 Report 2014 NESA? 2015 Energy WP?

21 NRMA Fuel Security Project Political Actions? Energy Policy Political Actions? Energy Policy Is there a How big is the Strategies to deal with the 28Feb13 Report 2014 NESA? 2015 Energy WP? Reliability vs Security of Supply

22 NRMA Fuel Security Project Political Actions? Energy Policy Political Actions? Energy Policy Is there a How big is the Strategies to deal with the 28Feb13 Report 2014 NESA? 2015 Energy WP? Reliability vs Security of Supply Just in Time Just in Case?

23 Australia s Liquid Fuel Security As the world s ninth-largest energy producer, Australia has abundant renewable and non- renewable energy resources. We are heavily dependent on imports of refined petroleum products and crude oil to meet our liquid fuel demand. This import dependency has increased in recent years. The very small consumption stockholdings of oil and liquid fuels in Australia, combined with what appears to be a narrow assessment of our fuel supply chain vulnerabilities, does not provide much confidence that the strategic risks to our fuel supply chain are well understood and mitigated by our nation s leaders, the business community or the population at large. In essence, we have adopted a she ll be right approach to fuel security, relying on the historical performance of global oil and fuel markets to provide in all cases. Our society is at significant risk if any of the assumptions contained in the vulnerability assessments made to date prove false. We would not be the first country to get our assumptions wrong in that respect, history can be relied upon.

24 AVM John Blackburn AO (Retd) Global Supply Chain Risks Australia s Liquid Fuel Security

25 The times they are a changing

26 Back up Slides John Blackburn

27 How big is the The Proposed 2014 NESA Scope Broader risk assessment of Australia s liquid fuel supply vulnerabilities to examine the supply chain risks: in a range of peacetime and conflict scenarios: wider maritime SLOC vulnerabilities EROI / price issues Encompass the whole of the liquid fuel supply chain import and refining infrastructure: port capacities / storage issues /ageing infrastructure lack of redundancy / single points of failure in supply chain? Dependencies utilities electricity Address Market factors, e.g.: lack of diversity in transport fuel types i.e. oil dependence? closed import markets? market size lack of competitiveness Assess implications of loss of refining capacity: lack of source diversity / ownership risks Ability to refining of Australian oil? Participation by DRET, Defence, AGD, DAFF, Dept Transport, Industry and Consumer Group representation.

28 Australia s Liquid Fuel Supply Chain % Refined Product Overseas Sources A 80 % Oil 71 days = commercial stocks /A - B net import rate 71 30% net imports = approx 22 days consumption B Export Australian Sources Oil 20 % Refining 75 % There are no public stockholdings achieving 90 days would only increase consumption by approximately 5 days Australia

29

Australia s Liquid Fuel Security Part 2

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