Geoff Riley. Head of Economics, Eton College Co-Founder of

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1 Geoff Riley Head of Economics, Eton College Co-Founder of

2 Green Shootsor Heading for a slump?

3 Outline of today s presentation Recession winners and losers Recession -causes and policy responses When will recession end? Prospects for the North East economy

4 Recession Winner or Loser? Example Seed and fertiliser shops Steel producers DVD home delivery services Chocolate Private healthcare Sales on ebay Sales in pizza restaurants Home coffee-makers Membership at fitness clubs Lipstick manufacturers Sales Up or Down? UP DOWN UP UP DOWN DOWN DOWN UP DOWN UP

5 What went wrong? Housing bubble burst Financial crisis Large fall in asset prices Fallout from higher oil & food prices Collapse in business & consumer confidence Steep decline in world trade and investment

6 Property and share values slumped s UK House Prices FTSE 100 and Average UK House Prices FTSE 100 index (bottom pane) Average UK house price (top pane) FTSE 100 Index Index Source: Reuters EcoWin

7 Spike in oil prices generated inflation World Crude Oil Price - US Dollars Per Barrel US dollars US dollars per barre el Jan May Sep Jan 05 May Sep Jan 06 May Sep Jan 07 May Sep Jan 08 May 09 Sep Source: Reuters EcoWin 0

8 Job insecurity prompted spending cull 80 Unemployment Expectations Net % balance of people expecting higher unemployment in the next year Net balance Source: Reuters EcoWin

9 Sentiment drives consumption 10 Consumer Confidence % balance of responses - are you more or less optimistic about prospects for the economy? Index Source: Reuters EcoWin

10 During this recession... So far Biggest fall in output since the 1930s Over a million jobs lost More than 1 million NEETs Collapse in business investment spending Inflation in the UK is now negative

11 Biggest fall in GDP since 1930s The Economic Cycle - Growth in UK National Output Annual percentage change in GDP at constant prices Percent Source: UK Statistics Commission

12 Unemployment will continue to rise 12.0 UK Economic Growth and Unemployment Annual percentage change in GDP at constant prices, percentage unemployed Unemployment (% of the labour force) Percent Real GDP (Annual % Change) Source: UK Statistics Commission

13 How to get out of this mess?

14 The Policy Response to Recession Deep cuts in interest rates Quantitative easing ( 175bn+) Bank bail outs and state ownership Incentives e.g. VAT cut and the car scrappage scheme Huge rise in government borrowing Depreciation of Pound e.g. against Euro and US dollar

15 Bank of England cut interest rates Percent

16 Percent But who pays the base rate?

17 Cash for clunkers has had an effect cent Perc

18 Big Risks Lie Ahead Huge debt problem personal and public High unemployment Risks of deflation UK is exposed to rising oil and food prices Bounce back in house prices is dangerous

19 Still much debt left to repay Insolvencies and Consumer Debt Outstanding Individual insolvencies, seasonally adjusted Insolvencies Personal Insolvencies (number per quarter) Outstanding Consumer Credit bn (billions) billions Source: Reuters EcoWin

20 The fiscal position is dire 55.0 UK Government Spending and Taxation Measured as a percentage of national income (09-10 is a forecast from the OECD) Per cent of GDP Government Spending Total Tax Revenue Source: OECD World Economic Outlook

21 Debt mountain no free lunch % of GDP Gross Government Debt (% of GDP) UK Government Borrowing and Debt Budget balance and gross government debt as a % of GDP Annual government budget balance Budget surplus % of GDP Budget deficit Source: OECD World Economic Outlook

22 Deflationary threats persist 6.0 Retail Price and Consumer Price Inflation in the UK Annual percentage change in the retail price index and CPI All items retail price index (RPI) Percent Consumer price index Source: UK Statistics Commission

23 Beware deflation Falling prices are good news for consumers why should we worry?

24 Beware deflation Debts are harder to pay off Businesses make less profit Pressure on wages to fall We postpone spending

25 The Optimists Recessions create opportunities Cheaper pound will help exports People will save more Fresh growth will be (a) Balanced( exports and investment) (b) Greener Sustainable (because of a and b)

26 When will recession reallyend? When European economy picks up speed When banks have repaired their own finances When businesses start hiring When consumer confidence recovers sufficiently

27 Prospects for the North East

28 Tyneside s structural problems One child in four in relative poverty Highest regional unemployment Lowest investment in transport per head of pop Smallest stock of businesses in UK 24% of households have no one in work 60% of jobs are in the public sector Huge economic divide withinthe NE

29 Loss of industrial jobs has hit NE hard Regional Unemployment Rates Claimant Count Measure, % of the labour force North East GBP London South East Regional Claimant count rate % : North East Regional Claimant count rate % : South East Regional Claimant count rate % : London Source: ONS

30 Less of a housing slump this time United Kingdom House Prices Average house price, seasonally adjusted, s GBP London, all properties, average price North, all properties, average price United Kingdom, all properties, average price Source: Reuters EcoWin

31 Reasons to be cheerful Celebrate world class businesses Sage business management software Kilfrost - a world leader in aviation de-icing technology SMD, CDC Marine and Tomkins sea bed engineering 1/3 rd of all UK pharmaceutical output is in North East Biofuels Corp - world's largest bio-diesel plant at Seal Smith Electric Vehicles biggest manufacturer of electric vehicles in the world, based in Washington Top class research universities in Newcastle and Durham Only region which exports more per head than it imports

32 A Greener Road to NE Recovery? Renewable Energy Digital Media Life Sciences Auto Electronics

33 At the foot of recession?

34 Keep up-to-date with business stories, resources, quizzes and worksheets for your economics course.

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