EIENDOMSVERDI. The housing market update October. Copyright Eiendomsverdi

Transcription

1 EIENDOMSVERDI The housing market update October

2 Executive summary Prices fell in every part of the country including Oslo the strongest region Volumes were low, in fact this was the lowest October volumes since 2010 However due to the strong start to 2015 YTD volumes remain at All Time highs Year/Year growth falls for yet another month and has been trening sharply down throughout 2015 The fall in Stavanger is approaching 10 percent from the top Unsold stock is still low, but now higher than same time last year and they are moving further into All Time high territories in Rogaland Despite a weakening housing market housing starts continue to grow

3 October the HPI down 1.2 percent down 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted

4 Year/Year growth rate falls to 5,6%

5 Eiendom Norge House Price Index summary: The market falls for the second month in a row This is one of the weakest October since the financial crises Year/Year growth rate falls further to 5.6% On a seasonally adjusted basis the fall is still marginal 0.1% Table 1. Summary Eiendom Norge House Index Eiendom Norge Index Index (Jan 03 = 100) 224,3 Change oktober ,2 % Change oktober ,0 % Change oktober ,5 % Change september ,9 % Change august ,5 % Year over Year 5,6 % 5 Years 31,3 % Price Change since previous all time high -2,1 % Price Change since previous trough 13,7 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

6 The house price index, segmented by housing types

7 House prices by housing types Detached weakest segment But also apartment prices fell by more than one percent All segments saw falling prices Table 2. Summary by property type Detached Terraced Apartments Index (Jan 03 = 100) 219,3 227,0 225,8 Change oktober ,8 % -0,3 % -1,1 % Change oktober ,1 % -0,1 % 0,1 % Change oktober ,7 % -1,0 % -1,6 % Change september ,7 % -0,9 % -1,0 % Change august ,9 % 4,0 % 1,1 % Year over Year 5,1 % 4,6 % 6,1 % 5 Years 25,5 % 27,2 % 35,3 % Price Change since previous all time high -2,4 % -1,2 % -2,1 % Price Change since previous Trough 13,1 % 11,2 % 14,6 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

8 House prices by selected counties

9 House prices by selected counties All regions saw falling prices in October Oslo still the strongest market but prices fell by 0.9 percent Year/Year growth rate for Oslo fell below 10 percent but still the strongest market by far Rogaland still the weakest market falling by 2 percent. Year/Year growth rate moved further into negative territory reaching -2.6 percent. Table 3. Summary by selected counties Oslo Hordaland Sør-Trøndelag Rogaland Nordland Vest-Agder Hedmark Index (Jan 03 = 100) 229,8 256,8 242,1 262,1 243,3 217,2 211,3 Change oktober ,9 % -1,3 % -1,2 % -2,0 % -1,0 % -1,2 % -1,5 % Change oktober ,4 % 0,1 % -0,1 % -0,7 % -0,3 % -0,3 % 0,2 % Change oktober ,8 % -1,3 % -1,3 % -1,7 % -1,3 % -2,0 % -1,3 % Change september ,6 % -1,0 % -1,0 % -1,7 % -0,9 % -1,3 % -1,0 % Change august ,7 % 2,5 % 2,1 % 2,1 % 3,2 % 2,8 % 3,2 % Year over Year 9,7 % 6,3 % 4,5 % -2,6 % 4,8 % 3,3 % 5,0 % 5 Years 41,7 % 34,2 % 38,2 % 17,8 % 32,2 % 10,4 % 24,8 % Price Change since previous all time high -1,4 % -2,3 % -2,2 % -5,7 % -1,9 % -2,5 % -2,5 % Price Change since previous Trough 18,2 % 15,8 % 12,4 % 1,1 % 14,0 % 9,6 % 14,8 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

