THE EXECUTIVE BOARD 26 OCTOBER 2016

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1 THE EXECUTIVE BOARD 6 OCTOBER 6

2 GDP growth for trading partners Export-weighted. Quarterly change. Percent. Q 9 Q4 ) Trading partners Advanced economies Emerging economies Projections MPR 3/ ) Projections for 6 Q3 9 Q4 from MPR 3/6. Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank -

3 Actual and forward money market rates Trading partners. Percent. Q 9 Q4 ).5 Expected 4 October 6 Expected MPR 3/ ) Broken lines show forward rates at 4 October 6 and 6 September 6 (MPR 3/6), respectively. Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank 3

4 Yields on -year government bonds Percent. January 4 4 October MPR 3/ US Germany UK Jan-4 Jul-4 Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 - Source: Bloomberg 4

5 Oil price USD per barrel. January December 9 ) Futures prices October 6 Futures prices MPR 3/ ) Futures prices (broken lines) November/December 6 December 9. Sources: Statistics Norway, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

6 Exchange rate (I-44) Import-weighted exchange rate index. January 5 4 October 6 95 I-44 Projections MPR 3/6 Average Q4 MPR 3/ Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Source: Norges Bank 6

7 Three-month Nibor spread Percentage points. January 5 4 October 6 ) Three-month Nibor spread.8 Projections MPR 3/6.6 MPR 3/ Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Jan-7 Jul-7 ) Projections for 6 Q3 9 Q4 (broken line) from MPR 3/6. Source: Norges Bank 7

8 GDP for mainland Norway and regional network s indicator of output growth Quarterly change. Percent. 4 Q 6 Q4 ) Mar-4 Sep-4 Mar-5 Sep-5 Mar-6 Sep-6 ) Projections for 6 Q3 6 Q4 (broken lines). Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank GDP, mainland Norway Regional network SAM October

9 Output growth in regional network Reported and expected growth. August survey. Annualised. Percent Domestic. oriented mfg. Export oriented mfg. Oil serv. domest. market Oil serv. export market Output growth past three months Expected output growth next sixth months Construction Retail trade Commerc. services Househ. services Source: Norges Bank 9

10 Unemployment as a percentage of the labour force LFS ) and NAV ). Seasonally adjusted. January December 6 3) NAV LFS NAV including employment schemes Projections MPR 3/ ) Labour Force Survey. ) Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration. 3) NAV projections for October December 6 (broken lines). Sources: NAV, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

11 Employment rate for core group Employed persons aged 5 54, measured by the LFS, as a percentage of the total for this age group in the population. 995 Q 6 Q3 ) ) Monthly observation for July used for 6 Q3. Source: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Average 995 Q - 6 Q

12 Fiscal impulse Change in the structural non-oil deficit. Percentage of trend GDP for mainland Norway. 7 ) PPR MPR 3/6 Gjennomsnitt Average ) Projections for 6 and 7. Source: Ministry of Finance -

13 Household consumption of goods Seasonally adjusted volume index. January 4 August Jan-4 Jul-4 Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Source: Statistics Norway 3

14 Hotel overnight stays Average for past months. In thousands. January 4 August 6 By purpose 4 By country of residency Holiday, leisure Norway, l. h. s. Business, course, conference Abroad, r. h. s Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 4

15 Building permits Floor space for dwellings. In m. Seasonally adjusted. January 5 September Issued permits Trend Source: Statistics Norway 5 5

16 House prices Percent. January September 6 3 Seasonally adjusted monthly change, right-hand scale 5 Twelve-month change, left-hand scale Sources: Real Estate Norway, Finn.no and Eiendomsverdi -5 6

17 House prices in the largest cities Twelve-month change. Percent. January September Oslo Bergen Trondheim Stavanger Tromsø Kristiansand Sources: Real Estate Norway, Finn.no and Eiendomsverdi - 7

18 Credit to households Twelve-month change. Percent. January 4 August Jan-4 Jul-4 Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Source: Statistics Norway 8

19 Credit demand from households ) and nonfinancial enterprises ) Change in demand from previous quarter 3). 7 Q4 6 Q Households -.5 Non-financial companies Next three months ) Mortgage loans ) Total loans to non-financial enterprises 3) = Up a lot, = Up a little, = Approximately unchanged, - = Down a little, - = Down a lot. Source: Norges Bank

20 CPI-ATE. Total and by supplier sector Twelve-month change. Percent. January 4 December 6 ) CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods Domestically produced good and services Projections MPR 3/6 Jan-4 Jul-4 Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 ) Projections for October December 6 from MPR 3/6. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

21 THE EXECUTIVE BOARD 6 OCTOBER 6

THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN KRISTIANSAND, 3 OCTOBER 2014

THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN KRISTIANSAND, OCTOBER Norges Bank is the central bank of Norway «It devolves upon the Storting to supervise the monetary affairs of the Realm» The Constitution