1 MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: December 2006
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1 1 MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: December 2006 Economic Policy Department June 2014
2 Probability (Per Cent) 2 MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: June 2014 The June 2014 Survey was sent out on 20 May 2014 to a total of 26 economists and analysts who closely monitor the Singapore economy. This report reflects the views received from 23 respondents (a response rate of 88%) and does not represent MAS views or forecasts. GDP growth in Q was lower than expected The Singapore economy expanded by 4.9% in Q1 2014, which was lower than the median forecast of 5.3% reported in the March 2014 Survey. The economy is forecast to expand by 3.8% in 2014 For 2014 as a whole, the respondents expect the economy to grow by 3.8%, unchanged from the previous survey. Table 1 Median Forecasts of Macroeconomic Indicators for 2014 Mar Survey Current Survey GDP Manufacturing Finance & Insurance Construction Wholesale & Retail Trade Accommodation & Food services Private Consumption Non-oil Domestic Exports As reflected by the mean probability distribution, the most likely outcome is for the Singapore economy to grow by between % this year. This is also unchanged from the last survey, although the mean probability has risen. Chart 1 Mean Probability Distribution of 2014 GDP Growth Forecasts 50 June 2014 Projections Mar 2014 Projections <1 1.0 to to to to 4.9 >5 GDP (YOY % Growth)
3 YOY % Growth MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: June For Q2 2014, the respondents expect GDP to expand by 3.3%. This is higher than the 3.0% that was reported in the earlier survey. Chart 2 Quarterly GDP Growth Actual Outcome Median Forecast Q4 CPI-All Items inflation and MAS Core Inflation are expected to come in at 2.2% and 2.4% respectively in 2014 The median CPI-All Items inflation forecast for 2014 fell to 2.2%, a decrease from the 2.8% reported in the March survey. For Q2 2014, CPI-All Items inflation is projected at 2.6%. The respondents also expect MAS Core Inflation to be 2.4% in 2014, unchanged from the previous survey. As for the labour market, the respondents expect the unemployment rate to be 1.9% at year-end. Table 2 Median Forecasts of Other Economic Indicators for 2014 Indicators Mar Survey Current Survey CPI-All Items (year-on-year % change) MAS Core Inflation (year-on-year % change) Unemployment Rate (end-period, SA %) Exchange Rate (end-period, S$ per US$) Bank Loans (end-period, % growth)
4 Probability (Per Cent) 4 MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: June 2014 GDP is forecast to expand by 3.9% in 2015 For 2015, the respondents expect GDP growth to come in at 3.9%, while CPI-All Items and MAS Core Inflation are both forecast to be 2.5%. As reflected by the mean probability distribution, the most likely outcome is for the Singapore economy to grow by 3.0 to 3.9% next year. Chart 3 Mean Probability Distribution of 2015 GDP Growth Forecasts 40 June 2014 Projections March 2014 Projections <0 0.0 to to to to to to 5.9 >6 GDP (YOY % Growth)
5 MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: June APPENDIX: SUMMARY TABLES Table A.1 for Q (unless otherwise stated) Median Forecast Mar Survey Actual Outcome GDP Manufacturing Finance & Insurance Construction Wholesale & Retail Trade Accommodation & Food services Private Consumption Non-oil Domestic Exports CPI-All Items MAS Core Inflation Unemployment Rate (end-period, SA %) Exchange Rate (end-period, S$ per US$) Bank Loans (end-period, % growth) Table A.2 Forecasts of for Q (unless otherwise stated) Median Mean Min Max GDP Manufacturing Finance & Insurance Construction Wholesale & Retail Trade Accommodation & Food services Private Consumption Non-oil Domestic Exports CPI-All Items MAS Core Inflation Unemployment Rate (end-period, SA %) Exchange Rate (end-period, S$ per US$) month S$ SIBOR (end-period, % per annum) Bank Loans (end-period, % growth)
6 6 MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: June 2014 Table A.3 Forecasts of for 2014 (unless otherwise stated) Mar Survey Current Survey Median Median Mean Min Max GDP Manufacturing Finance & Insurance Construction Wholesale & Retail Trade Accommodation & Food services Private Consumption Non-oil Domestic Exports CPI-All Items MAS Core Inflation Unemployment Rate (end-period, SA %) Exchange Rate (end-period, S$ per US$) month S$ SIBOR (end-period, % per annum) Bank Loans (end-period, % growth) Period under Forecast Table A.4 Forecasts of Quarterly GDP Growth for 2014 Median Mean Min Max 2014 Q Q Q Table A.5 Forecasts of GDP Growth and CPI-All Items Inflation for 2015 Median Mean Min Max GDP CPI-All Items MAS Core Inflation
7 MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: June Table A.6 Mean Probabilities Attached to Possible Outcomes in GDP Growth Growth Range Year-on-Year Change Forecasts for 2014 Forecasts for 2015 Probabilities (%) Growth Range Year-on-Year Change Probabilities (%) 5.0% or more % or more to 4.9% to 5.9% to 3.9% to 4.9% to 2.9% to 3.9% to 1.9% to 2.9% 16.5 Less than 1.0% to 1.9% to 0.9% 2.9 Less than 0.0% 1.1 Total 100 Total 100
1 MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: December 2006
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