10 Apartments in selected cities

11 Summary apartments in the big cities: Strongest market this month was Drammen But Year/Year Oslo still outperforms Stavanger the weakest market for yet another month and Year/year this is by far the weakest market, falling by almost 5 percent Year/Year growth rates in both Kristiansand and Trondheim are approaching zero Table 4. Summary apartments big cities Oslo Bergen Trondheim Stavanger Kristiansand Tromsø Drammen Bodø Index (Jan 03 = 100) 230,0 261,5 237,8 269,8 214,2 245,7 243,5 230,6 Change oktober ,9 % -1,5 % -1,3 % -2,0 % -0,9 % -1,8 % -0,5 % -1,2 % Change oktober ,4 % 0,2 % -0,1 % -0,8 % -0,4 % 0,8 % 0,2 % 0,2 % Change oktober ,8 % -1,1 % -1,4 % -1,9 % -2,3 % -1,0 % -1,5 % -1,3 % Change september ,6 % -1,2 % -1,3 % -2,2 % -1,6 % -1,3 % -1,0 % -1,2 % Change august ,5 % 1,1 % 0,7 % -0,1 % 0,8 % 0,9 % 0,7 % 1,3 % Year over Year 9,9 % 6,7 % 3,8 % -4,7 % 3,5 % 5,8 % 6,9 % 4,5 % 5 Years 42,8 % 38,1 % 38,9 % 16,6 % 8,7 % 49,3 % 48,0 % 38,7 % Price Change since previous all time high -1,5 % -2,7 % -2,5 % -8,6 % -2,5 % -3,0 % -1,6 % -2,4 % Price Change since previous Trough 73,2 % 72,4 % 75,5 % 48,2 % 27,9 % 70,6 % 80,5 % 59,3 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi

12 Unsold stock

13 Unsold stock in Oslo and Bergen

14 Unsold stock in Trondheim and Stavanger

15 Age of inventory (unsold stock)

16 Volumes in October falling from last year

17 Year to date volumes remain on an All Time high

18 Time on the market

19 Prices in Norway, UK, Sweden, Denmark and the USA Source: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Composite 20, Realkredittrådet, Hometrack, Statistics Sweden, Eiendomsverdi

20 Sell/ask spread: 2.0 percent

21 The sell-ask spread in Oslo, Trondheim, Bergen and Stavanger

22 Sell-ask spread in Tromsø, Drammen, Kristiansand and Bodø

23 Summary the sell-ask spread The sell/ask spread narrows further Oslo is still the region with the highest spread but the spread has been narrowing every month since the summer Every region saw spreads movin in a negative direction Sellers in Tromsø joined sellers in Kristiansand and Stavanger in not achieving their asking prices The spread in Stavanger is closing up on - 5 percent Table 6 Summary (Final Selling Price - Ask Price) / Ask Price Oslo Bergen Trondheim Stavanger Kristiansand Tromsø Drammen Bodø Norway okt. 15 6,6 % 2,1 % 2,1 % -4,2 % -0,1 % -1,4 % 3,5 % 1,8 % 2,0 % Average 4,9 % 4,5 % 2,6 % 1,9 % 1,4 % -0,5 % 2,3 % 1,6 % 2,2 % All-time high 10,6 % 11,8 % 7,8 % 10,2 % 10,0 % 4,0 % 8,2 % 5,6 % 6,2 % Date All time high ( ) jul. 15 jan. 05 feb. 13 aug. 06 feb. 07 feb. 07 jan. 13 sep. 06 aug. 06 All-time low -6,4 % -5,1 % -5,9 % -6,5 % -7,1 % -8,9 % -3,3 % -7,7 % -5,8 % Date All time low ( ) des. 08 des. 08 nov. 08 nov. 08 des. 08 okt. 08 jan. 09 des. 08 des. 08 Source: Eiendomsverdi

24 Housing starts in Norway for September Source:SSB

25 12 month rolling rate Source:SSB

26 Eiendomsverdi s estimates: transaction prices over - estimated by 0.3 %

27 Contact information Eiendomsverdi AS Trelastgaten 3 PB Sentrum, N Oslo Tel: Fax: post@eiendomsverdi.no Housing Research Sigmund Aas Tel: saa@eiendomsverdi.no Housing Research Anders Lund Tel: al@eiendomsverdi.no