Connecting Climate Change, Air Pollution and Human Health

Transcription

1 Connecting Climate Change, Air Pollution and Human Health J. Jason West Department of Environmental Sciences & Engineering University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

2 Climate Change What s certain 1) Greenhouse gases cause warming by absorbing infrared radiation. John Tyndall ( ) Conducted lab experiments in 1860s and discovered that CO 2, CH 4, H 2 O are greenhouse gases, but N 2, O 2, Ar are not.

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4 Climate Change What s certain 2) Greenhouse gas concentrations are increasing, caused by human emissions.

5 Greenhouse gas concentrations over the past years, from ice cores

6 Climate Change - What s certain 3) Global temperatures are increasing (0.85 C since 1875).

7 Loss of Arctic Sea Ice 2005 IPCC, Minimum summer extent (September) NASA

8 Other changes consistent with increasing temperature Observations of global rise in sea level red: satellites

9 What s Certain Three undisputed truths: - Greenhouse gases cause warming by absorbing infrared radiation. - Greenhouse gas concentrations are increasing, caused by human emissions. - Global temperatures are increasing (0.7 C = 1.3 F since 1860).

10 Climate Change Attribution: High Confidence It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20 th century. IPCC, 2013

11 Climate Change Uncertain Future Year 2100 under no climate policy: 4 (3 to 5.5) C relative to today. IPCC, 2013

12 Climate Change Uncertain Future

13 Impacts of Climate Change - Water resources - Agriculture & forestry - Coastal regions - Endangered species, ecosystems, and biological resources - Human health - Industry and built infrastructure

14 World Primary Energy, IPCC, 2007

15 CO 2 has a long lifetime! Fraction Remaining in Atmosphere Year 36% remains in the atmosphere after 100 years!

16 Stabilizing CO 2 concentrations Range of uncertainty for stabilizing at 550 ppm

17 Global Air Pollution Air Pollution by Particulate Matter (PM 2.5 ) and Ozone has important effects on health and the environment.

18 Global Air Pollution Megacities & densely industrialized regions connected by long-range transport. Influence on European emissions on ozone (Duncan et al., 2008) Emissions of ozone precursors from North America cause more mortalities outside of NA than within (Anenberg et al., 2009)

19 Global and regional mortality, deaths yr -1 Regions Mean North America 34,400 Europe 32,800 Former Soviet Union 10,600 Middle East 16,200 India 118,000 East Asia 203,000 Southeast Asia 33,300 South America 6,970 Africa 17,300 Australia 469 Global 472,000 Respiratory mortality, deaths yr -1 (1000 km 2 ) -1, multi-model mean in each grid cell, 14 models Silva et al. (2013)

20 Global and regional mortality, deaths yr -1 Regions Mean North America 43,000 Europe 154,000 Former Soviet Union 128,000 Middle East 88,700 India 397,000 East Asia 1,049,000 Southeast Asia 158,000 South America 16,800 Africa 77,500 Australia 1,250 Global 2,110,000 CPD+LC mortality, deaths yr -1 (1000 km 2 ) -1, multi-model mean in each grid cell, 6 models Silva et al. (2013)

21 Future PM 2.5 -related mortality* (multi-model averages) Mortality (million deaths.yr -1 ) Africa India East Asia N. America * PM 2.5 reported by models RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6 RCP8.5 RCP2.6 4 models RCP8.5 4 models CPD+LC Premature PM 2.5 Mortality in 2100 (two scenarios) deaths yr -1 (1000 km 2 ) -1 21

22 Impact of Climate Change: PM 2.5 mortality (II) Mortality (million deaths.yr -1 ) North America South America Europe FSU Africa India East Asia South Asia Australia Middle East Global CPD+LC Premature PM 2.5 Mortality, Estimated for RCP deaths yr -1 (1000 km 2 ) -1 22

23 Co-benefits of GHG Mitigation for Air Quality Objective: Analyze global co-benefits for air quality and human health via both mechanisms, in scenarios to ) Immediate and Local Air pollutants Air pollution Sources & Policies GHGs Climate Change Human Health 2) Long-Term and Global

24 Results PM 2.5 Concentration Global population-weighted, annual average PM 2.5

25 Results Global Premature Mortality Mortality (Millions yr -1 ) O3 REF O3 RCP4.5 PM2.5 REF PM2.5 RCP4.5 Global Year Projection of global population and baseline mortality rates from International Futures. PM 2.5 co-benefits (CPD + lung cancer mortality) 2030: 0.4± : 1.1± : 1.5±0.6 Ozone co-benefits (respiratory mortality) 2030: 0.09± : 0.2± : 0.7±0.05 West et al. (2013)

26 Results Global Premature Mortality West et al. (2013)

27 Red: High valuation (2030 global mean $3.6 million) Blue: Low valuation (2030 global mean $1.2 million) Green: Median and range of global C price (13 models) West et al. (2013) Results Valuation of Avoided Mortality

28 Co-benefits: conclusions Global abatement of GHG emissions brings substantial air quality and human health co-benefits. Global GHG mitigation (RCP4.5 relative to REF) causes 0.5±0.2 million avoided deaths in 2030, 1.3±0.5 in 2050, and 2.2±0.8 in 2100 Global average monetized co-benefits are $ / ton CO 2 Greater than previous estimates Greater than abatement costs in 2030 and The direct co-benefits from air pollutant emission reductions exceed those via slowing climate change. West et al. (2013)