1 MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: December 2006
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From this document you will learn the answers to the following questions:
What year did the percentage change in the rate of inflation in 2015?
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1 1 MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: December 2006 Economic Policy Department June 2015
2 Probability (Per Cent) 2 MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: June 2015 The June 2015 Survey was sent out on 26 May 2015 to a total of 27 economists and analysts who closely monitor the Singapore economy. This report reflects the views received from 23 respondents (a response rate of 85%) and does not represent MAS views or forecasts. GDP growth in Q was higher than expected The Singapore economy expanded by 2.6% in Q1 2015, which was higher than the median forecast of 2.0% reported in the March 2015 Survey. The economy is forecast to expand by 2.7% in 2015 For 2015 as a whole, the respondents expect the economy to grow by 2.7%, slightly below the 2.8% from the previous survey. Table 1 Median Forecasts of Macroeconomic Indicators for 2015 Mar Survey Current Survey GDP Manufacturing Finance & Insurance Construction Wholesale & Retail Trade Accommodation & Food services Private Consumption Non-oil Domestic Exports As reflected by the mean probability distribution, the most likely outcome is for the Singapore economy to grow by between 2.0 to 2.9% this year. This is unchanged from the last survey. Chart 1 Mean Probability Distribution of 2015 GDP Growth Forecasts 50 Jun 2015 Projections Mar 2015 Projections to to to to to 4.9 >5 GDP (YOY % Growth)
3 YOY % Growth MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: June For Q2 2015, the respondents expect GDP to expand by 2.7%. In comparison, the forecast was 2.9% in the March survey. Chart 2 Quarterly GDP Growth Actual Outcome Median Forecast Forecast Q4 CPI-All Items inflation and MAS Core Inflation are expected to come in at 0.0% and 1.0% respectively in 2015 The median CPI-All Items inflation forecast for 2015 fell slightly to 0.0%, from the 0.1% reported in the March survey. For Q2 2015, CPI-All Items inflation is projected at 0.4%. The respondents also expect MAS Core Inflation to be 1.0% in 2015, unchanged from the previous survey. As for the labour market, the respondents expect the unemployment rate to be 2.0% at year-end. Table 2 Median Forecasts of Other Economic Indicators for 2015 Indicators Mar Survey Current Survey CPI-All Items (year-on-year % change) MAS Core Inflation (year-on-year % change) Unemployment Rate (end-period, SA %) Exchange Rate (end-period, S$ per US$) month S$ SIBOR (end-period, percent per annum) Bank Loans (end-period, % growth)
4 Probability (Per Cent) 4 MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: June 2015 GDP is forecast to expand by 3.0% in 2016 For 2016, the respondents expect GDP growth to come in at 3.0%, while CPI-All Items and MAS Core Inflation are forecast to be 1.3% and 1.7% respectively. As reflected by the mean probability distribution, the most likely outcome is for the Singapore economy to grow by 3.0 to 3.9% next year, higher than the 2.0 to 2.9% range reported in the previous survey. Chart 3 Mean Probability Distribution of 2016 GDP Growth Forecasts 40 Jun 2015 Projections Mar 2015 Projections <0 0.0 to to to to to 4.9 >5 GDP (YOY % Growth)
5 MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: June APPENDIX: SUMMARY TABLES Table A.1 for Q (unless otherwise stated) Median Forecast Mar Survey Actual Outcome GDP Manufacturing Finance & Insurance Construction Wholesale & Retail Trade Accommodation & Food services Private Consumption Non-oil Domestic Exports CPI-All Items MAS Core Inflation Unemployment Rate (end-period, SA %) Exchange Rate (end-period, S$ per US$) month S$ SIBOR (end-period, % per annum) Bank Loans (end-period, % growth) Table A.2 Forecasts of for Q (unless otherwise stated) Median Mean Min Max GDP Manufacturing Finance & Insurance Construction Wholesale & Retail Trade Accommodation & Food services Private Consumption Non-oil Domestic Exports CPI-All Items MAS Core Inflation Unemployment Rate (end-period, SA %) Exchange Rate (end-period, S$ per US$) month S$ SIBOR (end-period, % per annum) Bank Loans (end-period, % growth)
6 6 MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: June 2015 Table A.3 Forecasts of for 2015 (unless otherwise stated) Mar Survey Current Survey Median Median Mean Min Max GDP Manufacturing Finance & Insurance Construction Wholesale & Retail Trade Accommodation & Food services Private Consumption Non-oil Domestic Exports CPI-All Items MAS Core Inflation Unemployment Rate (end-period, SA %) Exchange Rate (end-period, S$ per US$) month S$ SIBOR (end-period, % per annum) Bank Loans (end-period, % growth) Period under Forecast Table A.4 Forecasts of Quarterly GDP Growth for 2015 Median Mean Min Max 2015 Q Q Q Table A.5 Forecasts of GDP Growth and CPI-All Items Inflation for 2016 Median Mean Min Max GDP CPI-All Items MAS Core Inflation
7 MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: June Table A.6 Mean Probabilities Attached to Possible Outcomes in GDP Growth Growth Range Year-on-Year Change Forecasts for 2015 Forecasts for 2016 Probabilities (%) Growth Range Year-on-Year Change Probabilities (%) 5.0% or more % or more to 4.9% to 4.9% to 3.9% to 3.9% to 2.9% to 2.9% to 1.9% to 1.9% to 0.9% to 0.9% 6.5 Less than 0.0% 2.7 Total 100 Total 100
1 MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: December 2006
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